2008 Election Prediction Contest
It's getting close to the end for this election cycle, so it's time for us to see who has the clearest, most penetrating view of American politics. Since this is America, the only fair way to do so is through a contest.
Please make your best estimate of the following in your comment:
- Who will win the Presidency
- The electoral vote count of the winner (you may find this helpful)
- The result of the Senate races, either as the new balance in the Senate (currently 51 Dem-49 Rep, with the 51 including Sanders (VT-Socialist) and Lieberman (CT-Lieberman)) or as the net change (i.e. Dem +6, Rep +3)
- The result of the House races, either as the new balance in the House (currently 235 Dem-199 Rep-1 vacant), or as the net change (i.e. Dem +10, Rep +5)
For extra credit, you can specify any high profile races that you want to include (i.e., Sen - Stevens (AK-R), Coleman (MN-R), McConnell (KY-R))
And of course, any other predictions you would like to make in the comments.
I'll get it started:
Obama wins
378 EV
Senate Dem 59 - Rep 41 (D +8)
House Dem 265 - Rep 170 (D +30)
Edit (by Scott): If anyone wants to change their predictions, but can't because of replies to their comments where they make them, email me before 11:59 PST on Monday, November 3rd with the desired corrections and I'll edit the original predictions.
--
I blame it all on the Internet
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References
Well, part of it, anyway !
(via TPM)
The final count in one of Nebraska's districts went to Obama/Biden, so: under that state's split-EV system, BHO gets one more EV, for a (probably final) total of 365.
And since it looks like MO (11 EV) will be tallied for the GOP (still no official word - but McCain/Palin are up by <6000 votes); it looks like the final Presidential EV tote for 2008 will be 365-173. Sorry, guys!
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)...stole Georgia. But I suppose we'll find out eventually.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Georgia is going to a run-off, so this won't get determined until Dec. 5th at the earliest.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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)nt
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )I just got all excited about turning Montana and North Dakota both.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)Predict which commenter will win the prediction contest.
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| parent )-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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)EDIT: It looks like it may be a few days before we know what happens in NC; Obama has a 12K lead, but provisional ballots need to be checked & (if valid) counted. Not clear how many provisional ballots there are. Link, h/t Politico.
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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| parent )I think I still take it on the basis of the House & Senate.
---“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )... but (assuming NE-2 & MO stay red, and NC stays blue) that means Spin Doctor & I correctly predicted the EC count - 364 to 174. If NE-2 & MO stay red, and the provisionals put NC in the red column, you got the EC vote correct. Only Bill White gets it right if all remaining EC votes go to Obama.
You & I both picked +7 Dems for the Senate; Spin & BW picked +8.
BW picked + 31 Dems, Spin picked +20, you picked +19, and I picked +17. If I'm reading the current situation right, it'll end up being between +19 and +25 seats to the Democrats.
Sorry if I'm missing anyone else who might be close. But if it ends up being Obama 364EV & +19 in the House, I'll have been closer in the House count than you were in the EV count - but Spin will be closer in the House than I was, so it'll maybe depend on the MN & GA Senate races. I think if one ends up going blue, then it's definitely Spin's win - I'm not sure what happens if they both go red.
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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| parent )the Forvm prediction contest (and who therefore has felt the pulse most correctly)?
Just so we know who to trust next time round.
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)The EV and Senate counts aren't official yet.
Very close in VA, MO, NC, IN - GA still counting provisionals.
But I rest assured that HankP will let us know a.s.a.p.
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| parent )it will be at least a couple days until all the numbers are in.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )are looking good at 364 for Obama, but we'll see where it ends up. (I think Spin & I were the only ones who picked 364, anyway.)
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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| parent )Time to go to Vegas?
--Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain
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| parent )... I say we hit the craps table first.
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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| parent )But given the election results, we also have to hit the blackjack tables!
--Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain
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| parent )Pres (EV): Obama/Biden 317, McCain/Palin 221
Sen: Dem+ I 60, Rep 40
House: Dem 262 Rep 173
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Obama -- will win more than 330 EV. I say 353.
Senate:
D - 58 R-40 I-2
House:
D - 265 R - 170
Obama will break 52% of the popular vote. > 52.1%
The koolaid is tasting pretty good this morning.
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent ). . .and takes the plunge*
McCain 274
Obama 264
Obama wins the popular vote but fails to get 50%, creating months of steady work for "we must abolish the Electoral College *NOW*" idiots.
Senate: 56 Dems, plus Lieberman and Sanders. Stevens loses, Coleman wins (MN learned its lesson about electing idiot celebrities with Ventura)
House: +8 Dem
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)McCain loses PA but wins all the tossup states including FL and wins all the weak Dem states, NV CO OH VA. I'm curious, which of the two - Smith or Dole, do you believe will withstand the tide and retain their seat?
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )IMO they're very willing to elect idiot celebrities.
But Franken has run a surprisingly negative campaign and I think he's turned voters off.
I've been watching the iowa futures market but I'm afraid it's been of little help. This baby is neck + neck.
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| parent )Obama/Biden:321
McCain/Palin: 217. OH, IN, MO stay red. FL, VA go blue.
Senate D 57 R 43 (D +6)
House D 260 R 175 (D +25)
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Senate: Dem 57 - Rep 41 - I 2 (D +8)
House: Dem + a bunch, say +23
Lieberman loses his committee chairmanships but remains in D caucus.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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)I voted 4.5 days ago + it was harder back then to be accurate.
At the least people who voted first should get their results weighted.
I don't have a specific suggestion about the weighting, but just make it so that I win if I'm close.
Thanks Hank.
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| parent )My login has yet to be seriously put into danger.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )We'll see about that, PM! I tied you last time.
However, looking back just now at my recent prediction, I see that I am dead wrong about the senate. So then again, maybe not.
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| parent )No such thing as too cocky. Particularly for an economist. :^)
---“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )...to make weathermen look good. But that's a separate issue.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )You know that catchy.
And your vote has been so weighted for its impetuousness.
Good luck.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )your predictions are far enough apart that it won't matter who posted first.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )-- 82 of which is due to superior get-out-the-vote.
Senate D - 59, R - 41
--House D - 266, R - 169
Steven Palmer Peterson
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).
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )ND --
-- though I'm wondering how much of a ground game O has in ND and Missouri.
edit -- to clarify I meant ND blue
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )the onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/48940
that was 15 years ago.
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)The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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)Obama 306
McCain 232
Senate:
Dems 59 Repubs 41
House:
Dems 260 Repubs 175
I almost hope the Dems don't pick up 60 Senate seats. It would be great to kick Lieberman out of the caucus.
--I went to YOUR institutional learning facilities?! So how can you say I'M crazy? - S. Tendencies
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )McCain wins
295 EV
Senate Dem 55 - Rep 43 (D +3) (2I)
House Dem 245 - Rep 190 (D +10)
Oh and McCain wins - NV, CO, FL, NC, VA, OH, MO, MT, ND, PA
Stevens is out, Coleman hangs on same as do many others. Anti-Obama turn out (not Bradley effect) is unprecedented.
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)Arizona's governor will appoint?
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )so sure :) And special election might further slim that Dem margin!
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| parent )I'd be willing to bet a bottle of good liquor on that with you, at least on the "McCain wins" part.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )on my extremely non-partisan and objective viewpoint!
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| parent )or anti-Dem, but anti-Obama?
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )Not many people are really voting for McCain. But the Obama adulation is extremely overstated. (I hope)
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| parent )I see recognition and in order to win, Obama needs a sizable number of people to recognize their former misplaced adulation for one George W Bush.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )of the misplaced adulation for W.
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| parent )and regardless of 'experience', it's McCain that has displayed 'Bush like' levels of incompetence throughout his campaign, not Obama.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )Obama is sleek though and it helps having 90% of the media in the tank.
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| parent )but Youtube helped Obama overcome McCain's advantage in that area.
I think it was Palin that really turned the Corporate Media against McCain. She was just too stupid and crazy.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )is not 90% of 'the media', just sayin.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )I have a running bet with my friend Peter. It's all based on the price of retail gasoline. If it's over 2.50 USD, Obama wins. Less, McCain wins.
Other factors figure in. A surprisingly large percentage of the population is undecided. Virginia could go either way. Indiana, Ohio and Missouri, same story. When the Pucker Factor is finally entered into the equation, which way will fear drive the sheeple? They're never very smart, those sheeple. Issues don't drive them, it's the amount of torque and tension applied to the tuchus muscles, and much of the wind will break Republican. Sheeple are like that.
The sheeple are badly cornfuzed and the markets zig and zag like methamphetamine-fuel'd hillbillies headed into town for a round of drinks at The Brass Rail.
I don't have the John King add-em-up widget, but I won't give Obama more than 320 electoral votes, and there will be some recounts.
Senate goes 57 Dems, with the Repubs getting the rest, not sure how to count Judas Lieberman.
House is too tough to count. 250 Dems?
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)thing reminds me of the run up to the 1995 Tour de France. The cycling press (or MSM if you prefer) were falling all over themselves trying to build up that years "epic" battle between Tony "The Rominator" Rominger and Miguel "Big Mig" Indurain. I think everyone here at the Forvm™ knows how well THAT turned out!
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent ).
--For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin
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| parent )Obama, 396-142
59 Dems in the Senate, + Bernie Sanders + Joe Lieberman.
Dems pick up 32 in the House.
Remember, folks -- I'm a pessimist.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)....a very pessimistic picture. :^)
---“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )Obama wins, but it's a lot closer than it should be given Bush, and given McCain's horrendous campaign.
Dems have major pickups in the house & Senate, but don't reach 60 in the senate.
I know, I know, predicting with no numbers is kind of like playing roulette and putting all my money on "dark." Can't wait to see what I win!
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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)Republicans paint him as a radical who hangs out with zealots and terrorists (SNCC, panthers, Malcolm X, commies, sit-ins and walkouts), a community organizer with no executive experience, a convicted criminal who did time in Birmingham, a redistributionist with socialist tendencies (slave reparations), a big softie who prefers talking with enemies to blowing up their churches and shooting their kids, and a guy who deep down hates America. Fun thought experiment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ypl25QiDOw
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )It's inappropriate for you to include Malcolm X in that list. While it's true that he was driven to extremist views by the Nation of Islam and a racist white America, his ideology and activism evolved into a call for equality after his trip to Mecca. His legacy is one of transcendence, not of zealotry. MLK was one of the persons who recognized this:
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| parent )I was just guessing how the election would be going from the Repub side.
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )"Jordan", huh?
Good thing for you that we get along with King Abdullah or you'd be facing some pretty tough questioning right now.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )One day when our soldiers are dying in occupied Syria and combating border incursions, I expect I'll have to start going by my middle name.
Not that "Supergenious" makes a terrible handle.
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent ).
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )But that's besides the point. You telling me you'd vote for him? "Inspirational" leadership is about the one thing I run screaming from in politics.
---“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )MLK did a lot of actual leadership. Changed the course of history, that kind of thing. Cf. Gandhi, Mandela.
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )It simply admits violence only begets more violence and is therefore counterproductive in a struggle where a peaceful outcome is the goal.
I once had a captain who'd studied Gandhi, he made this point to us over and over: the objective is never gained without struggle. It's the nature of the struggle which defines us.
Which is why these NeverFindOut.org ads are nothing but claptrap and hooey. It's a cover for the bigots of Let Freedom Ring.
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| parent )you win the "forvm pvssy award".
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )I score all the time?
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )that means you have one of these shirts?
Which review is yours?
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )you score with all the women at this blog. All, uh, one of them?
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Score!
[note to husbands/SO's of jerseycityjoan and athenas owl: It's not me, it's my wolf sweater. I swear!]
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )we should turn the whole thing over to her.
--"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta
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| parent )Senate: Democrats: 59 and GOP: 41
House: +31 for the Democrats
Georgia will have a Senate runoff
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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)no more edits. ;-)
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )OK
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )Obama garners 382 EVs, surprising in Georgia and Montana, but losing West Virginia and Indiana.
In the Senate, Franken and Chambliss win in MN and GA, getting the Dems to the magical 60 seat mark. (Not that it matters that much... as one Senator put it, it's a zone, not a line.)
And in the House, unexpectedly strong black turnout lets the Dems overperform, winning 29 extra seats.
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)no more edits. ;-)
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )...
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| parent )OK
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain
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)Obama 286
McCain 252
In a nailbiter, Obama holds all the Kerry states plus Iowa & NM. Picks up Virginia and Colorado. Fails to take Ohio, Florida, by close margins and NC by a not-so-close margin.
Senate: 56 (D), 42(R), 2 (I) (D +6)
House: 255 (D), 180 (R) (D +20)
Stevens (AK) hangs on. McConnell (KY) hangs on. (The ability to unashamedly and openly seek Pork for ones constituents and deliver on same is a very very powerful influence.)
Coleman (MN) is gone.
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)no more edits. ;-)
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )OK
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )Obama wins
--348 EV
Senate: D +7
House: D +19
-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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)no more edits. ;-)
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )OK :)
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )I will enter this prediction on behalf of Dan Perrin & Redstate.
Not worth quoting the whole thing, because it's almost entirely the tired old "Real Americans Hate the Media and Every Candidate They Stand For" nonsense... but, tucked almost apologetically at the bottom, is this:
So, the contest is over, because I clearly already won.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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)If McCain wins, November 4 will in fact be "a date of defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective consciousness." Right?
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )That's an understatement. It would also distort presidential politics pretty much for the rest of our lifetimes. It will be gaffe patrols, guilt by association, and character smears. Little else. Because the lesson of this election will be that it works.
--“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
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| parent )in order to disagree with you? Strange.
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )A McCain win also enhances Democratic control of the Senate and sets the table for even more House and Senate wins in 2010.
A strident President McCain (especially if egged on by a vocal Veep Palin) would seem disastrous for the GOP in Congress.
Especially if POTUS McCain tells Maliki "We ain't leaving!" and Maliki replies "Yes, you are!"
What's the status of SOFA, anyway?
= = =
Nope, the narrative if McCain wins should be:
"Hatred won this one for the GOP, but tomorrow is another day, and we must fight on . . ."
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )Karl Rove politics work. Honesty is dead. Issues are moribund. People want Springer, not West Wing.
It will be a hard, even soul-killing admission to have to make, but be prepared for a 2012 campaign that's all chair hurling all the time.
I'm gonna pray that doesn't happen.
--"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
–Voltaire
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| parent )It would be a shock to them, certainly, but it wouldn't be the kind of landslide that '72 was, for example. So I don't think it would result in any major changes to the party platform etc.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )How did another defeated political party head put it? “If the day should ever come when we must go, if some day we are compelled to leave the scene of history, we will slam the door so hard that the universe will shake and mankind will stand back in stupefaction.”
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| parent )You seem to be one of the few here who is absolutely certain McCain will lose.
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )And I'll be part of them. Because no way is that going to come about legally.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Yep, especially inside Iraq, and unless McCain caves to Maliki on certain SOFA points POTUS McCain's approval numbers with the American people shall hit the current Bush levels very rapidly. GOP disaster in the 2010 mid terms.
Does anyone except John McCain still believe Maliki will accept a "conditions based" time line for US withdrawal?
= = =
Will there by riots by the Palin-istas if POTUS McCain fails to kow-tow sufficiently to the Extreme Right?
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )and 69. You'll be able to see the fires from the moon.
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| parent )Not that it matters much. The net effect of the '68 riots appears to have been burnt-out hulks I was still passing by in Newark as of 1999 (and were finally bulldozed because of the Bubble!) and some stories from a couple of super-old-timers in my Guard unit.
No, they never will learn. You just can't teach a Sneetch....
Bernard McMonkey McBean
---“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009
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| parent )I remember visiting my grandparents in Jersey City as a kid, it would have been in 1968 or 69. They lived in an apartment on Grand St., you could see the beginnings of the World Trade Center towers going up across the river. I was sitting on the front stoop with my younger brother and my older cousin when a black kid who was about our age walked by. I don't remember the conversation exactly, but I do know that my cousin called the black kid a nigger, which was a word I wasn't familiar with at the time. The kid came back with his father about five minutes later, and he asked to talk to our parents. My Dad came out and talked to him for a few minutes, then called my brother and me inside. He asked if we had used "that word", and we both said no. I do remember, very clearly, having him tell us "Don't you pay attention to the news? There are riots and cities being set on fire over things like this. Don't ever say something like that to a black person."
So looking back, I'd have to say that there was some respect born out of fear. Certainly not the way we would want things to happen in an ideal world, but we don't live in an ideal world.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )I think it's worth about three points on average, up to about six in some states. Diebold is worth another one or two where Republicans are governors. Hence my narrower call.
But I don't think it's enough to turn the tide. Unless something pretty dramatic happens, I don't see how McCain can pull through. And I'm definitely convinced that Palin is a net drag on McCain. Perhaps two points, maybe three.
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )by which Diebold can deliver votes for McCain in states with Republican governors?
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )...the machines are hackable, do not generate a real-time paper trail, and generally not secure. The source code is proprietary. Nothing some well run auditing and sampling could not detect, but with a Republican governor this is less likely.
Will it happen everywhere the GOP has the statehouse? I wouldn't say that. But it will happen somewhere, maybe somewhere important.
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )besides your belief in their everlasting goodness, honesty and belief in What Is Right? And do you know of any significant degree of election fraud being committed by republican-affiliated agencies?
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )Summarized here:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/republican_voter_suppression_a.php
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )Just for starters.
Blackwell was an active Republican who stated in public he would do everything possible for the GOP to win in Ohio. This was in 2004, and he has since resigned. But the company remains in conservative hands.
Since you share my mistrust of the other side, would you agree that only a voting system that creates a human-readable paper ballot the voter can look at after voting is acceptable? Paperless electronic voting is simply impossible to audit.
Also, would you agree that voting software, and the full stack it sits on should be open source, and thus a part of the public record?
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )I agree with all of your questions on paper versus electronic ballots. Other than Florida 2000 and ballot boxes found floating in San Francisco Bay, what proof was there that the old paper ballot system needed improvement?
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )Paper ballots should be standardized to no more than two or three well-designed federally approved templates across the whole country.
There is no justification for digital voting machines. It is a huge capital outlay for equipment that becomes obsolete rather quickly and after very few uses. At the same time, they add a layer of complexity to recount and auditing, so more cost. I don't see the point.
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )but, pardon me, asserting that Republican governors (why governors?) will be able to deliver votes comes perilously close to tinfoil-hat territory. The allegations of vote fraud in the 2004 election were pretty conclusively debunked -- Polls can be wrong! Who knew? -- and there is simply no evidence to support the idea.
IMO the entire country should adopt Oregon's system of mail-in voting. The concept of a single nationwide "election day" is an anachronism, like letting schools out for the summer so the kids can work on the farm.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )distribution of voting machines.
For example, deploy 1 machine per 300 registered voters in favored precincts and 1 machine per 1,000 registered voters in disfavored precincts.
Votes are also being suppressed by caging.
Nope, its not Diebold techs re-writing code but rather more old fashioned methods.
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )in the country, with its machines in 43 states. Link.
I think if we looked closely at the mysterious push to switch to electronic vote tallies in many states, we'd see big money changing hands. And like you said, nothing was broken in the first place; the last time there were serious allegations of paper ballot voter fraud genuinely affecting a Presidential election was back in 1962.
--Sincerity is the first casualty of capitalism. John Burdett
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| parent )nt
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )That almost all the touch screen machines were gone, and that paper ballots that were optically scanable were the standard in a vast majority of voting locations.
--All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
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| parent )which printed a paper ballot on something that looked like over-sized cash register tape.
I could see the tape through a glass window and had to press "confirm" to get to the next screen.
I preferred the "darken the oval" ballot used in prior cycles but I'm not terribly fearful in my County since intramural GOP politics can be hotly contested and if there were voter fraud it wouldn't be only against Democrats and sooner or later some disgruntled GOP primary candidate would have to know about the conspiracy.
I am firmly convinced EVERY vote needs a paper trail however unless someone explains why I am wrong, that register tape idea seems to provide that paper trail.
--The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.
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| parent )One thing that I find so problematic about the Diebold business is that it takes a legitimate issue, that electronic voting (that stores the votes on Microsoft Access!) is kind of a wretched idea, and folds it into a left-wing myth: Of course Kerry won in Ohio, but they used Diebold machines to change the outcome and the conspiracy has stayed completely tight lipped about it.
Taking a good critique and grafting it onto a myth tends to make reasonable people dismiss the critique. Kind of the way in which all of the crazy that the McCain campaign is drawing in is sinking McCain the candidate.
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| parent )...I don't think Kerry won in Ohio.
There was fraud, but not enough to cover the difference, which was rather large. I did the math at the time and gave up on the fraud theory. That said, the behavior of the GOP at the time was hardly transparent and invited accusations of fraud. There were also reports of long lines to vote in minority districts.
Florida in 2000 was definitely fraudulent. It wasn't just the butterfly ballot getting retired Jews to vote for Pat Buchanan. It was a lot, some claim 20,000 (but note that even 1/20th of that claim would have flipped the result), eligible black voters turned away at the polls using no-vote lists made in Texas for people with matching names.
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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| parent )being very broadly defined to include 'sounds like' or 'similar to' and different 1st name but same surname.
--"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias
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| parent )WV, for example, is still using the machines, and the touchscreens are already registering straight-D choices as straight-R votes.
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/7a6fr/to_the_guy_who_programmed_this_voter_system_fuck/
http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200810170676?page=2&build=cache
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q9NSVUu8nk
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| parent )not only is it worth reading in full, the comments are worth their weight in comedy gold.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )the comments are very funny indeed. Let's hope they all head over to InTrade and buy up McCain at 10:1.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )that people lie to pollsters for all sorts of reasons, race among them, but I think Dan would be better off to reconcile himself with President Obama and the opportunities that affords rather than living in denial.
--"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta
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| parent )Obama - 310
--Senate Dem 59, Rep 41
House Dem 260
“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco
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)Obama: 364 EV
--Senate: 59-41 Dems
House: 255-180 Dems
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )379 EV
Senate Dem 59- Rep 41 McConell survives as does Saxy B Chambless
House Crap shoot .... Dems +27
Cal prop 8 fails
SD 11 fails....
Biggest upset Omaha gives Obama 1 EV....
If it is a tidal wave it could be 61 in the senate and who know in the house....
--I did see a poll that had Arionia within 4 points...
Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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)Missouri is still out but McCain has 6000 vote lead...not sure on what vote is left?
Montana did not fall for me
North Carolina is still out but with Obama up...
prop 8 looks to pass sadly for the country..... Still do not understand why it does not take a super majority to amend the constitution?
SD 11 did fail
Not sure on Georgia but I would bet the chambless gets his seat even in a run off...Georgia has almost a millon votes to count.....
Smith should lose OR if the counties out are the ones they seem to be
Not sure on Stevens he is out one way or another.. Just heard they have about 100,000 early votes to count....
The Frankin race in minn is to close to calll
--Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )- Obama
--- 353
- 58/42
- Dem +19
The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Obama wins
364 EV (O loses MT, IN, ND; wins NV, CO, MO, OH, FL, NC)
Senate: D +7 (Dem 58 - Rep 42; Dems pick up AK, NC; Reps hold MN)
House: D +17 (Dem 252 - Rep 183; Reps take PA 11 & 12)
Game 5 of the World Series ends sometime Saturday.
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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)... the winner should be able to strip Kimmit (a/k/a PM) of his now-stale title, if the winner so chooses. Maybe we could also arrange a heavily-ritualized defrocking ceremony (a/k/a a free trip to Hawaii).
--Bene vixit, bene qui latuit
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| parent )Obama - 291 EV (loses OH, or PA, but not both.)
Senate Dems - 57 (D +6)
House Dems - 260 (D +25)
Those I'll stand by all the way to the election.
For the Senate, here are my total guesses (I won't back these up even in the next five minutes), for sport:
Stevens hangs on. Coleman is out. McConnell stays.
--My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )O- 353 (loses MO, IN, MT, ND but wins NV, NC, OH, FL)
Senate-- D +9
House-- no idea
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )The next President of the United States will be Robert Barr of Georgia!
Or not.
Obama - 333 EV.
Senate - Dem 60 Rep 40
House - Dem 250 Rep 185
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'll get back to my Sour Apple Mogen-David and Prozac.
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)I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )O = 348EV
Sen = 59 - 41
House = 263 - 172
So Hank, 378 means you think Obama wins ND or MT? I say he wins neither and not IN or MO.
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)I'm on my sixth beer, so I don't remember the exact state configuration I put together. I'm just getting the feeling from the early voting and turnout figures that it's gonna be a big one this year, and I don't see a lot of enthusiasm on the R side.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )So you're that guy. I always wondered.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )