The Making of a Hawk: Obama and Iran.


I am again indebted to my friend Iqbal Latif for the substance of this article. It is, for all practical purposes, a translation and rewrite of his thoughts and those of his brother Zachary. Though I added much to it, it is not to be considered my own.

The art of making enemies is perfected by radical regimes within the crescent of Islam. Iran’s intolerant mullahs seem hell-bent on confrontation with all and sundry. Where Libya’s Khadafy and to a lesser extent North Korea’s Kim have seen the benefits of cooperation and coexistence, however cynically they may have reached those conclusions, Islam’s radical regimes have chosen the route of angry isolation leading to self-destruction. The mullahs of Iran are engaged in a wholesale plundering of the legacy of a great nation. The mullahs and their sock puppet Ahmedinejad are transforming Barack Obama from a soft-glove politician into a much sterner man through their bizarre and fluctuating notions of national sovereignty. It is idiocy: Iran faces economic ruin.

On July 25th, Barack Obama said the use of military force should not be taken off the table: the Iranian "regime is a threat to all of us.” Where once Obama said he would meet Iran’s leaders without preconditions, now he says such meetings will be on his timeline, not Iran’s.

Obama’s foreign policy tour is a process of reinvention. His former pastor and Jesse Jackson must surely be writhing in rage to watch Obama work out a more muscular foreign policy, morphing from his softy far-left positions to a stance more akin to his opponent John McCain. Indeed, he must out-McCain McCain. Let history show a soft liberal cannot deliver peace. Israel’s Begin and India’s Vajpayee, both far-right politicians, delivered much-needed peace, however unpalatable, with Egypt and Pakistan respectively. .If Obama is to be elected, he must carry the swing states of the Midwest, where foreign policy may prove decisive.

Obama has three foreign policy planks: Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. Iran’s troublesome dealings with IAEA compel Obama to adopt a far more aggressive stance than his preferred route of pleasantries and diplomacy, as his statements in Paris and Jerusalem clearly demonstrate. Iran has needlessly provoked a celebrated dove in Obama, transforming him into a hawk. These are the acts of an immature and negligent regime oblivious to the day-to-day needs of the Iranian people.

A Statement of Principles

Any relevant social order must support three principles:

The rule of law,
The rule of reason
Freedom of religion

These conditions do not exist where theology infests government in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the present cores of the Islamic world.

Though both KSA and Iran have indirectly aided and abetted the terrorism which now violently shakes the branches of humanity’s tree, neither seems to be directly involved. Iran is far too sophisticated to engage in suicide bombing: this is mostly a Sunni / Salafi vice. Shi’a Islam has a long tradition of self-immolation and self-flagellation, and there were suicide charges in the war against Saddam Hussein, but the notion of suicide bombing is an alien concept in Iran. Though Shiites venerate martyrs, they do not venerate murderers.

An Outline of the Farsi Thought Process

Cyrus the Great once said he would not rule over a people who did not want his rule. He compelled no man to change his religion. Iran’s current policy of human rights abuses is heartbreaking: it is not the Farsi way of doing things.

Iran is the cradle of civilization and law. From the time of the Medes and Persians, law has governed disparate societies. Iran gave rise to the three principles enumerated above. Zarathustra, the prophet of the Zoroastrian faith wrote 21 holy books, the Nask. Seven of these were works of law, seven were works of science and seven were works of religion. Compare and contrast this long tradition with Iran in present times: one sees a scandalous and disgusting descent into to the lowest rung of civilization, where an intolerant regime persecutes its own citizens.

The very notion of universally applicable law itself arises in Iran. We in the West generally consider Hammurabi to be the first lawgiver, but the tradition is far older, and begins in what would become Persia. Before Islam, Iran was the home of the Zoroastrian faith, still practiced secretly in that benighted land. Their faith was in their laws, which governed every aspect of their society from the behavior of soldiers to soil conservation. It is deeply shocking to see an ancient and honorable culture trampled down over the last three decades. Where once no man was coerced, where the concept of human rights was born, where Live and Let Live was not only the law of the land but the tenet of a faith now terror campaigns exact terrible damage to this sacred trust, this basis of all civilized societies. A clerical tyranny has descended upon Iran.

The world turns a blind eye to the human rights abuses within Iran, flippantly dismissing it as “political Islam”, making special exception for Islam’s tyrannies. The social contract evolved over millennia, the Darwinian survival of the fittest idea, respect for life, the universality of our need to peacefully co-exist, the need for justice, all these are tossed aside by “political Islam” which now attempts to forge a new social contract, where arrogant mullahs like Khomeini and Mullah Omar shall give us a new and terrible interpretation, a definition of the world governed by medieval diktat and fossilized law, summary death sentences without trials, the murder of innocents, plunging a dagger into the very heart of the social contract where first that contract was enacted.

The heart of every terrorist has become a horrific perversion of a Temple of Justice. In this death cult, the high priests are clothed in the Harness of Ayyash the Bomb Maker, bearing five kilos of dynamite and steel bolts, dealing out swift and terrible revenge to any who dare to question their dark hegemony. Though they preach a return to an ancient mode of life, their new Islamic Social Contract is a new and horrible thing in human history. To a man who believes suicide and the deaths of innocents will bring justice to the world, human life is consequentially of no value.

This ‘political Islam’ is fundamentally a suicide cult. Islam firmly condemns suicide: these jihaadi do not revenge the weak upon their tormentors. The jihaadi are summary and inhuman recapitulations of the inquisitors of old, justifying monstrous crimes against innocent persons in the cause of an anarchic ideal not shared by the rest of humanity. Of cultural diversity, of the richness of tradition, of humankind’s essential decency they are blankly ignorant. Human society cannot tolerate such as these. The West, indeed the whole world must view ‘political Islam’ as a threat to every society individually and humanity collectively. Humankind has seen such movements before and has overcome in the face of terrible adversity. Political Islam has sown the seeds of its own demise: we must now stamp out this movement before it destroys us all in its own suicide.

Iran’s Choices

Iran’s choices are fairly obvious and equally limited: the mullahs understand confrontation will end in catastrophe. Iran’s mullah-ocracy first faced Jimmy Carter, then Ronald Reagan. Carter was publically soft, but he patiently out-waited out the hostage crisis: Carter’s quiet threat to lock down Iran from the air and the sea was written out by hand and delivered to Iran: the hostages were not tried as Iran had promised to do. Reagan was publically hard-line against Iran, but he treacherously sold arms to them, negotiating for hostages, which Carter had not done. Clinton and the Bushes condemned Iran, but contained and eventually eliminated Iran’s greatest threat, Saddam Hussein, freeing Iran to meddle in Iraq as it does today. Iran is therefore of two minds about the USA. Which is America’s true face, confrontation or appeasement, or perhaps both?

Iraq’s Maliki viciously slapped Iran’s meddling hand in Basra and New Baghdad. The Sunnis and Kurds snickered behind their hands and their opinions of Maliki shot up enormously: here at last was a Shiite capable of defending Iraqi interests from the predations of Iran. Iran’s proxy Moktada Sadr is on his last legs politically. That tubby little imam sits stunned in the safety of Iran as his Mehdi Army is shot to pieces and Iran’s Special Guards are rounded up. Huge and expensive arms caches, gifts from Iran to the various troublemakers within Iraq are now routinely detected and put into Iraqi Army inventories. If the USA has blundered in Iraq, Iran blunders are catastrophic. Maliki’s mukhabarat has obviously penetrated Iran’s operations. The Americans, to their lasting credit, are only interested in stabilizing, not dominating Iraq. Though it is not widely understood, Iraqi intelligence has a good working relationship with the Americans: surely Iraqi agents are our best source of operational intelligence about Iran.

Ahmedi-nejad plays a dangerous game. After 9/11, every other surviving Islamic regime backed down. Musharraf of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan might have played the confrontation game as did his patsy regime in Afghanistan and the odious regime of Saddam Hussein. The Americans countered that game with Shock and Awe: they are the ruthless and dispassionate masters of the Confrontation Game, a game they play with precision and cruel insight. Iran backed down in the wake of 9/11: there were public demonstrations of mourning and solidarity against Al Qaeda. Perhaps Ahmedi-nejad has forgotten the limits of American patience: Pakistan has not forgotten. India would have gleefully capitalized on any such foolish confrontation: Pakistan would have quickly been reduced to a balkanized set of Indian vassal provinces, its nuclear program dismantled and India would have rid itself of a thorn in its side.

In an Islamic country, cooperation with the West is a damned if you do – damned if you don’t proposition. Ahmedi-nejad’s fire-breathing idiocy, the continual chanting of Death to America at every possible occasion will lead to Shock and Awe eventually, and everyone knows it. The lasting lesson of our War on Terror is this: America can be goaded to war, even against its own better judgment and best interests. Though America may not achieve its desired outcome, no political regime survives Shock and Awe.

Ahmedi-nejad is merely a hired flute player: he plays tunes for the clerics. While he plays, Iran becomes ever more backward, more disconnected from technology and finance. He lacks mandate and therefore cannot make unpopular decisions such as Musharraf made after 9/11. The Americans have an unfortunate model for the aftermath of Shock and Awe: a subsequent invasion of contractors to rebuild bombed infrastructure. Iran would be best served to keep its money in its own pockets, serve the needs of its own public and thereby quell public uprisings.

Naught of him hath changed, but hath suffered a sea change

In its arrogance and stupidity, Iran has seemingly alienated Barack Obama. Now it’s Big Carrots but mostly Big Sticks on offer, a radical shift in his rhetoric. If confronted, convinced Big Carrots aren’t working, Obama will not be afraid to use that Big Stick and the aforementioned contractors will follow in the wake of that Big Stick as surely as night follows day.

In its turpitude, its hegemonic notions of supremacy, its clumsy and arrogant rhetoric of confrontation, Iran’s leaders have closed the doors to cooperation and opened the door to self-obliteration. Iran is horribly governed by mullahs intent upon its destruction. It is painful to recollect the ancient greatness of Iran, its history and culture. Will the Iranian Diaspora around the world rise to state “enough is enough”? Our noble nation does not deserve to be bombed for the sake of uranium enrichment, a course of action which brings us no safety and calls down destruction upon us all.

Iran is the cradle of civilization itself. We have been here for five thousand years. We have given poetry and culture and history to the nomads of the world. Iran’s innate cultural supremacy gave rise to lawgiving itself. Forged of many cultures, we are deeply humanistic, we have given precious gifts to the world, our poets and writers, Rumi, Hafiz Saadi, Abdul Baha, If we entertain notions of supremacy, it is because we dream of a world of oneness, a world of love. We give this dream to you as well.

--

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I don't believe that Obama (#105739)
by Kierkegaard

has been transformed into a hawk. Nor do I believe that the coalition upon which his future political life depends would ever allow him to become one, barring some future Darfur-like crusade. I can't see him ever dealing with Iran any differently than Carter did, though hopefully less duplicitously than Reagan.

As for Iran, I admire the courage of your friends, though I'm not sure I agree with all of their conclusions. Some seem to me to be based on wishful thinking, others on what I call 'wistful' thinking. It's been 3,000 years or so since Iran was even 'a', much less 'the' cradle of civilization; these are the sorts of culturally nostalgic assertions one also hears from Iraqis and Egyptians. After Tamerlane (a recommended read, incidentally), the Persian Empire sank very gradually into torpor and irrelevance, enjoying a renaissance in the courts of the Moghuls but, by-passed by European colonization of Asia and blocked to the west by the Sunnite Turks, dwindled into insignificance as a world power by this century. Its recent war with Iraq, fought to a standstill by the re-enacting of WW I, profoundly revealed the antiquated military delusions of both nations, and its recent oil-fuelled economic revival has produced the same sort of corrupt gangster-kleptocracy that the US found in place in Iraq.

I personally don't think we will ever invade Iran; our window of opportunity has passed. I think a President McCain might bomb Iran, as he has famously threatened in song, but I highly doubt a President Obama would do even that under any circumstances. And I'm not sure either would allow the Israelis to.

We can't rule out what Obama might do, not yet. (#105761)
by BlaiseP

Let us hope his good sense wins out. Frankly, I can't think why he'd invade Iran, but he might turn a blind eye to the Israelis doing it, in which case we'll be dragged in, willy-nilly.

As for Iqbal and Zachary Latif, they can be excused a little patriotism, if only as an antidote to the quotidian saber-rattling from the Usual Suspects about Iran. Iran's people must not be conflated with Iran's current government. We indulge in a bit of history-burnishing ourselves, especially in the matter of our Founding Fathers, who weren't quite the Pillars of Moral Rectitude we would like to believe. These are the bozos who gave us the Electoral College and the Vice Presidency. They sorta forgot about poor people and Africans when it came to that independence business. If Iqbal invokes the name of Cyrus, the Bible records him as a tolerant man who practiced freedom of religion, allowed the Jews to return to their land and even funded the rebuilding of their Temple. An altogether good king.

Yes indeed (#105768)
by Kierkegaard

Would that he were in power now. But as I say, that's a high point 3 millenia ago. However, you're quite right to laud the Latifs' patriotism. Even perhaps their attachment to certain symbols, songs, even flags of their native land? ;)

Heh. They're good guys, those two. (#105771)
by BlaiseP

And it would be sad if someone didn't say a few kind words for the Persians, who really are among the most cosmopolitan of the world's people. Any culture that can give rise to a Rumi has a loving heart at its core.

These spiritual window-shoppers,
who idly ask, 'How much is that?' Oh, I'm just looking.
They handle a hundred items and put them down,
shadows with no capital.

What is spent is love and two eyes wet with weeping.
But these walk into a shop,
and their whole lives pass suddenly in that moment,
in that shop.

Where did you go? "Nowhere."
What did you have to eat? "Nothing much."

Even if you don't know what you want,
buy _something,_ to be part of the exchanging flow.

Start a huge, foolish project,
like Noah.

It makes absolutely no difference
what people think of you.

BP, Iran has not been a military threat to any (#106010)
by mmghosh

country in the region. I am not sure why it needs to be demonised for anything more than pursuing a path of an obscurantist theocracy.

Within its borders, Iran is a horror story. (#106016)
by BlaiseP

Human rights abuses within Iran are hugely destabilizing. Iran's on the edge of the abyss, huge rifts are developing in the society. If the Islamic regime shows signs of failure, and I believe it is, the collapse will be horrific.

Stop pretending Iran isn't a problem. It's a problem in Lebanon, it's a problem in Iraq, it's a problem in Gaza. It's threatening Israel, it's threatening the USA. They don't act on those threats, but they still make those threats.

Iran is run by some seriously paranoid individuals of an Obscurantist Theological bent, file under Apocalyptic, right next to Branch Davidian.

True. But the operative clause is "within its borders". (#106021)
by mmghosh

As for being a problem in other countries - hmm.

Plenty of countries interfere in the businesses of other countries. I seem to recall a certain Mossadegh. Mr Carter, that apostle of peace and a Nobel Prize winner, announced the virtual unilateral economic annexation of all the countries in the Persian Gulf in his SOTU address in the Presidency in 1980.

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.

Conservapedia quotes approvingly

any outside force refers to a force outside collective security agreements or outside the region.
vital interests President Clinton's Defense Secretary William Perry said remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations: "Roosevelt was the first U.S. president to declare that the United States has vital interests in the region."
any means necessary means not restricted to conventional warfare, i.e. the United States was prepared to use nuclear warfare if necessary to safeguard its vital interests in the Persian Gulf.

"Yes, but" means No, heh. (#106028)
by BlaiseP

I recall Mossadegh, too. I recall the Shah far better. I recall OPEC was the Shah's idea. So much for installing a Compliant Patsy.

I, and the Latif brothers, believe Iran's clerical gangsters aren't directly involved in terror. They're too smart for that. They deal through proxies. Everyone does.

Do you really want the USA to leave the region? Pull out of the Gulf? Maybe you want the Gulf to turn into a pirate haven, like the coast of Somalia. Why doesn't India put a few ships off the coast of Africa? It's really easy, when you're a net arms importer, like India, (which has a growing problem with illegal arms just now) to blame the USA for protecting its oil supply. Why can't India get out of Jammu and Kashmir? Who asked India to defend that proposition?

The USA will not either leave or give up the Gulf (#106037)
by mmghosh

based on my opinion, so my opinion counts for little. As for the consequences of a pullout, well, the Gulf region has been outside the sphere of US influence for some millennia as you yourself point out. No doubt they will be able to survive some more.

As for Kashmir, it has been an integral part of the Indian subcontinent for millennia. I do not think the situation is comparable to the US involvement in the Gulf which is purely economic and political.

Why is the Indian Army still there, crapping on the glaciers? (#106042)
by BlaiseP

You should see the mounds of garbage they've stacked up in Kashmir. Potato-potahto, the Kashmiris are the ones without a say in the issue. Wny can't India come to terms with this ongoing problem? Is is all blame-Pakistan ? The Armed Forces Special Powers Act of 1958 is India's dirty little secret, they treat the Kashmiris as if they were the enemy, but they still want to control the land.

Look, these are complex issues. I'm just growing weary of these smug little assertions about American hegemony. We got sucked into the mess, I don't like it, but the way out is the way through.

Heh again. I'm not sure why crapping on glaciers (#106055)
by mmghosh

is a major offence. Presumably people who wish to live there must crap somewhere.

As for Kashmir, yes, its a long and complex history, like our many millennia-long long and complex histories. Like I said before, these are mostly internecine problems which really should not interest any of the Great Powers.

The Armed Forces Special Powers Act is really great. (#106058)
by BlaiseP

Let's check it out.

Basically, folks, the Indian Government has summary power to shoot to kill, arrest without warrant, destroy property, pretty much do anything it wants, as long as the military declares it to be a "disturbed area"

So let's not kid ourselves here. It's pot calling the kettle black. India has its own problems with terrorism, a lot closer to home and it seems to have pretty much the same policies as the Americans did in Iraq. Which the Americans don't have any more, may I add. They operate only where the Iraqis let them. Iraq isn't under martial law.

So for all practical purposes, India treats the Kashmiris as bad or often worse than the Americans treat the Iraqis. At least the Americans recognize the problem. Maybe the Indian Army could take a lesson from Mr. Obama, and realize it's their own army aggravating the situation.

You don't have to go to Kashmir to know that the Indian (#106063)
by mmghosh

Government, both Central and State arrests without warrants, destroys property etc pretty much wherever it wishes to do so in the country.

As do many other Governments all over the world.

The point of course, that (1) it is an internal matter within the country which can really, according to the terms of international law, legitimately only be sorted out by the people of the country themselves and (2) in terms of a political process, the country is a representative democracy where all such matter are discussed and solutions arrived at, painfully, as in other nations.

I hold no particular brief for our Government, believing them, from personal experience, to be capable of several forms of nastiness including many not necessarily exposed to the rest of world. However, just as the US can be legitimately proud of its role in the reconstruction of postwar Germany, Japan and South Korea, leading to their independence and progress, the one act of military aggression from this country which can be said to have been legitimate is the matter of the war in Bangladesh in 1971. That said the Indian state is not immune to making illegitimate forays into surrounding nations - into Sikkim in the 1970s and in Sri Lanka in 1980s. That was a disease of 60s and 70s politicians here and has hopefully now died a death.

My point, is however, about the subject matter in your post which the legitimization of an invasion into Iran by an external power on grounds that do not, on the face of it, appear to be consistent. I also do realise that an invasion is becoming, more or less, inevitable, and that the US will in all probability overwhelm the Iranian forces.

You can't have it both ways, "Internal matter" means nothing (#106074)
by BlaiseP

These are very serious allegations of human rights violations.

Look, I don't think, and I know the Latifs don't think that we have any right to invade Iran. Such an invasion will make matters far, far worse.

But we also say the USA can be goaded to war, against its own best interests. That's now a proven fact. Afghanistan, ecch... I have my own reservations about a war there, too. If I was in a position to advise the US government, here's what I'd say.

The problems in Iran are congruent with the problems in Afghanistan. An ignorant bunch of clerics are acting like gangsters, and the ordinary people hate them. We can take the side of the ordinary people. In Afghanistan, we should be pushing for limited autonomy for the Pashtuns. Pakistan can't or won't govern them, so let's push for some sort of arrangement such as the Kurds have worked out with Turkey: if the PKK crosses the border and kills Turkish troops, you give us a call, tell us you're coming and we won't raise a stink about it. Taliban gives us trouble, same story with Pakistan. The Pakistanis don't run your show, Pashtuns, now either you play cricket with us on this, or we shove the cricket bat up your ass, but that's your decision to make. We don't care. You understand revenge and don't want us interfering, well, don't annoy us, these Taliban are your guests, and we pushed them out of Kabul. Don't make us to the same in the Hindu Kush, you will not like it. And as for those wretched Pakistani troops trying to keep us out, you kill them too, so don't give us any guff.

Fact is, I'd send a bunch of Kurds over to Afghanistan, to talk to the Pashtuns. Send in some translators, get the Americans out of the tent, and let them drink chai all day every day until the Kurds have taught the Pashtuns how to deal with things, convince them the Americans have no interest in anything but genuine Pashtun autonomy, as far as these things can be pushed.

I am at a loss to understand what interest Americans have (#106078)
by mmghosh

or can have in Afghanistan, to take your last point first. Do a deal with the Talib - at some point this will have to be done, and pay a shedload of cash to someone to identfy/arrest OBL.

The Middle East itself is much more complex, as are US interests born of long interactions with the players. Like I said before, my sense is that the US should get out of Afghanistan. There really is nothing there to show for it.

Don't condescend, Manish, you're a better man than that. (#106085)
by BlaiseP

There's no dealing with the Taliban. They oppress the Pashtun people as well.

There's an old Arabic proverb about the turkey. A sheikh has a turkey, someone steals it. "Get the guy who stole that turkey" says the sheikh. Few days go by, someone steals his horse. "Get the guy who stole that turkey" says the sheikh. Then someone rapes his daughter. "Get the guy who stole that turkey" says the sheikh.

"What's the deal about the turkey?" his warriors demand to know.

"Until you get the guy who stole my turkey, this shit will continue."

Now we can't forget what the Taliban did, and it must be revenged. We didn't deal with them when they were stealing the turkey, now we've lost the horse and the honor of our daughter, so to speak. I don't care what those nasty little Pakistanis have to say about it, the guy who stole our turkey is wiping his butt every day in their country. And while he's there, don't give us any guff about your precious sovereignty. It doesn't matter. We go where the enemy is, anywhere, any time of day or night, and we don't care if you like it or not. Now either Pakistan gets the guy who stole our turkey or we will. End of story.

Um (#106080)
by HankP

it's because that's where the worst attack on US soil in almost 200 years was planned and directed? Unless everything we've been told about al-Queda is false (which is something I've considered) that is a legitimate interest.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

And may I add, it's not just in Jammu and Kashmir (#106060)
by BlaiseP

It's been amended to include the northeastern parts of India. So essentially, if you don't want to be part of India, your state is put under martial law and the armed forces who will occupy your state aren't even accountable to a judge for their actions. The Indian Army is judge, jury and quite literally executioner.

Damn, I don't remember the US doing that in Iraq. We prosecuted our soldiers for that sort of shit, raping, murder, theft, corruption, maltreating prisoners. Not saying it doesn't happen, but our military deals with it. Our Army operates under ROEs, rules of engagement. Iraq's now got a legitimate government. So does Afghanistan. We pay for what we tear up. We invade somewhere, first thing we do is have a big old jirgeh, get all the clan leaders together, often for the first time in many years, to sort things out for themselves. We haven't always respected the people whose lands we invade, but we don't have summary justice, either, and a million Afghans ran back into Afghanistan when we overthrew the Taliban.

Some bad guys we are, when the refugees run toward us instead of away from us.

Not just the Army. You forget the paramilitary agencies (#106069)
by mmghosh

and the police which are as brutal to the people of the country that they purport to serve as any other Gestapo.

However! Right or wrong, it is still the internal matter of a country - one that is under the jurisdiction of its legitimately constituted government. The involvement of the US in Iran at the time of Mossadegh had been exactly the reverse of that - a staged removal of a democratically elected head of state. Now, I hope that I am aware as much as anyone here of Cold War exigencies and reasons of state for which decisions were made, and the necessity for the US to secure its essential energy resources. But lets call a spade a spade and not talk about the moralities of invasions to protect "the people" from "tyrants".

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