Campaign/US Market Watch Open thread.....
500 down on Monday... What will today bring?
AIG in the hot seat being downgraded.
WAMU on deck one begins to wonder are these as Bernard said TBTF?
Fed looking at a possibility of a large rate cut...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag_0LsxCHN3g&refer=home
Palin might have jumped the shark when you lose D Brooks... (Elitist wing of the GOP)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16brooks.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Other than that all things random so we do not have ten simple needless diaries....
Everyone have a good day and no window jumping markets go up and down.. Of course I have no exposure wish I had a pile of cash might be some cheap stock soon...
Scary science study today with a possible way to lower some health problems if follow ups true...
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/36481/title/Study_implicates_bisphenol_A_in_heart_disease%2C_diabetes
--
Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
- Davinci's blog
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Heard about this on Colbert Report tonight. If anyone wants to help save people from malaria: http://www.nothingbutnets.net/
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)3/08 WSJ interview: "as part of Social Security reform, I believe that private savings accounts are a part of it - along the lines of what President Bush proposed."
He's also flip-flopped or whatever:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyBwMy27Aoc
2 angles from which to hit McCain. Time to get some spots up + running.
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)Heh.
It's not hard, I guess. When your opponent's *idea* is a punch line in and of itself.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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)"We know how we got into this mess: what we need is leadership to get us out"
Did he say any more on the matter after this? It's a great soundbite of course: and yes, Sen. McCain's suggestion for a "9/11 Commission" is (at best) trite and feeble - but I would feel a LOT better about Sen. Obama's riposte if he had, perhaps, made some concrete suggestions as to what, if anything, should be done about the current financial "crisis". I.e.; exhibited "leadership"
It doesn't have to be TOO wonkish (nor should it) - but ISTM that in this election, busting your opponent's chops over their more inane comments isn't going to be enough, alone, to win it: following up the jabs up with a nice concise tagline to drive home your plan/policy/proposal just may...
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| parent )Palin might have jumped the shark when you lose D Brooks
I don't see why you would imply that David Brooks would be one of the last to admit that Palin is unqualified. As conservative columnists go -- or for that matter, as columnists of either right or left go -- he is perhaps the least knee-jerk partisan and is definitely one of the most sensible, thoughtful, and fair.
Better examples would have been Krauthammer and Will, who tend to be more partisan (particularly the former), but both of whom also told it straight rather than drinking and serving the partisan GOP Kool-Aid on Palin.
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)Chicago Tribune
a populist member of the GOP is going to suffer through unfavorable elit observations and eventually they, the elite, will go after her friends.
Lippmann wrote.
despite all of the above, the man from Independence, Mo., is generally viewed as one of the country's better presidents.
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )He's been one of the loudest drum-bangers on the "elitism" issue. What struck me the hardest about that column was that he admits he would be a Palin fan if he hadn't lived through the last eight years. Looks like "heckuva job, Brownie" had more of an impact on conservatives than I had supposed, at least insofar as they recognize the bad optics of it.
Not, of course, that he or any other Republican will abandon the "elitist" line on Obama, because it's the only politically correct angle that's working for them.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Not, of course, that he or any other Republican will abandon the "elitist" line on Obama
Are you saying that David Brooks is elitist, that he's been calling Obama elitist (or both)? And if the latter (calling Obama an elitist), have a link?
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| parent )that isn't a populist Republican, or at least that's been his line for the last few years.
I've heard him on NPR a few times talking about Obama needing to shake the "elitist" label, but I'm too lazy to search back through his columns.
Brooks' shtick is a pretense of objectivity, so it's quite possible that he has never directly called Obama an elitist anyway. Just "raised the question". You know how it goes.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Excuse me, but I have to think that you can distinguish between his saying that Obama needs to shake an elitist image vs. his saying that Obama is an elitist (i.e., in his own opinion). Give me a break.
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| parent )Not really. Like I said, pretense of objectivity; it's the oldest and thinnest pundit shtick in the book. Lately it goes by its new name of "concern trolling".
Everybody knows that Raoul Duke was the only objective observer who ever lived. Other journalists talked about objectivity; he grabbed it by the f***ing throat.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )You're either not thinking or pretending you're not thinking. Again, give me a break. Look, if I were running for Miss Congeniality here on Forvm, I would say that I've got to shake the label (the perception of me) of "unbearably arrogant pr*ck". Is that the same as my saying that I think I am an unbearably arrogant pr*ck? (hint: answer is "No, it's not the same.")
Please don't waste my time by not listening, not thinking, or pretending not to be doing either or both in some lame effort to avoid admitting a mistake.
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| parent )it is an art of propagating. Another way is some people say without sourcing the meme. The foreign policy/Military/Inteligence is referred to as plausible deniability. I could be wrong but that is the issue he was pointing out. Now you might disagree with it but absurd it is not of course IMHO.
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )Get a national audience and say the following:
"McCain adopting a daughter really opens him up to suspicion of being a child molester. If he wants to appeal to more people he's going to have to shake the image of being a pervert"
Strictly speaking, you're not accusing him of anything, but the slime is still recieved. It's just a variant on the standard politician's trick of splitting the difference between lying and perjury.
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| parent )I'm aware of such a tactic, but it's beyond a stretch to automatically equate saying that Obama needs to shake the elitist perception some have of him with saying that Obama is an elitist.
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| parent )It's less of a stretch than my next beer, but I think I find more truth in politicians' words than pundits. Does that make me hyper-cynical, or have I rounded the circle back to pollyannaish?
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| parent )Seriously.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Geez. I guess admitting a mistake is a Forvm posting rules violation.
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| parent )Continuing this general approach to interacting with other Forvm commenters is going to lead to a suspension. I've seen you interact politely here, so I know you're capable of it. Please do so.
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| parent )...where Mr. Brooks has done anything against posting rules.
Could you point out the offending comment? I just don't see a problem, but maybe I missed it.
--Of course not!
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| parent )Just curious: Are you planning to run for re-election as moderator next time? I'm only asking to get a sense of the degree to which favoring the large majority partisan liberal clique here may -- again, MAY -- be influencing your moderating decisions. I think it's a legitimate question, and pertains to your comment (your warning to me).
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| parent )exposes people to comments like this one. Which would you pick if you were MSE?
If you think someone is committing a PR violation, say so in a reply and one of us will try to pick it up and if it's seen, will rule on it. The squeaky wheel gets the oiled hammer etc.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Still haven't heard back from your about the doughnuts. And if you like doughnuts. Please advise.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )Please don't pass this on, but I've been working on work-related work the past several days. And now I'm polishing up an Obama diary, so brace yourself, Kate, as they say in the Emerald Aisle.
EDIT: Ixnay on the ibe-brays. Remember to wrap it/them in a used, grease-stained donut bag (ask the nearest peace officer for one from his dashboard) and no donuts with consecutive serial numbers. Alternative if you don't "do" earth-friendly packaging: something that will fit neatly in the freezer.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Will it be a David Brooksian reappraisal of the McCain campaign, as seen thru the eyes of Senator Obama? That would be cool.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )Alternate: The Tao of BO; Acorns Don't Fall Far From The Tree.
In the mountains, in the cities, even out at Pismo Beach
--You're never out of reach
Of the bears.
Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )I'd wait til Monday before publishing.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )Quick, who am I mimicking, you, BN or who's behind Door No.3?
Pay no attention to daily polling, grasshoppah; it is just simpletonic window-dressing for naifs and rustic mooncalves like you. You must use The Force of 538 and go to sophisticated sites that tally up state-by-state projections, Electoral College votes, constituential syzygies and other long-term trends, Luke. Only then can you talk to Jedi Pollster sages like me, blah blah.
what does uberanalyst Nate Silver say the trend is, Harley?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Trends, short term and long, are worth watching. Right now McCain's bounce is about over, Palin's negatives are moving upward, and while he's retaining more of the bounce in the state polls -- the more important polls, of course -- it'll be worth watching where this all heads given the bad week plus he's had. And the 'fundamentals' stupidity, augmented by the 'let's put on a commission' stupidity, probably won't help.
As for electoral college votes, the 3bluedudes, who aggregate this stuff, have 55 sites favoring Obama, 17 favoring McCain, a +4 move for the Senior Senator.
Silver -- and yes, I know the question was nothing more than asshattery, but I'll answer it anyway -- spent his time on Palin's rising negatives. A short term trend, heh, that bears watching. (Silver's theory is that Palin's convention speech was overrated and McCain's underrated -- and that he deserves more credit for the bounce than he is generally given.)
So there you have it. I just wasted valuable time responding to vapid snark. My bad. But I loves the polls.
Bonus Fact: Daily polling is often a rolling number taking three days into account. See? You learned something today!
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )that sees you again in fully condescending faux-guru lecture mode. Too bad you are wrong on every point.
Why am I surprised that you select the numbers which support your hopes and ignore those that dash them? Do I really have to track down and rub your nose in your comments from a few weeks ago about the meaninglessness of short-term trends, and the need to look at the numbers from individual states and translate them into EC votes? Remember lecturing me about how essential 538 is to that process?
Could your change of heart and switch to a new crystal ball site have anything to do with the fact that Obama has lost almost fifty electoral votes in the past two weeks according to 538?
Now you've found an entirely new, openly pro-Obama site containing statements like this:
Yet even that site shows a steady movement of individual states to the McCain camp. And RCP's generic Congressional poll is tarting to raise the prospect of some significant reductions in Dem Senate and House majorities in November.
And speaking of asshattery, how do you like these trends from your own link:
So keep trying to cherry-pick, but do read the fine print before posting a link that contradicts your theme. And by all means keep trying to teach me how these things work. %/>
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )How about "Obama, Can This Really Be the End?"
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| parent )- Login or register to post comments
| parent )LOL !!!! Oh man, that literally made my eyes water I laughed so hard. I'm gonna send that to everyone I know and some people I don't.
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| parent )Glad you finally dropped the shovel, B&BR.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )In college I used to play drums in my dorm room, with the window open to try to impress anyone -- chicks, to be precise -- who might at some point connect the drum playing to me. I played a lot of different stuff (Hendrix often -- favorite tune to play to was "Fire") and jammed a few times with others. For a week or two during my freshman year I played that Dylan tune quite a bit (nothing challenging, but just fun and relaxing). One time upon meeting some cute girl in the area, I must have mentioned that I play drums because I remember her saying with a big smile "Oh, you're the guy who plays drums to Dylan!" I then proceeded to not even get close to scoring with her. Guess it would have made a much better story otherwise. Oh well.
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| parent ). . .to admire the rather well-styled goatee that he is suddenly sporting, shrugs, and goes off to do other things*
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| parent )yeah, just what I thought. Go back ta' Russia, ya' grass-smokin', no-showerin' commie.
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| parent )(arches eyebrow)
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Meeting at midnight. We'll bring the usual bag of doughnuts. With the tasty cash filling.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )He's coming with me to the Nader rally.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )Heh.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )I wager, would rather walk the plank than grovel for votes from the Port Side. And not because he'd have to cross the deck to make the plea.
You probably should start crafting your retraction.
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| parent )power of the moles and spies sent out by the VLWC. Scott AKA the moonbat Eiland.... He wears his code pink leftist decoder ring while walking around his home in his VLWC underpants.....
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )nt
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )Hey, the warning seemed to me inconsistent with the lack of warning to others whose comments have been as bad or worse, in other words, seemed to me to reflect a double standard. I therefore wanted to try to have a better idea of potential motive of this possible double standard, as one factor to consider in assessing/re-assessing the probability that my sense is correct that a double standard had been applied. My question was not diplomatic, but I think it's a fair question for me to ask in response to a warning that I deem unfair, and I don't consider it anything for anyone to (legitimately) whine about. It's not like I accused him of taking a bribe or something; just, for lack of a better word, a political motive that could be a source of either subconcious bias or deliberate favoratism, if either exists.
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| parent )Of moderators, that is. And if you think someone is favoring one constituency over another, you can say so when the extensive campaigning for coveted patronage seats begins. (My campaign slogan was "it takes a pig to root out a truffle", JFTR.) You can also say so now, but who remembers these things?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )I've explained what my purpose was in asking the question: To assess/re-assess the likelihood that my perception was accurate by trying to get a sense of possible motive for a possible double-standard. I wasn't trying to hurt his chances for re-election -- heck, if I wanted to do that, the last thing I'd do is say that I think his warning to me (and not to some others) reflected a probable favoring of the liberals here on his part. To be on the receiving end of such a comment is surely a big vote-getter for anyone running for moderator on Forvm.
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| parent )jftr, been there don't that on both sides of the equation, no peace, no justice, Bird Dog sucks et al.
drill long, drill deep but always with a smile.
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )drill long, drill deep but always with a smile.
What's that, advice from Dr. Ruth?
(the kids here may not get that joke. ya' had to be there in the 1980s)
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| parent )________ was a community organizer, FDR was a guv, I'll let you fill in the blank.
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )______ was a decorated veteran.
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| parent )To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )ny
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )What answer to you expect to your question? "Yes, I plan to run for reelection; I have noted the demographic shift towards leftward leaners here and therefore wish to ingratiate myself with them via bias that's subtle to the point of invisibility"? Really, the question is beneath notice. You can ask it, but expecting a reply is, well, like Harley thinking the election tide has decisively turned in Obama's favor because David Brooks doesn't like McCain anymore, or that Bar-bra Streisand will salvage another election for the Dems.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )To answer your question, despite the apparently rhetorical nature intended:
One possible answer could have been: "Actually, I'm pretty sure I won't run next time". That would inform my assessment somewhat.
Another could have been: "I probably will run again [but denial of bias or implication thereof]". That would inform my assessment somewhat.
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| parent )Remember : Socratic method.
He wants MSE to think about HIS answer. Devious.
BTW, a message to MSE : You've been made. Return to the mother ship immediately for reprogramming. We thank you for your tireless service.
--Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President. - Bruce Springsteen
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| parent )To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )You know better.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )nt
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )nt
--"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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| parent )... with the first four words of your slogan.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Let me guess: your favorite canape is surrender cheese.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent ).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )that we officially bronze this comment and keep it in a lovely display case for all to savor and enjoy.
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| parent )But we should wait until MSE regains consciousness.
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )Knowing you, you know exactly what it would have been, and I make no reference whatsoever to chronic vegetative state. I don't care what kind of diet people maintain, or what star they hail from.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )This is an awesome testament, either to MSE's even-handedness or to something else.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )You have to work work work for what you want, MScott!!
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| parent )But Brooks has been a fairly reliable voice, however thoughtful, for the GOP in the last month or two. I'm not a fan. But he had at least one brilliant line today, about Palin and the 'people.'
That's not bad. Not bad at all.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )but I might quibble about the order of events there. The right embraced populist measures like ballot referenda before the left did. Sure, the left has always liked to yell about "power to the people", but it's divorced from any actual philosophy of government; most of them have no idea what they even mean by it.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )But 'power to the people' probably predated Howard Jarvis and Prop 13 (1978). And while they (the Left) may have had no idea what they meant by it, I'd suggest, with little doubt, that the folks who shout the same thing as a way of supporting Palin now have no clearer or better idea.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )That's what I said.
I disagree. I think the populists on the right have quite a clear (if erroneous) philosophy of government. It boils down to the idea that holding public office is a corrupting influence, and that it is always a good idea to tie the hands of elected and appointed officials when possible. Concrete applications of this theory include term limits, mandatory minimum sentences, tax caps/supermajority requirements, and a slew of other conservative causes célèbres, usually imposed by means of ballot measures.
Liberal populism is typically class-oriented, and boils down to a vague sense that those who are currently poor or disenfranchised could do a better and fairer job of governing than those who are currently rich and influential.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )...was coined by the Black Panther Party around 1968. John Lennon took the slogan and made a song out of it 3 years later.
--Me: We! -- Ali
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| parent )"All power to the people" was used at least as early as 1921, in a Menshevik pamphlet in favor of the Kronstadt rebels and, ironically, against the Bolsheviks. And I dare say that probably wasn't the first time.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )...John Lennon that she at least popularized the slogan, in 1968.
Edit: Wikipedia gives the Black Panthers credit for the slogan, 1968, I credit Elaine Brown from the BPP as the author.
--Me: We! -- Ali
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| parent )As I told a friend of mine last night (perhaps offensively, but I hope not), I wish I could go back in time to before the Palin pick and ask them about the importance of experience and what constituted adequate experience for the presidency, and thus for the vice presidency. In the case of most folks (those without a vested career interest in shilling for McCain-Palin) I don't think people are being insincere, just extremely and obliviously biased due to partisanship.
Then again, I have that kind of wish often, and with regard to partisans of both sides.
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| parent )Cuz, you know. Sales tax, FICA, and gas taxes don't count. Looks pretty comfortable with the topic, wouldn't you say?
It's Robo-Dunce.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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)Is Obama going to cut sales taxes, FICA taxes, or gas taxes for 90% of Americans?
Granted, McCain's statement was incorrect because he ignored those taxes, but the question pertained to Obama's claim, which pertains to income taxes, and that's what McCain was addressing. So do you really think your extreme ridicule is warranted by McCain's response to that question?
I'm asking a lot of you now. Usually I don't bother. But I want to see if you can resist partisanship and ego sufficiently to reconsider.
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| parent )If my taxes are going to go up, then someone is planning on raising my taxes if htey get their hands on the levers of governent. You can call it sunsetting the Bush tax cuts, tithing, adjusting for this or that, the Alternative Maximum Tax, or whatever, but if Pol A or B's plan means I will have to pay more, then he will be raising my taxes if he gets elected. It's really just a math thing.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Although that's unrelated to my response to Harley, I agree with your point. However, I also agree with Hank's reply to you. A True Fiscal Conservativeä favors tax increases now. There is no fiscal conservatism without fiscal responsibility, and it is unrealistic to think we will cut spending sufficiently to adequately reduce our long-term fiscal imbalance through spending cuts alone, which means it's tax increases now, or bigger tax increases later.
And no, tax cuts don't come anywhere close to increasing revenues.
And no, tax cuts don't "starve the beast" so much that they come anywhere close to producing lower deficits.
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| parent )He's going to raise your debt or your taxes.
If he raises your debt, it will be financed by China and other fine friends, the dollar will fall more, and you will spend more on gas and anything with a significant import component.
Actually, all of this has already happened.
So it's the inflation tax or the Federal tax. May I suggest the gentleman consider the democratic version of Federal tax a better deal (for most people)? All consumers pay the inflation tax, but only the wealthier among us will pay for the sunsets in Obama's plan.
--Of course not!
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| parent )deficits are merely deferred taxes, so an increase in deficits or debt also increase your taxes (and your kid's taxes) with interest. Not to mention the problems we've been seeing lately as a result of excessive debt, both public and private.
But keep telling yourself that McCain won't raise your taxes if it comforts you. It's an economics thing.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )A pseudo-sophisticated explanation like yours about how your taxes are actually going down when you pay more each year on the same income is a perfect example of the smoke that's floating around on this issue. Further, if you think either candidate is going to take your or my money and use it to pay down the deficit instead of simply spending it, that smoke has a sweet, resiny smell, with overtones of ironwood needles and coconut.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )in addition, gov't provided health care is likely to be nontrivially cheaper than privately provided health care for the same level of service. Sad, but true.
Both candidates are going to raise your taxes. Both will have to in order to avoid a downgrading of Federal debt. One of them is reasonably honest about it, and the other is not.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Again, I agree that whether or not a given tax has been increased is a matter of whether or not the rate(s) for that tax have gone up, not whether or not they have gone up relative to some baseline that presumes an increase per current law (if that's the difference to which you are referring). So I agree with you on the semantics.
As for your second point, if increased revenues were likely to cause a commensurate increase in spending, deficits would not go down and your point would be valid. But I don't think that premise is valid. Spending might be higher, but not so much higher as to wipe out the deficit reduction achieved through the increased revenues.
The flip-side of essentially the same argument is the "starve the beast" argument -- that reducing revenues by cutting taxes will cause such a great decrease in spending as to avoid increasing deficits*. To the best of my knowledge, it is generally believed that this does not occur.
On the "starve the beast" theory, there is debate among economists and the jury is out among them on whether or not lower taxes induce lower spending at all. It may seem intuitive that lower revenues would induce lower spending, but an intuitive argument is made the other way as well -- that borrowing to spend rather than taxing to spend shields taxpayers from the pain of spending and reduces the incentive to curb spending. In addition to this intuitive aspect, the empirical evidence is debated.
A debate emerged among some economists after this (2004) piece ( http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/v26n2/cpr-26n2-2.pdf ) by William A. Niskanen, Chairman of the Cato Institute and former member and acting chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the (famously free-market) University of Chicago, which has honored him with a lifetime professional service award. Niskanen concluded that tax cuts led to HIGHER, not lower spending.
Conservative economist Gregory Mankiw, who was Chairman of W Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors and is an economics professor at Harvard, noted (in 2006) that another prominent economist reached the opposite conclusion, with some differences in methodology (with perhaps some advantages), albeit with less recent data vs. Niskanen's analysis. Mankiw also notes that (activist “progressive” economist and blogger) Mark Thoma was very critical of Niskanen’s methodology http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/05/a_closer_look_a.html. Mankiw concluded that “Until someone sorts out these apparently conflicting results, it is (as Thoma suggests) premature for anyone…to conclude that Niskanen has the last, or even the most persuasive, word on the topic.” http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/06/starving-beast.html.
More recently, economists Christina and David Romer analyzed the question and found that (quoting the abstract of their paper) “The results provide no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, they suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases.” http://www.nber.org/papers/w13548 The Romers are economic advisors to Obama, although conclusions they have reached in their studies have been cited by conservatives advocating tax cuts (on the basis of GDP growth), and The Economist magazine described them (5/10/07) as having “impeccable neoclassical [economist] credentials” (meaning strongly favoring free markets as a means of efficient allocation of resources). http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9163589.
Discussion of the Romer study at http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/04/new_estimates_o.html and http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2007/04/macroeconomic-effects-of-tax-changes.html
My personal sense is that "starve the beast" may work to some extent, but even if so, it doesn't work nearly well enough to assume that lower taxes today will lead to sufficiently lower spending tomorrow.
* By the way, the key metric to keep our eyes on is the ratio of publicly-held debt-to-GDP (current and projected), not deficits or even debt in absolute terms.
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| parent )how'd that work out?
My explanation isn't sophisticated at all, pseudo- or otherwise. Just don't try to tell me that an attorney doesn't understand the truth behind it. Unless you're one of those people who believes that debt never has to get paid off.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Under Obama the deficit would definitely be lower.
--Of course not!
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| parent )I'm assuming you are basing that statement on what the candidates have each said they want to do, and you may or may not be right (McCain would tax less, but also spend less, and I'm not sure how that would net out vs. Obama's stated preferred policies). But what you may not be considering is what each candidate could actually get through Congress.
Both candidates (supposedly) preferred fiscal policies would worsen our long-term fiscal outlook. But Obama is likely to get much of his policies through Congress, whereas McCain isn't. As funny as it sounds, the best argument for McCain as the choice of someone concerned about our fiscal imbalance is that he won't be able to get what he (supposedly) wants.
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| parent )I'm off to ask some wolves to resist considering that they have pointier teeth than white-tail deer.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )I'm more often accused of being cynical than excessively hopeful ;)
Just thought I'd try to reason with someone and see if he'd respond in a thoughtful, reasonable way despite his partisan tendencies and a likely reluctance to admit a mistake. Not holding my breath, but for some reason I don't consider it an impossibility, and every once in a while even a "cynic" (or as I prefer, a realist) should put his expectations to the test.
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| parent )Why would Harley respond to this garbage? Please stop baiting people into incivility, BBR.
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| parent )Brooks didn't discuss the Democratic side of the ticket, but common sense would tell me that experience matters just as much for Dems as for Repubs.
Going by the probabilities, there is a 14.2% to 15.1% chance that McCain could die before 1-20-2013, which means that there is an 84.9% to 85.8% chance that the more experienced person on the ticket will remain in office all four years.
For Obama, there is a 1.6% chance that he will die before 1-20-2013, which means that there is a 1.6% chance that the more experienced person on the ticket will be president some time before 1-20-2013. Experience does matter, and if the experience is a primary consideration, then the choice should be obvious on the probabilities alone.
None of the above factors in the chance of a president getting assassinated, so the chances of a VP assuming the highest office are somewhat higher.
--"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton
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)And it adds to what seems to be a Palin backlash, that more or less started with the Gibson interview. Her negatives are up. Ridicule is up -- tanning bed-gate! And her own actions aren't helping, whether it's trying to shut down the Trooper-gate investigation, or the pathological need to repeat the Bridge to Nowhere Lie. Gene Robinson's question is worth repeating, if only cuz I'd love to hear your answer:
I agree that the Veep slot rarely impacts election outcome. But when your Veep suffers from the same problem you do and at roughly the same time -- they're both serial liars -- it tends to make a possibly bad situation worse.
BONUS LIAR NOTE! We can apparently add another weirdly pathological lie from the Barracuda:
This notion, that the plucky governor winged it, has been thoroughly debunked, by, among others, Tucker Bounds, a McCain campaign spokesman. Heh.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )judgement. If brooks is panning the pick what does that say about judgement?
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )Gives the illusion of vibrancy, as opposed to wanking about pig & lipstick or how many houses the candidates own. :^)
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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)Topic: Who is to big to fail? McCain thinks AIG is not from what I have heard. I have no idea if that is true?
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )I just bought 600 shares. That old bastard keeps messing with me and it may cost him my vote. Loose lips sink ships, Grandpa! ;^)
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer
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| parent )http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_KYG2wZinLY
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )Sen. McCain my some some ideas as to the desirability/undesirability of a government "bailout" of AIG - and he may not even be wrong: but he certainly needs to get his speech writers/media masseurs to come up with better "hooks" than this gem quote:
Sounds tough and all, but what does it really mean?"Corruption"? What? Does Sen. McCain think AIG's problems stem from the CEO being on the take? The Board of Directors getting briefcases full of cash to overlook dodgy investments? The CFO buying hookers and blow for Federal insurance regulators? I mean, it does make a better soundbite than "systemic institutional market dysfunctions", but reducing complex financial problems like these to simpleton issues of "corruption" is just plain lame. But then, look who we're talking about....
Also: what's with stressing the "moral hazard" bit? Even relatively intelligent high-information voters (like me) have difficulty with the concept as it relates to dollars-and-cents issues like huge companies failing. I notice Bloomberg helpfully adds a definition in their piece; but unless McCain is trying to tie the risks into the "corruption" issue - the sort of everyday usage of "moral" most folks understand - I'm not sure where he is going.
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| parent )But obviously the McCain campaign's angle is on 'reforming' the 'mess'.
The maverick angle is their only in -- McCain + his party have no regulatory bona fides.
It's pretty much their only play.
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| parent )Still drifting. A gov "bailout" may be in the cards, again, as per CNBC, but I don't see that the common can survive one of those.
--The ultimate result of shielding man from the effects of folly is to people the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer