Maybe it was a mental recession after all


If there's one word to describe our economy over the past twelve months, I'd say "resilient". The housing bubble burst around a year ago, oil prices have been ratcheting upward and the value of the dollar has been falling to historic lows, yet our economy still grew by 1.9% in the second quarter. I doubt the positive GDP growth will last into the third quarter, especially if the Fed decides to increase interest rates, but I wouldn't put money on it (the GDP or what the Fed will do). Plus, the 1.9% number could be revised downward (as it was in the fourth quarter last year, to -0.2%). Also, we won't have tax rebate checks to play with this quarter.

But be that as it may, there are a lot of prognosticators and experts with egg on their collective faces, going by what they said three months ago. There also appears to be a gap--more like a canyon--between GDP and perception, according to Gallup:

Currently, 76% of Americans hold negative views about the economy, while 14% hold mixed views, and only 8% hold positive views.

All that economic down-talking by Democrats appears to have paid off.

Courtesy of Engram, below is a graph of per capita GDP, comparing ours to the others in the G8 (excluding Russia):

But the following graph is what I believe to be the real secret behind our economic resilience:

Americans are gosh darned productive, even with all these bloggers and commenters wiling away the hours. None of this means that everything is going swimmingly, of course, just not as bad as the down-talkers have down-talked.

Things aren't so bad in the Seattle area, but they're not so good either. New housing construction is basically dead, and the only things being developed in new plats are weeds. Median home prices have dropped by around 10%, job growth has stalled, and unemployment is up compared to twelve months ago. But strangely enough, I work in real estate and I'm as busy as I've even been.
--

"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

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deleted (#108250)
by JKC

nt

Those more grounded in the real world (#108249)
by JKC

may wish to read this.

O goody (#108090)
by pjotrk

So all the reports of a worldwide recession because of the housing bubble collapse in the US are false. US Banks going belly up are a sign that things aren't that bad? Banks getting in trouble all over the world because of the stupid mortgages in the US, mortgages of the type that any 12 year old could tell you were an idiotic idea, are a sign that things aren't that bad?

"Americans are gosh darned productive"
Yup they are with more of them working more and more hours for less money, less benefits, less medical coverage and less job security.

Now I'm not in the US and I know that. Makes me wonder in what country Bird Dog is in. Bird Dog you really should spend a little time digging a bit deeper and perhaps also learn to look at the bigger picture.

Rising inflation? According to Bird Dog : no problem
Dollar sinking deeper and deeper? According to Bird Dog : no problem
Rising price of oil? According to Bird Dog : no problem
Yeh, it sure must be lies by the media and those damn lefties because everyone knows that U.S.A. is number 1 and doing mighty fine under the fine christian leadership by the surpreme genius George "w".

It sure is a good thing that we have an estate agent on this forum that has such clear grasp of the economy and the state it is in. One shudders to think that someone on here would post humbug based on faith, hearsay and disinformation.

What everyone else said, (#107893)
by dionysus

Also, that 1% of people who've gotten 75% of the income gains over the last 8 years?

They all live in blue states. Go ask the typical voter in a swing or red state what they think of the economy. Meanwhile, the knowledge workers in NYC, Boston, Chicago, LA, etc are indeed doing fine in this economy. At least there's that.

don't forget Silicon Valley! (#108092)
by Username

:D

I agree (#107891)
by Gabriel

The US economy remains very strong and resilient but I don't think people have negative views on the economy due to what politicians say. It's based on the real conditions of their lives.

--

This place is my vacation.

Any thoughts on GDP growth sans the stimulus checks? (#108053)
by catchy

McCain disagrees (#107889)
by Blue Neponset

Angry John thinks:

“Washington’s broken; John McCain knows it. We’re worse off than we were four years ago. Only McCain has taken on big tobacco, drug companies, fought corruption in both parties. He’ll reform Wall Street, battle Big Oil, make America prosper again.”

I guess McMaverick hasn't seen the latest per capita GDP numbers.

He is also flip flopping on his stance that we are "better off" now than we were before the Bush/Cheney years. LINK

--

But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie

A few misperceptions... (#107888)
by Wagster

The dollar fell yet our economy grew? The dollar falling might make some products more expensive for consumers, but it actually helps the economy by boosting the export sector.

Also, Wall Street and most economists were disappointed by the 1.9% 2Q growth rate. Given the huge stimulus that had been injected into the economy, the consensus estimate was around 2.3%.

Finally, we are seeing mortgage delinquency rates growing among non-subprime mortgage holders and property prices continuing to drop. Until real estate hits bottom, we won't know the liabilities of the financial sector, and until we know the liabilities of the financial sector, the credit system won't start flowing. And there are very many vicious cycle potentialities.

I'd expect a long slow-down and a slow recovery from it.

--

More Wagster!

Falling dollar (#107909)
by Bird Dog

I didn't jump onto the bluesy bandwagon about the falling dollar because there are positives: they help boost our exports and our own tourism industry, but I don't think they outweigh the negatives (mainly to do with inflation). Plus, we still have a pretty massive trade imbalance. I also didn't think the tax rebate checks would make much of a difference.

As for the real estate markets, I can't speak for other parts of the country, but I think we're pretty close to bottom in these parts. I'm actually going to start buying stock in some local banks this week.

--

"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

Please.... (#108030)
by JKC

before you buy any financials, please go read Mish or Calculated Risk or Bonddad.

I wouldn't buy a bank stock right now unless it was Shrub's retirement money I was using...

I would really, really recommend against (#107992)
by HankP

the problem with a lot of recent bank failures is that only the bank and the FDIC knew beforehand, and the equity went to 0 overnight. The credit problems aren't anywhere near being done.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Real estate peak-to-troughs are rarely as short as 2 years (#107954)
by Wagster

Typically, the down cycle is 4 - 8 years, with most of the fall at the beginning and the a slow plateauing out. Calculated Risk examines the last LA cycle vs the current one here.

--

More Wagster!

Going to be a while (#108038)
by wombaticus

Here in 20170 -- a reasonably prosperous and leafy DC burb -- we have 409 forclosures on the market. Further west, it's even grimmer. Pity the poor exurban guy who bought a house and SUV in 2005.

I presume all those listing are now real estate owned to the bank, which means they haven't fully realized their losses.

The thing is, a fair amount of people would like to put their houses on the market, but are waiting until all these foreclosures and short sales get sold. The overhang is probably tremendous.

Housing prices might go down more, or they could stay near the bottom here. (A few houses are listed for $100k or less!)But they probably won't go up any time soon.

--

They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
-- General John B. Sedgwick, 1864

Thank God for Per Capita GDP. (#107887)
by Jordan

It almost makes it sound like people's incomes are increasing when in fact just a tiny number of people's incomes are skyrocketing.

But the damn Democrats have people convinced that median incomes are, you know, flat. While prices, cost of healthcare, and fuel costs are skyrocketing.

Thanks for the great news.

--

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH

Down talking by Democrats? (#107877)
by athenas owl

"All that economic down-talking by Democrats appears to have paid off."

Anyone who has to go to the grocery store can tell you, they didn't need the Democrats or any else to point it out.

Wages haven't gone up, but the price for a loaf of bread certainly has.

Increases in GDP don't pay the bills Bird (#107875)
by Spartacvs

Frankly it's insulting to the majority who live in an economy that has seen good paying jobs disappear at alarming rates and real wage increases unable to keep pace with the ever rising expenses of the average family. I dearly hope the McCain campaign takes onboard your call for more such 'floats all yachts' boosterism lauding the Bush economic miracle.

Please, please, pretty please.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Great! (#107872)
by Harley

Any way you can convinced the McCain campaign to run on these rosy scenarios? Thanks in advance!

--

To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard

No way!!! (#107869)
by Blue Neponset

I was going to respond to your diary and then I noticed you used a quote from me as your sig line. I am flattered. Thank you.

Re: the diary

GDP is the wrong measuring stick to use if you want to understand why people are down on the economy. Median income, household spending, gas prices, debt load, housing liquidity, unemployment rates, etc., etc. are more relevant statistics if you want to understand why individuals are nervous about the economy.

Also, while things in Seattle may be going well, things in OH, MI & LA might not be going so well.

--

But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie

It's a good quote (#108037)
by catchy

tho I'm getting a little sick of the lack of attention I receive here. Before you ever wrote that, I said i hoped some 527 loosely affiliated w. the D party would accuse McCain of personally losing the Veitnam war for the US by selling out state secrets for a lousy pack of menthols.

ALSO, I was doing Harley's youtube posting style months ago.

AND I was the original crank re: diplomacy, not hankP.

FINALLY, I've been lamenting Solzhenitsyn's death for for almost 3 yrs. Vint. is way late to the party.

the lack of attention (#108040)
by Timmy the Wonder Dog

you did a really nice job over the last six months

--

"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob

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