Gori DOESN'T fall, Russia NOT advancing on Tblisi
UPDATE: FOX NEWS and official Georgian sources were incorrect.
Reported by Lawyers, Gun & Money citing FOX News:
Russian forces swept across Georgia on Monday, capturing the town of Gori and moving to within 35 miles of the capital city Tbilisi, FOX News confirmed.Georgia reportedly was rushing more than 1,000 troops to Tbilisi in anticipation of a battle with Russian troops.
Russian armor, meanwhile, moved beyond two breakaway provinces and seized a military base and police stations in the country's west, officials said.
Regime change imminent. Full stop.
Next up? IMHO? Ukraine (or at least the Russian speaking eastern half).
I view these development as being bad for the United States but also are the consequence of nearly eight years of our "Mayberry Machiavellian" neo-conservatives running the show in Washington. Early today, John McCain again urged NATO membership for Georgia. Eh, that is utterly obsolete advice.
Update: George Bush circa 2005:
Back in 2005, speaking before a crowd of more than 150,000 exuberant Georgians cheering "Bushi! Bushi!", President Bush made a promise to the people of that former Soviet republic: "The path of freedom you have chosen is not easy, but you will not travel it alone. Americans respect your courageous choice for liberty. And as you build a free and democratic Georgia, the American people will stand with you."So where was Bush as Russia launched a major military attack against Georgia? Monkeying around with the U.S. women's volleyball players -- and otherwise amusing himself at the Beijing Olympics. This is not to suggest that Bush should have sent in the Marines. But his impotence in the face of such a gravely destabilizing move highlights not only his personal loss of stature, but how deeply he has diminished American authority on the world stage generally and, particularly, in the eyes of Russia.
The lesson here? Don't write checks we cannot cash.
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Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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)....a foreign policy argument as I've seen. Nobody cares about "moral authority". It has been and remains a question of interests. Mind you, I'm not quite sure what Putin's ultimate calculation of interest is, here; Georgia's about as big a place as he can tackle, given that Ukraine would be a nut several orders of magnitude tougher to crack and the Baltics have formal NATO guarantees. In the end he's just going to scare a bunch of folks back to a focus on Mother Russia, and his oil revenues have limits (both long-term and immediate.)
Regardless, the Georgian attempt to settle the breakway-region question looks like it was a stupid one, given that they had no formal guarantees of any sort from anybody. If this is a western failure of any sort, it's one of the sillier sort of internationalist lefty thinking that still imagines that states have friends. I'll grant that Bush has talked that talk enough, not least with the "I can work with this guy" rhetoric, but he's been moving in the right direction by pushing for the missle defense system in Eastern Europe regardless of what Vlad does or does not want.
Face it, Bill. All the international indignation in the world doesn't mean a damned thing to a guy with independent resources who is willing to push armored divisions across borders. That's the basic reason I always wanted the Ba'athists gone, too. Resources + anti-American desires (meaning any desires that conflict with our own) = trouble.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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)Bull. Everybody cares about moral authority. Now, you could argue that we just dress up our interests in "moral authority" and I wouldn't argue with you, but moral authority is the language in which things are discussed and parties are persuaded and the body politic is moved.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )to discuss things and persuade others, but when someone shows a willingness to do their talking at the end of a gun the question becomes how many divisions is moral authority worth? Putin doesn't seem to regard Western tut-tutting as highly as Westerners do.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )Aggression is punished and dissuaded by joint action, and joint action can be mustered more easily when we have strong moral arguments. Now, it's true that self-interest lies just about an inch under the surface of moral arguments... we are always asking ourselves, what rules do we want applied to our affairs? But parties that believe that rules don't apply to them will not have much success applying those rules to others.
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| parent )'quite a few' is a bit vague. And how many moral arguments persuaded Russia to sign off on UN action in Bosnia, back in the day when the rules supposedly applied to us? Or how did they mitigate Chechnya? Russia ignored these rules and the possibility of joint action long before Bush was elected and Iraq was invaded, and in the interests of peace with a nuclear power the West looked the other way. Pretending that Russia has been emboldened to buck Western opinion because of the Iraq war, or that the United States had (but lost) some method at its disposal to influence them, is disingenuous and ignores recent history.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )when we have the political support to make him care. Having spent 8 years squandering that support and blowing foreign policy opportunities worldwide, we can't make a dent and he knows it. And is now cheerfully outmaneuvering us to ensure GAZPROM keeps its monopoly on Central Asian energy markets.
But "we don't care" what foreign nationals think of our policies and their consequences. Right?
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )And how exactly do we do that? Before this supposed dark age of blowing foreign policy opportunities worldwide, how did we make a dent in Hutus slaughtering Tutsis, Serbians slaughtering Bosnians, Serbians slaughtering Kosovars, Saddam slaughtering Kurds and Shia? Through the force of arms once it was decided enough was enough, pretending anything else works against the likes of Putin is sheer fantasy.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )Even, say, gray market negotiating? The threat of force is certainly *a* component of foreign policy negotiations (just as in certain less reputable domestic ones), but unfortunately in the age of Cheneyism we've been acting like it's the *only* component.
States can be leveraged in many ways aside from ending every phrase with "or we'll bomb you." Pressure on their allies, influence trading, offers of financial assistance (i.e. bribery), offers of aid to help them negotiate with third parties, moral embarrassment, other types of embarrassment or threat of embarrassment, etc.
Unfortunately, the invasion of Iraq burned a lot of our allies and made cooperating with the US a serious political liability for governments around the world, making it harder for us to secure negotiating partners or apply political pressure in situations like this. Add to that our loss of credibility/influence with the UN, Bush's detested status at home, and the fact that our military forces are stretched to the limit trying to create the semblance of civil society in Iraq, and our leverage against powerful states like Russia and China are close to nil.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )None of the techniques you mentioned stopped a single Serb bullet in the 90s, when our leverage against Russia was supposedly greater than what it is now, and that was just Russia acting out of pan-Slavic brotherhood. Nor did they help a single Chechen. Now I'm suppose to believe those techniques would have stopped Putin from launching an armed incursion along Russia's border, which I'm guessing he figured was in Russia's best interests even if the rest of the world disapproved? Excuse me, but given Russia's track record of disregarding Western opinion and acting in its own interests before Bush was in office, I find it rather hard to believe Bush has weakened America's imagine in the eyes of the world enough that America would have been in a position to prevent this latest action.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )"pan-Slavic brotherhood" had nothing to do with it, it was an attempt to throw sand in the gears of having US allies in formerly east bloc countries (which became the even more forceful policy of NATO enlargement under Bush). There are good and bad points to these policies, but as usual this administration only looks at the points that favor their view.
Every country acts in their own interests, but pushing for NATO expansion and missile defense directly on Russian borders guarantees a push back.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )because it's peripheral to the argument at hand. While pan-Slavic brotherhood is an argument I've seen here and there that (for me) possess historical credibility, it could well have been push back on Russia's part as well. I'm not terribly interested in digging too far into it . However, in my opinion, just because we can expect Russian push back is not enough reason to drop these policies.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )you argue (correct me if I'm wrong) that our leverage against Russia doesn't exist or doesn't make a difference. That's true currently, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't true in the early 90s. But that misses the point of the "moral suasion" argument, which is that we're not really trying to use leverage directly on the Russians or Chinese (and no one's trying to use it on us, either). The point is that it makes a difference to smaller countries looking at who they should hook up with. It's basically the idea that if you overplay your hand, your opponents will pick up the pieces. If you overpromise to Georgia (which I think most people agree the US did) then when something like this Russian incursion comes up, it sends a signal to smaller countries about who's serious and who to work with. When you directly threaten governments (like we do with Iran and Venezuela to take two examples) you virtually push them into the arms of your opponents.
My problem with this administration is that they don't seem to consider these issues when formulating policy. There's a place for "confidence building" moves, for example when Iran helped us with intelligence on the Taliban or with fighting drug trafficking in Afghanistan. Better to work together on areas we can agree on, that generally leads to lessen some tensions and opens up new areas for discussion and negotiation. Bellicosity may seem to work better (especially for domestic consumption) but long term it tends to close off areas of negotiation that could prove to be useful.
I'm not saying that we wouldn't have issues with other countries even if we tried more of a conciliatory approach, there will always be differences that can't be papered over. Intentionally inflaming and aggravating differences, though, doesn't seem to have worked too well. And making statements like Bush did stating "Such an action is unacceptable" or like Cheney did stating "Russian aggression must not go unanswered" without any way of backing those statements up just makes one seem like a completely unserious and weak person (and by extension, an unserious and weak country). That sends a signal to other countries, and that creates a long term problem.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )our leverage against Russia doesn't exist or doesn't make a difference. That's true currently, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't true in the early 90s
This is most certainly true, but it has damned little to do with Shrub. Right after the collapse of the USSR, the Russians were an impoverished, demoralised bunch of folks who had just lost a war in Afghanistan and were in the process of being pushed out of the Central Asian successor republics by ex-apparatchicks who decided that Turkic nationalism was the way to consolidate power. 2 decades on, their non-resource-extraction economy has stabilized, their resource-extraction economy is booming, they've made efforts to rebuild their military to modern standards and they no longer feel the same angst over having a 70 year way of life ripped away from them, that last being a natural effect of the actuarial tables.
So of course our influence was bound to wane. All the more reason why my general policy is to continue kicking an opponent while they're down; unless they're crippled, they're gonna get back up again sooner or later. But assuming that we weren't in the mood to keep them down, all efforts going forward should have been and should contiue to be ones where we hamper and thwart such ambitions of theirs as do not suit us.
And making statements like Bush did stating "Such an action is unacceptable" or like Cheney did stating "Russian aggression must not go unanswered" without any way of backing those statements up just makes one seem like a completely unserious and weak person (and by extension, an unserious and weak country).
This I agree with. The obvious solution is to find quiet ways to harm them. States have no friends. You cooperate when convenient and then look for ways to f&^$% them the next, assuming that is convenient. Your point on Georgia being "overplayed" is a good one, but that has nothing to do with moral suasion. We pushed to get the Balitcs into a formal umbrella and managed to do so. Then we pushed to get the far Eastern Europeans into a formal umbrella and we did so. Then we pushed to get Georgia and Ukraine into a formal umbrella and the Russians pushed back. It was a foregone conclusion that they would do so at some point, you just don't know what the actual line is until it is crossed. Now the next round starts.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )if you think that a country will naturally get back up sooner or later, why turn them into a blood enemy by abusing them when they're down? Aren't there enough centuries old grudges in the world without Guerrerism creating even more? Also, they're doing a pretty good job of thwarting our ambitions, and with the current administration in place it looks like we're getting outplayed.
To lead one needs followers, among foreign countries Bush has been casting them aside, almost as if intentionally. You also have to show that you share goals with them, that there's a legitimate modus vivendi. Bush hasn't been doing so well with that, either.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )I would say we had more influence in the early 90s than now because the collapse of communism offered unsure times with all sorts of possibilities, but that since then things have settled down and Russia regained some of its bearings, and as such has been growing away from our influence. It's my contention that this would have happened whether Florida went for Gore or Bush in 2000.
I'll agree that we should not promise things we can't deliver. In regards to Georgia whether we did that or not is unclear, but we certainly shouldn't have encouraged uprisings in Iraq in 1991 that we had no intention of supporting.
I disagree with you on Iran and Venezuela, we've taken more grief than we've given in those two cases. They were lost causes no matter what we did. And I wouldn't call limited cooperation between us and Iran confidence building anything. Sure, their leadership is willing to use us in any way that is convenient to them, but I'd say that it's naive to think it would lead to anything like a thaw in our relations with them. I doubt anything like that is coming around until they get new leadership (and not from their phony elections). Neither do I think that the only way to interpret the statements by Bush and Cheney is that we must send in the Marines, they could serve as the foundations for greater cooperation for us and the smaller countries you talk about.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )how in the world do you see that? What are we doing other than making more statements that we can't back up with anything? McCain is even worse, calling for a US Security Council resolution (pointless), a NATO emergency session (pointless) and a visit by the Rice to Europe (pointless, since Sarkozy is already more involved in the cease fire than the US is). Remember, McCain was pushing for NATO membership for Georgia for the past several years. Would that have been a good decision? Would NATO go to war with Russia over this?
I'll take your comments on Iran and Venezuela as a joke. As far as I know, they haven't backed successful or unsuccessful coups against our government. I agree that new leadership could open new possibilities, both in their government and in our own.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )and I suspect many of Russia's other neighbors are willing to enter into agreements with the US in response to this. Would NATO be willing to go to war with Russia over Georgia? Probably not, which is why I suspect Georgia won't become a NATO member anytime soon. But NATO is not the US and vice versa. By taking such stands for the former Soviet republics the US opens the door for strengthening our relations with them, even if the rest of NATO sees strong ties to them as threats to their welfare states.
The comments on Iraq and Venezuela were in the context of argument at hand, and the argument at hand is the actions of the Bush administration. As far as I know, they haven't backed successful or unsuccessful coup against either government.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )...finally admitting that all those multi-lateral talking shops are just silly window dressing. I certainly don't mind paying lip service to such jokes on the theory that it keeps the clowns in Berkeley quiet(er), but we both know that the pattern is well established; the talking shops get used as a fig-leaf when convenient for the Powers That Be, and they're meaningless otherwise.
Would that have been a good decision? Would NATO go to war with Russia over this?
Yes, it would have been a good decision, and no, because Russia would never have attacked a formal member of the alliance. Of course, the converse is that the alliance will never let in somebody in formal conflict with Russia. They beat us to the punch on this one, alas. Maybe the Ukrainians will get luckier.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )and useless when it isn't. Not a terribly helpful analysis. Also not terribly helpful is the Cheneyite habit of announcing one's intention to flout every multilateral agreement or organization that comes within flouting distance.
Fact is, international politics is quite a bit like domestic politics. Nations may not have "friends" but they are most definitely persuadable by many methods. The ability to influence & persuade leads directly to prestige, leverage, & power, not to mention improved chances for success in one's endeavors. Other nations can be bribed, cajoled, sweet-talked, hoodwinked, bargained with in ways that directly & inexpensively benefit US policy & interests. Free riders can be exposed & punished, all for fractions of the cost of mobilizing for war every time someone looks at you funny.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )....when the sides of the table with all the money and guns agree on what needs to be done. As with the rest of human experience, those who matter, do, and those who don't, don't.
And I'm all for hoodwinking, bribery, etc. The stuff of life, truly. But you aren't going to bribe or cajole a Russia that's been unloading crude at $140/bbl and is feeling back-of-the-pack.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )but the dozens of secondary players and pressure-points around the world – the ones so effectively alienated by Bush & Cheney – which matter here.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent ).....Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, Georgians, Poles, Czecks and Ukrainians sitting back and wondering just what they can do. Sure, the Russians are getting uppity and they're a couple of orders of magnitude bigger than their neighbors, but that darn Bush just annoys them so.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )are more relevant here.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )but they won't work if your words and actions contradict each other.
As far as NATO membership, it never would have happened because the other members would never allow it. It also isn't a good idea, first of all because NATO is an alliance without a purpose and secondly because Europe learned in 1914 that multiple overlapping and interlocking alliances tend to inflate small problems into big wars. You also neglect the fact that Russia has Europe by the short and curlies over energy supplies. That's more pushback.
But we disagree in that it had to be that way. An aggressive and deeply stupid foreign policy causes similar actions in return. Doing one's best to find common cause with other nations won't necessarily reduce all frictions, but inflaming them intentionally is certainly the wrong answer to international disputes.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )You must watch a lot of Westerns. Not sure what significant or useful insights you think that brings to the analysis of foreign policy though.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I don't have the slightest belief in white hats. All hats are black at all times. That is by far the safest and most statistically sound interpretation of human history.
Beyond that, I'm simply in favor of the most effective means of manipulation available. It just seldom happens to be anything as inane as a bunch of Great Power representatives sitting around a table telling each other how immoral (or wonderfully moral) they're being. For obvious reasons, I might add.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )Now I understand.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Funny you mention Serbs. They seem to have lost every square inch of ground they gained through aggression/ethnic cleansing. Thanks to NATO support when Russia stymied UNSC.
Non sequitur. We've never been able to dissuade Russia from anything, except maybe ballistic missiles in Cuba. But we have been able to effectively counteract their influence -- sometimes more, sometimes less. At the moment we can do, admit it, absolutely nothing to help a staunch ally. McCain's threats of kicking Russia out of the G8 are as impotent as they are pointless.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )as you admit 'We've never been able to dissuade Russia from anything' is exactly my point. This was the way of things before George Bush, as it will be the way after George Bush. So called moral authority was of no use to the Hungarians in 56 or the Czechs in 68, as it would be of no use to the Georgians now, even if we had this magic bullet. It took force to restabilize the Balkans and cede Serbia's gains, not moral authority, and whatever it is Putin is up to it will take force to reverse that as well. The only question that really matters is whether or not it's in our interests to try and reverse it, because even before the Iraq war we never had the means in our hands to prevent it in the first place.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )What exactly do you think happened that led up to the events of 1989? Reagan's policy of bluster and peripheral engagement gradually evolved into a partnership of sorts with Gorbachev which led to a completely bloodless defeat of the USSR. Our loss of that kind of influence with the Kremlin, along with the Soviet nuclear stockpile, is one of the great looming foreign policy dangers of our time.
Let me put it to you this way. The NATO attacks on Serbia were largely ineffective from a military point of view -- as people are delighted to point out when time comes around to make fun of Wesley Clark. It was the political pressure NATO members collectively brought against Serbia which caused them to stand down.
Empty bluster, on the other hand, is less than useless. It's a way of demonstrating your nation's powerlessness.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )I disagree that Reagan and Gorbachev had a partnership. Gorbachev was a capitulation on Moscow's part to the unworkable situation they were in. Minus a Stalin or a Mao willing to shed the blood of millions the Communist terror machines lost their potency. The Chinese got around this by allowing people to get rich and by showing they were still willing to run over college students with tanks. Gorbachev tried to allow people to get rich, but was unwilling to unleash the tanks, and as such the Soviet Union fell. So the way I see it we never had that much influence with the Kremlin. We did have influence with Yeltsin, but he proved not to up for the task at hand, and as such the old apparatchiks have worked their way back. I will agree with you Russia has the potential to become extremely dangerous. I'm not much of one for invoking Nazis into many arguments but right now Russia has many of the hallmarks of Weimar Germany. However, the situation is fluid and exactly what path Russia decides to take remains to be seen. They do need to be watched, and closely.
The NATO attacks were not as effective as they could have been, I think a willingness to commit ground forces would have resolved things quicker. But absent such attacks the political pressure required to cause Serbia to stand down quickly fades. Remember that there were several countries who wanted to end the sanctions against Iraq set up in response to Saddam's non-compliance with the 1991 cease fire agreements. It seems without a shooting war there is little desire in the West to provide a united front.
I'm not sure about the empty bluster you are referring to here. I don't recall any threats being made that we didn't have any intention on following through on. And I see no harm in trying to isolate Russia as a consequence for their recent actions, it makes more sense then pretending it never happened.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )to torture myself I guess. We'll need to pick this up tomorrow. Needless to say I see it differently.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )And it's baseball themed! Here.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )diplomacy works again soon, I have no doubt.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )was playing the part you have assigned Putin, the Hutus, Serbians and Saddam?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )since Gori did not fall and Russian tanks are not advancing on Tblisi;
Even if FOX News and the government of Georgia wanted us to believe that.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )So the US has magically regained its moral authority and stopped the Russian advance? I very much doubt it. What Putin hoped to gain from this remains unknown, but so far I've seen nothing to indicate the reaction from the West has had any effect on his plans, just as it wouldn't have if we had never invaded Iraq.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )than what Dubya or McCain think.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )why should Russia care what McCain thinks?
Wall Street Journal:
Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )...more attention to him if he didn't have that contract.
DMITRY: Vlad, the foreign policy advisor to one of the U.S. Presidential candidates is calling for us to cut short our...um....humanitarian intervention in Georgia!
VLADIMIR: So tell me why I give Chechen's frozen behind about this, Dmitry Anatolyevich?
DMITRY: But Vlad, he's a Honest Broker! He is, in some unidentifiable way, somehow more...neutral...than all those other Americans and Europeans that are telling us the same thing! We _have_ to listen to his siren song!
VLADIMIR: Damn him! Damn him and his moral suasion! I can feel our front in Abkhazia collapsing already under his steely, not-for-profit gaze! Quick, get the FSB on the line. We need to e-mail him a fake RFP that appears to be coming from a server in Tblisi!
DMITRY: Brilliant, Vlad, brilliant!
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )I'm sure you could fit in how the number of white girls in McCain's campaign commercials affect the situation, if you put your mind to it. And for my part McCain employing lobbyists from Georgia rather than from say Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, or Hamas is a feature, not a bug.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )a foreign policy expert on my team who has the best interests of the US in mind.
--Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President. - Bruce Springsteen
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| parent )become fair game again?
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )Thanks
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )shouldn't there be equal opportunity whining about this foul?
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )not from.
Goes to the McCain campaign's credibility on the issue.
Shot.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Even Britain grows weary of standing with us.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )There are thousands of reasons why Russia should be more concerned with Europe's opinion over Bush's, McCain's, and Obama's.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )proving they know how to play this game.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )is just an old-fashioned term for "bargaining position," an expression hopefully less distasteful to the neo-Nietzschean sensibilities around here.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )is one way to protect your interests without necessitating the moving of lead soldiers around the sand table. An alien concept to some, I know. It's also one of those things you don't appreciate you had, until it's gone.
Ask the Pope, he commands no armies these days that I'm aware of.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Georgia is our ally, until a few days ago the third largest member of the coalition of the willing in Iraq and thus far our government is doing nothing except issuing strongly worded statements.
How do we persuade future allies to take us at our word?
Also, I note that the most strident criticism of Bush is coming from places like Powerline, which compared Dubya to Neville Chamberlain, today.
Heh!
= = =
Powerline quote:
Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Then what is it to suggest? Bush could have written a sternly-worded letter and Putin would have backed down like a chastised schoolgirl, if only we had retained our "moral authority"?
As obvious as it is that Bush has been a joke and a near-complete failure at foreign relations, this really isn't his fault, nor is there anything America can do about it unless we are willing to return to the Cold War. (Maybe not even then; we didn't save Czechoslovakia, did we?)
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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)I'm not so sure about that. After pushing the Russians by withdrawing from the ABM treaty, pushing missile defense on their borders and pushing NATO expansion on their borders, I'm pretty sure the Russians aren't very open to suggestions from us. Now things may have played out exactly the same without those issues, but to think that this action of theirs comes out of the clear blue sky with no aggravating factors lets the current administration off too lightly IMO.
I agree with Bill's comment that you don't write checks you can't cash. I'm not so sure this will lead to a stampede towards NATO or American protection, since we've just shown that all the pretty words don't mean much.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )What were we going to suggest? That Putin, a man whose popularity rests on tough-talking nationalism, should simply ignore the Georgian declaration of war and cede them South Ossetia? Not gonna happen, Hank.
If the Georgians really thought we would fight Russia on their behalf, then the Georgians are fools. We only blow up countries that can't blow us up in return. (How funny, by the way, that the narrative in the US is that Russia is "overreacting". If this is an overreaction, what was Iraq?)
FWIW, I don't think it's too likely that Russia will annex its neighbor. Putin will be satisfied with simply winning the war.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )I think a 'the top ten reasons you hate George Bush' open thread would have made more sense. It could have at least been (intentionally) funny.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )Don't let oversensitivity to BDS be your sole guide.
Fred Kaplan
GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )there are some other reports contradicting the Fox News' version of events. See my updated Russo-Georgian War diary below.
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)News reports differ -- some Georgian spokesmen are claiming Gori and Denaki have been seized by Russia while Russian spokesmen deny the claims.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )...journalists in Gori reported that the city had not been occupied. Monday afternoon.
Hmm... Should I believe Fox or the BBC? That's a real toughie, not.
I've found American war coverage to be dismal generally. The Times is useless. You can really tell our news organizations lack people on the ground. Too many years of cutbacks.
--Of course not!
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| parent )and the eagerness to rely on 'consultants' who bring their own agenda.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Link
and this:
Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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)Carter or Clinton would have responded differently?
In any case, this may end up being a straight trade--Georgia for Iran.
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)It’s all part of the plan.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )I prefer to believe Georgia actually thought it could win or that America actually would stick its neck out to help.
How much money did the Republic of Georgia pay Randy Scheunemann anyway? Did they get fair value?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )I figured you guys were getting at the same thing, just from different angles.
--"That Sam-I-am! That Sam-I-am! I do not like that Sam-I-am!"- Dr. Seuss
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| parent )As for Iran, what exactly shall we do?
Blow up their nuclear reactor? Russia will sell them another one AND incorporate Iran into their natural gas cartel giving Russia powerful leverage over all of Europe.
Blow up Iran's air force? Russia will sell them more planes.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Where's our moral authority when we need it?
McCain is being allowed way too many 'senior moments' yet the campaign keeps hammering away on his supposed superior experience and the news media just laps it up.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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)for the United States from the beginning . . .
Anyway, get your War Nerd right here:
Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )I think it may be a bridge too far for the Russians too.
I think Kierkegaard is right on this one when he said:
Russia trying too hard to prove its penis size is going to force Ukraine and the EU to seriously arm itself. Which should take some of the pressure of the U.S. for playing globocop.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )The eastern half of Ukraine is ethnic Russian. Sure, the western half will become even more virulently pro-Western yet will that matter if the eastern half decides to secede?
I predict Putin the Predator has Ukraine firmly in mind as well.
NATO? Will Germany agree to be confrontational with Russia when they need Russian natural gas?
Bomb Iran? Tehran joins Moscow in a very powerful Eurasian natural gas cartel. Will the EU accept significant energy disruptions to fight for Ukraine?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Ukraine has the capability to go nuclear (as Germany does.)*
* Please disregard parenthetical... Diplomacy joke.
--More Wagster!
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| parent )kept nuclear warheads. Russia will never invade them--beyond border skirmishes and stirring up trouble in the Crimea and the east--because they're the only one of the former republics actually crazy enough to nuke Moscow.
If you'll pardon the quote from Wikipedia:
"Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and declaration Ukrainian independence in 1991, Ukraine inherited one of the biggest and most powerful armies in Europe. The Ukrainian military was equipped with modern tanks, APCs, artillery, missile defense technology and nuclear weapons...The Armed Forces of Ukraine included approximately 780,000 personnel, 7000 armored vehicles, 6,500 tanks, and 2,500 tactical nuclear missiles when they were established."
Bear in mind that in the minds of most Ukrainians, Russia has already nuked them--at Chernobyl.
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| parent )are all that shall be at issue. The idea that Russia will attempt the conquest of Georgian regions of Georgia or the Ukrainian regions of Ukraine would be profoundly foolish.
Much of this is tribal -- Russia for the Russian speakers, Ukraine for the Ukrainian speakers -- and left over issues from the lines drawn when the USSR disintegrated.
Yes, Europe would defend "Ukraine" but is Crimea sufficiently part of Ukraine?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )An aged but vicious monster. It could conquer half of Europe in a week--it needs no defense from them. As for the secession of the Russian-speakers of the Ukraine, there are two separate and disctinct forces at work in the Ukraine. The first is political, the second national. Because the Ukraine's elections have been so close, it's generally assumed that this reflects a Russian-Ukraine split in the electorate. It doesn't. It's an oldfashioned hardline socialist vs reformed Euro-style socialist split, the Russians favoring the former. The Ukrainians are the worst capitalists in Europe--when large numbers of them fought against the Soviet Union in WWII they did so as Ukrainian National Socialists (bear in mind that the Fascism of those times was as state-subsidized and state-dependent as Communism). When large numbers of them fled to Canada after the war they remained so hard-core that Edmonton was called 'Redmonton' from the large numbers who settled there.
However, when it comes to nationalism, that's another matter. No Slavic nation is more nuttily mystical than the Ukrainians. Ukrainians are taught in school that theirs is the cradle of the 'Aryan' race. I'm not kidding. And if Russia attempts to reclaim the Crimea, the Ukrainians will react in a way that will make the Serbs look like peaceniks. What's interesting to me in all of this is the faint damns coming out of Kyev re Russia's Georgian invasion. Looks to me like maybe they were just as happy to see the Georgians humilated.
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| parent )Then why is it vital to admit them to NATO?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent );)
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| parent )w. the '...' vs. '--'.
It created more of a punchline feel.
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| parent )....Georgia will not be gobbled up, only shorn of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.
also, Georgia is a tiny country on the Periphery and despite the fact that I myself would like to bait the bear...I know that's a mug's game.
the Ukraine is something else...there is brewing trouble over the Russian Black Sea Fleet and its place in the Crimea, Russia wants the Autonomous Republic of Crimea...and wants to take if from Ukraine.
I don't think that will be allowed, despite the very great talents of this man:
Best Wishes, Traveller
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| parent )Full link
10% of the Crimean population speaks Ukranian. Russia will not seek to attack or annex all of Ukraine (merely those regions where the Russian population feels aggrieved by the government in Kiev) just as Russia not seek to annex all of Georgia.
This is more tribal (language and religion based) that nation-state based. Of note: The Crimea (and Sevastopol) already is an independent autonomous region within the Ukraine.
= = =
If we are to resist Russia in the Ukraine (as we should) we must help Europe free itself from dependence on petroleum and natural gas.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )I don't think it matters if Russia makes their invasion "limited".
They're getting their pass in Georgia and if they try that in Ukraine we'll all get a reminder of how World War I started -- multiple people making multiple stupid decisions.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )already . . .
Crimean anti-NATO protests of 2006
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )I'm with Trav on this.
That said, this is the way big wars start -- everyone thinking everyone else won't make a big fuss about such a tiny place.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )of Ukraine. Rather, Russia will fund activities in regions having low percentages of Ukrainian speaking people seeking to sow dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian government in Kiev.
That said, if Ukraine fires on the Russian Black Sea fleet and Russian paratroopers land in the Crimea, what would we do?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Brevis esse laboro, obscurus fio.
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| parent )tell Erich von Stroheim! The Germans can still win this game!
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )Saakashvili intended to make the predictable Russian reaction a cause célèbre expecting the West would fully support Georgia against the might of Russian armed for