2008 Election Prediction Contest

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 10/28/2008 - 10:53pm

Politics

It's getting close to the end for this election cycle, so it's time for us to see who has the clearest, most penetrating view of American politics. Since this is America, the only fair way to do so is through a contest.

Please make your best estimate of the following in your comment:

- Who will win the Presidency

- The electoral vote count of the winner (you may find this helpful)

- The result of the Senate races, either as the new balance in the Senate (currently 51 Dem-49 Rep, with the 51 including Sanders (VT-Socialist) and Lieberman (CT-Lieberman)) or as the net change (i.e. Dem +6, Rep +3)

- The result of the House races, either as the new balance in the House (currently 235 Dem-199 Rep-1 vacant), or as the net change (i.e. Dem +10, Rep +5)

For extra credit, you can specify any high profile races that you want to include (i.e., Sen - Stevens (AK-R), Coleman (MN-R), McConnell (KY-R))

And of course, any other predictions you would like to make in the comments.

I'll get it started:

Obama wins
378 EV
Senate Dem 59 - Rep 41 (D +8)
House Dem 265 - Rep 170 (D +30)

Edit (by Scott): If anyone wants to change their predictions, but can't because of replies to their comments where they make them, email me before 11:59 PST on Monday, November 3rd with the desired corrections and I'll edit the original predictions.

Obama wins Nebraska!

(#135462)

Submitted by Jay C on Fri, 11/07/2008 - 11:49pm.

Well, part of it, anyway !

(via TPM)

The final count in one of Nebraska's districts went to Obama/Biden, so: under that state's split-EV system, BHO gets one more EV, for a (probably final) total of 365.
And since it looks like MO (11 EV) will be tallied for the GOP (still no official word - but McCain/Palin are up by <6000 votes); it looks like the final Presidential EV tote for 2008 will be 365-173. Sorry, guys!

I still think the GOP...

(#136000)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Tue, 11/11/2008 - 3:38pm.

...stole Georgia. But I suppose we'll find out eventually.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Sorry guys

(#134730)

Submitted by HankP on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 11:45pm.

Georgia is going to a run-off, so this won't get determined until Dec. 5th at the earliest.

I blame it all on the Internet

Recount in Mn is going to take awhile also....

(#134732)

Submitted by Davinci on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 11:48pm.

Ask courageous questions. Do not be satisfied with superficial answers. Be open to wonder and at the same time subject all claims to knowledge, without exception, to intense skeptical scrutiny. Be aware of human fallibility. Cherish your species and your

I like Steve Peterson on this one.

(#134541)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 12:36pm.

I just got all excited about turning Montana and North Dakota both.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

2008 Election Prediction Contest

(#134634)

Submitted by catchy on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 5:40pm.

Predict which commenter will win the prediction contest.

I think I got the win. - nt

(#134501)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 10:44am.

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

Not if NC goes blue.

(#134503)

Submitted by hobbesist on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 10:58am.

EDIT: It looks like it may be a few days before we know what happens in NC; Obama has a 12K lead, but provisional ballots need to be checked & (if valid) counted. Not clear how many provisional ballots there are. Link, h/t Politico.

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

That's only a net +4 for BO (net of MO + NC)

(#134780)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Thu, 11/06/2008 - 9:49am.

I think I still take it on the basis of the House & Senate.

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

Umm, right, BG

(#134794)

Submitted by hobbesist on Thu, 11/06/2008 - 10:23am.

... but (assuming NE-2 & MO stay red, and NC stays blue) that means Spin Doctor & I correctly predicted the EC count - 364 to 174. If NE-2 & MO stay red, and the provisionals put NC in the red column, you got the EC vote correct. Only Bill White gets it right if all remaining EC votes go to Obama.

You & I both picked +7 Dems for the Senate; Spin & BW picked +8.

BW picked + 31 Dems, Spin picked +20, you picked +19, and I picked +17. If I'm reading the current situation right, it'll end up being between +19 and +25 seats to the Democrats.

Sorry if I'm missing anyone else who might be close. But if it ends up being Obama 364EV & +19 in the House, I'll have been closer in the House count than you were in the EV count - but Spin will be closer in the House than I was, so it'll maybe depend on the MN & GA Senate races. I think if one ends up going blue, then it's definitely Spin's win - I'm not sure what happens if they both go red.

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

So who won

(#134479)

Submitted by mmghosh on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 8:23am.

the Forvm prediction contest (and who therefore has felt the pulse most correctly)?

Just so we know who to trust next time round.

Can't say yet, manish

(#134496)

Submitted by Jay C on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 10:20am.

The EV and Senate counts aren't official yet.

Very close in VA, MO, NC, IN - GA still counting provisionals.

But I rest assured that HankP will let us know a.s.a.p.

Yup

(#134573)

Submitted by HankP on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 2:50pm.

it will be at least a couple days until all the numbers are in.

I blame it all on the Internet

I think Spin & I

(#134499)

Submitted by hobbesist on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 10:32am.

are looking good at 364 for Obama, but we'll see where it ends up. (I think Spin & I were the only ones who picked 364, anyway.)

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

Road Trip Hobbesist?

(#134511)

Submitted by Spin Doctor on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 11:46am.

Time to go to Vegas?

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

In the spirit of bipartisanship

(#134513)

Submitted by hobbesist on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 11:51am.

... I say we hit the craps table first.

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

Works for me!

(#134515)

Submitted by Spin Doctor on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 11:56am.

But given the election results, we also have to hit the blackjack tables!

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

Am I too late?

(#134064)

Submitted by Jay C on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 9:31am.

Pres (EV): Obama/Biden 317, McCain/Palin 221

Sen: Dem+ I 60, Rep 40

House: Dem 262 Rep 173

lock nt

(#134142)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 12:09pm.

I blame it all on the Internet

Big win.

(#133643)

Submitted by thepuppethead on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:04am.

Obama -- will win more than 330 EV. I say 353.

Senate:

D - 58 R-40 I-2

House:

D - 265 R - 170

Obama will break 52% of the popular vote. > 52.1%

The koolaid is tasting pretty good this morning.

lock nt

(#134020)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:16am.

I blame it all on the Internet

*Scott Glances At Prior Predictions. . .

(#133618)

Submitted by M Scott Eiland on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 11:09am.

. . .and takes the plunge*

McCain 274
Obama 264
Obama wins the popular vote but fails to get 50%, creating months of steady work for "we must abolish the Electoral College *NOW*" idiots.

Senate: 56 Dems, plus Lieberman and Sanders. Stevens loses, Coleman wins (MN learned its lesson about electing idiot celebrities with Ventura)

House: +8 Dem

To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--from Ulysses, by Alfred, Lord Tennyson

A bold prediction

(#133662)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 12:52pm.

McCain loses PA but wins all the tossup states including FL and wins all the weak Dem states, NV CO OH VA. I'm curious, which of the two - Smith or Dole, do you believe will withstand the tide and retain their seat?

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

I don't think MN has learned anything of the sort

(#133641)

Submitted by catchy on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 12:15pm.

IMO they're very willing to elect idiot celebrities.

But Franken has run a surprisingly negative campaign and I think he's turned voters off.

I've been watching the iowa futures market but I'm afraid it's been of little help. This baby is neck + neck.

Alright

(#133392)

Submitted by Model 62 on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 4:49pm.

Obama/Biden:321

McCain/Palin: 217. OH, IN, MO stay red. FL, VA go blue.

Senate D 57 R 43 (D +6)
House D 260 R 175 (D +25)

lock nt

(#134021)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:17am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Obama 344 EV

(#133327)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 10:55am.

Senate: Dem 57 - Rep 41 - I 2 (D +8)
House: Dem + a bunch, say +23

Lieberman loses his committee chairmanships but remains in D caucus.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

I want this tossed out

(#133389)

Submitted by catchy on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 4:23pm.

I voted 4.5 days ago + it was harder back then to be accurate.

At the least people who voted first should get their results weighted.

I don't have a specific suggestion about the weighting, but just make it so that I win if I'm close.

Thanks Hank.

Enh.

(#133469)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Sun, 11/02/2008 - 7:15am.

My login has yet to be seriously put into danger.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Hmm....

(#133957)

Submitted by thepuppethead on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 10:16pm.

We'll see about that, PM! I tied you last time.

However, looking back just now at my recent prediction, I see that I am dead wrong about the senate. So then again, maybe not.

Ha! I like the cut of your jib, my boy!

(#133675)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 1:16pm.

No such thing as too cocky. Particularly for an economist. :^)

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

Economists have been put here...

(#134189)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 1:59pm.

...to make weathermen look good. But that's a separate issue.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

The undecideds are king

(#133406)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:11pm.

You know that catchy.

And your vote has been so weighted for its impetuousness.

Good luck.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Oh catchy

(#133399)

Submitted by HankP on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 5:27pm.

your predictions are far enough apart that it won't matter who posted first.

I blame it all on the Internet

Obama 393

(#133130)

Submitted by Steve Peterson on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 2:13pm.

-- 82 of which is due to superior get-out-the-vote.

Senate D - 59, R - 41
House D - 266, R - 169

Steven Palmer Peterson

Montana or ND red? -nt-

(#133158)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 3:01pm.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

North Dakota Blue

(#133166)

Submitted by Steve Peterson on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 3:15pm.

ND --

-- though I'm wondering how much of a ground game O has in ND and Missouri.

edit -- to clarify I meant ND blue

Steven Palmer Peterson

for predictions, no can beat

(#132952)

Submitted by nilsey on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:41pm.

the onion:

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/48940

that was 15 years ago.

Member of the Forvm Five

Some 538 snark about Illinois election results

(#132904)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:31pm.

When we ran Illinois through our similarity score matrix, one of the first states that came up was California. The comparison seems counter intuitive at first, but each state contains a similar mash-up of demographics, of city, suburb, sprawl, and farmlands, and the two states have voted with one another every year since 1964. Imagine California, throw in a home-field advantage for the Democrat, and you can understand how much McCain is going to get crushed. Even if Obama were not from Illinois, the state would still not be a good fit for McCain's temperament, as we tend to prefer cool-headed pragmatism to hot-tempered idealism. The only thing that may hold Obama's margins back is that half of Chicago may be volunteering in Indiana or Wisconsin on Election Day.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Prediction

(#132850)

Submitted by Blue Neponset on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 2:17pm.

Obama 306
McCain 232

Senate:

Dems 59 Repubs 41

House:

Dems 260 Repubs 175

I almost hope the Dems don't pick up 60 Senate seats. It would be great to kick Lieberman out of the caucus.

"And now you run in search of the Jedi. They are all dead, save one. And one broken Jedi cannot stop the darkness that is to come." -Darth Sion

lock nt

(#134022)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:17am.

I blame it all on the Internet

my humble predictions

(#132836)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:53pm.

McCain wins
295 EV
Senate Dem 55 - Rep 43 (D +3) (2I)
House Dem 245 - Rep 190 (D +10)

Oh and McCain wins - NV, CO, FL, NC, VA, OH, MO, MT, ND, PA

Stevens is out, Coleman hangs on same as do many others. Anti-Obama turn out (not Bradley effect) is unprecedented.

Does that Senate count include the Democrat

(#132901)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:25pm.

Arizona's governor will appoint?

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

it's the final count

(#132909)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:37pm.

so sure :) And special election might further slim that Dem margin!

Wow

(#132879)

Submitted by HankP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:02pm.

I'd be willing to bet a bottle of good liquor on that with you, at least on the "McCain wins" part.

I blame it all on the Internet

no bets please

(#132900)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:24pm.

on my extremely non-partisan and objective viewpoint!

Not pro-Republican

(#132840)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:58pm.

or anti-Dem, but anti-Obama?

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

yup anti-Obama

(#132849)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 2:15pm.

Not many people are really voting for McCain. But the Obama adulation is extremely overstated. (I hope)

Eye of the beholder, where you see adulation

(#132875)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 2:53pm.

I see recognition and in order to win, Obama needs a sizable number of people to recognize their former misplaced adulation for one George W Bush.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

I'll agree on the sizable existence

(#132897)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:18pm.

of the misplaced adulation for W.

Once bitten, twice shy

(#132908)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:36pm.

and regardless of 'experience', it's McCain that has displayed 'Bush like' levels of incompetence throughout his campaign, not Obama.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

eh I'll disagree there

(#132911)

Submitted by EnderSC on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:38pm.

Obama is sleek though and it helps having 90% of the media in the tank.

You'd think that,

(#132931)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 4:12pm.

but Youtube helped Obama overcome McCain's advantage in that area.

I think it was Palin that really turned the Corporate Media against McCain. She was just too stupid and crazy.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

MSNBC

(#132916)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:43pm.

is not 90% of 'the media', just sayin.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Count me as a pvssy, if you like

(#132835)

Submitted by BlaiseP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:47pm.

I have a running bet with my friend Peter. It's all based on the price of retail gasoline. If it's over 2.50 USD, Obama wins. Less, McCain wins.

Other factors figure in. A surprisingly large percentage of the population is undecided. Virginia could go either way. Indiana, Ohio and Missouri, same story. When the Pucker Factor is finally entered into the equation, which way will fear drive the sheeple? They're never very smart, those sheeple. Issues don't drive them, it's the amount of torque and tension applied to the tuchus muscles, and much of the wind will break Republican. Sheeple are like that.

The sheeple are badly cornfuzed and the markets zig and zag like methamphetamine-fuel'd hillbillies headed into town for a round of drinks at The Brass Rail.

I don't have the John King add-em-up widget, but I won't give Obama more than 320 electoral votes, and there will be some recounts.

Senate goes 57 Dems, with the Repubs getting the rest, not sure how to count Judas Lieberman.

House is too tough to count. 250 Dems?

True, but this whole

(#132913)

Submitted by Elagabalus on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:39pm.

thing reminds me of the run up to the 1995 Tour de France. The cycling press (or MSM if you prefer) were falling all over themselves trying to build up that years "epic" battle between Tony "The Rominator" Rominger and Miguel "Big Mig" Indurain. I think everyone here at the Forvm™ knows how well THAT turned out!

I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine

Well, two of us do, anyway NT

(#132973)

Submitted by Weyland on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 7:42pm.

For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin

Prediction

(#132816)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:50pm.

Obama, 396-142
59 Dems in the Senate, + Bernie Sanders + Joe Lieberman.
Dems pick up 32 in the House.

Remember, folks -- I'm a pessimist.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Well, I agree that you're painting....

(#132824)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:13pm.

....a very pessimistic picture. :^)

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

I'm no good with election numbers. Here goes:

(#132788)

Submitted by Jordan on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:03pm.

Obama wins, but it's a lot closer than it should be given Bush, and given McCain's horrendous campaign.

Dems have major pickups in the house & Senate, but don't reach 60 in the senate.

I know, I know, predicting with no numbers is kind of like playing roulette and putting all my money on "dark." Can't wait to see what I win!

Thank you! Vote Republican!

Martin Luther King, Jr. runs for President this year.

(#132794)

Submitted by Jordan on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:15pm.

Republicans paint him as a radical who hangs out with zealots and terrorists (SNCC, panthers, Malcolm X, commies, sit-ins and walkouts), a community organizer with no executive experience, a convicted criminal who did time in Birmingham, a redistributionist with socialist tendencies (slave reparations), a big softie who prefers talking with enemies to blowing up their churches and shooting their kids, and a guy who deep down hates America. Fun thought experiment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ypl25QiDOw

Thank you! Vote Republican!

terrorists and zealots

(#132986)

Submitted by Username on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 9:15pm.

It's inappropriate for you to include Malcolm X in that list. While it's true that he was driven to extremist views by the Nation of Islam and a racist white America, his ideology and activism evolved into a call for equality after his trip to Mecca. His legacy is one of transcendence, not of zealotry. MLK was one of the persons who recognized this:

While we did not always see eye to eye on methods to solve the race problem, I always had a deep affection for Malcolm and felt that he had the great ability to put his finger on the existence and root of the problem. He was an eloquent spokesman for his point of view and no one can honestly doubt that Malcolm had a great concern for the problems that we face as a race.

Not my view of Malcolm the Tenth either,

(#133023)

Submitted by Jordan on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 7:15am.

I was just guessing how the election would be going from the Repub side.

Thank you! Vote Republican!

Wait a minute

(#133034)

Submitted by HankP on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:09am.

"Jordan", huh?

Good thing for you that we get along with King Abdullah or you'd be facing some pretty tough questioning right now.

I blame it all on the Internet

I know, that worries me too.

(#133036)

Submitted by Jordan on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:19am.

One day when our soldiers are dying in occupied Syria and combating border incursions, I expect I'll have to start going by my middle name.

Not that "Supergenious" makes a terrible handle.

Thank you! Vote Republican!

It's more impressive when you spell it correctly nt

(#133043)

Submitted by HankP on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:45am.

I blame it all on the Internet

I dunno, I kinda like it that way. -nt-

(#133047)

Submitted by Jordan on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:03am.

Thank you! Vote Republican!

Actually, MLK wasn't a pacifist, per se.

(#132811)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:39pm.

But that's besides the point. You telling me you'd vote for him? "Inspirational" leadership is about the one thing I run screaming from in politics.

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

Who said anything about "inspirational leadership"?

(#133024)

Submitted by Jordan on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 7:16am.

MLK did a lot of actual leadership. Changed the course of history, that kind of thing. Cf. Gandhi, Mandela.

Thank you! Vote Republican!

Correct: satyagraha is not pacifism.

(#132818)

Submitted by BlaiseP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:55pm.

It simply admits violence only begets more violence and is therefore counterproductive in a struggle where a peaceful outcome is the goal.

I once had a captain who'd studied Gandhi, he made this point to us over and over: the objective is never gained without struggle. It's the nature of the struggle which defines us.

Which is why these NeverFindOut.org ads are nothing but claptrap and hooey. It's a cover for the bigots of Let Freedom Ring.

I'll tell you what you win

(#132793)

Submitted by HankP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:13pm.

you win the "forvm pvssy award".

I blame it all on the Internet

Because...

(#132796)

Submitted by Jordan on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:17pm.

I score all the time?

Thank you! Vote Republican!

So...

(#132805)

Submitted by aireachail on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:31pm.

that means you have one of these shirts?

Which review is yours?

Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham

Yup

(#132801)

Submitted by HankP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:23pm.

you score with all the women at this blog. All, uh, one of them?

I blame it all on the Internet

Smartest two women in America?

(#132827)

Submitted by Jordan on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:25pm.

Score!

[note to husbands/SO's of jerseycityjoan and athenas owl: It's not me, it's my wolf sweater. I swear!]

Thank you! Vote Republican!

We have that many left? - nt

(#132810)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:36pm.

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

In the interests of diversity

(#132822)

Submitted by Sulla on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:04pm.

we should turn the whole thing over to her.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Here we go . . . Obama: 376 & McCain: 162

(#132705)

Submitted by Bill White on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:33pm.

Senate: Democrats: 59 and GOP: 41
House: +31 for the Democrats

Georgia will have a Senate runoff

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Lock it up . . .

(#132707)

Submitted by Bill White on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:34pm.

no more edits. ;-)

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

OK

(#132712)

Submitted by Elagabalus on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:37pm.

I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine

Okay, here's the correct answer...

(#132672)

Submitted by Wagster on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:59pm.

Obama garners 382 EVs, surprising in Georgia and Montana, but losing West Virginia and Indiana.

In the Senate, Franken and Chambliss win in MN and GA, getting the Dems to the magical 60 seat mark. (Not that it matters that much... as one Senator put it, it's a zone, not a line.)

And in the House, unexpectedly strong black turnout lets the Dems overperform, winning 29 extra seats.

"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs

Lock it up . . .

(#132706)

Submitted by Bill White on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:33pm.

no more edits. ;-)

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Bastard!

(#132730)

Submitted by Wagster on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 10:25pm.

...

"I don't want us to descend into a nation of bloggers." - Steve Jobs

OK

(#132711)

Submitted by Elagabalus on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:37pm.

I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine

November 5th

(#132614)

Submitted by Spin Doctor on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 2:53pm.

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

My entry

(#132613)

Submitted by uh_clem on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 2:53pm.

Obama 286 McCain 252

In a nailbiter, Obama holds all the Kerry states plus Iowa & NM. Picks up Virginia and Colorado. Fails to take Ohio, Florida, by close margins and NC by a not-so-close margin.

Senate: 56 (D), 42(R), 2 (I) (D +6)

House: 255 (D), 180 (R) (D +20)

Stevens (AK) hangs on. McConnell (KY) hangs on. (The ability to unashamedly and openly seek Pork for ones constituents and deliver on same is a very very powerful influence.)

Coleman (MN) is gone.

Lock it up . . .

(#132708)

Submitted by Bill White on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:34pm.

no more edits. ;-)

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

OK

(#132713)

Submitted by Elagabalus on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:37pm.

I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine

I'm in.

(#132606)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 2:05pm.

Obama wins
348 EV
Senate: D +7
House: D +19

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

Lock it up . . .

(#132709)

Submitted by Bill White on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:35pm.

no more edits. ;-)

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

OK :)

(#132714)

Submitted by Elagabalus on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:38pm.

OK :)

I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine

Since they are too modest to do it themselves

(#132596)

Submitted by stillnotking on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:13pm.

I will enter this prediction on behalf of Dan Perrin & Redstate.

There are seven serious, historic, demographic and other wise culturally compelling reasons Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin will win the election on November 4, 2008 – a date of defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective consciousness.

Not worth quoting the whole thing, because it's almost entirely the tired old "Real Americans Hate the Media and Every Candidate They Stand For" nonsense... but, tucked almost apologetically at the bottom, is this:

Simply put, Asians, Whites and Hispanics have and will lie to pollsters about their intention to vote for Senator Obama. According to the Associated Press, this will cost Obama six points at the polls. The AP estimate could be low. In the case of Bradley and Wilder, the spread between a “lead” in the polls and actual votes cast was in the low double digits.

So, the contest is over, because I clearly already won.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

One of Redstate's points is correct:

(#132630)

Submitted by tomsyl on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:19pm.

If McCain wins, November 4 will in fact be "a date of defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective consciousness." Right?

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

Sear Itself?

(#133280)

Submitted by Harley on Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:25pm.

That's an understatement. It would also distort presidential politics pretty much for the rest of our lifetimes. It will be gaffe patrols, guilt by association, and character smears. Little else. Because the lesson of this election will be that it works.

“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco

Didn't you accuse me elsewhere of following you around

(#133286)

Submitted by tomsyl on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 12:19am.

in order to disagree with you? Strange.

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

Since the Governor of AZ is Democratic

(#132745)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:17am.

A McCain win also enhances Democratic control of the Senate and sets the table for even more House and Senate wins in 2010.

A strident President McCain (especially if egged on by a vocal Veep Palin) would seem disastrous for the GOP in Congress.

Especially if POTUS McCain tells Maliki "We ain't leaving!" and Maliki replies "Yes, you are!"

What's the status of SOFA, anyway?

= = =

Nope, the narrative if McCain wins should be:

"Hatred won this one for the GOP, but tomorrow is another day, and we must fight on . . ."

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Here's what Democrats would learn from a McCain victory:

(#132653)

Submitted by Jordan on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:04pm.

Karl Rove politics work. Honesty is dead. Issues are moribund. People want Springer, not West Wing.

It will be a hard, even soul-killing admission to have to make, but be prepared for a 2012 campaign that's all chair hurling all the time.

I'm gonna pray that doesn't happen.

Thank you! Vote Republican!

Probably not

(#132651)

Submitted by stillnotking on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:02pm.

It would be a shock to them, certainly, but it wouldn't be the kind of landslide that '72 was, for example. So I don't think it would result in any major changes to the party platform etc.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Won't. Happen. Der Untergang is in store for the RNC.

(#132642)

Submitted by BlaiseP on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:44pm.

How did another defeated political party head put it? “If the day should ever come when we must go, if some day we are compelled to leave the scene of history, we will slam the door so hard that the universe will shake and mankind will stand back in stupefaction.”

Do you believe there will be riots if Obama loses?

(#132644)

Submitted by tomsyl on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:47pm.

You seem to be one of the few here who is absolutely certain McCain will lose.

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

Yes.

(#133470)

Submitted by Punditus Maximus on Sun, 11/02/2008 - 7:17am.

And I'll be part of them. Because no way is that going to come about legally.

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Do you believe there will be riots if Obama loses?

(#132747)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:15am.

Yep, especially inside Iraq, and unless McCain caves to Maliki on certain SOFA points POTUS McCain's approval numbers with the American people shall hit the current Bush levels very rapidly. GOP disaster in the 2010 mid terms.

Does anyone except John McCain still believe Maliki will accept a "conditions based" time line for US withdrawal?

= = =

Will there by riots by the Palin-istas if POTUS McCain fails to kow-tow sufficiently to the Extreme Right?

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

If he loses? Absolutely. They'll burn the major cities like 68

(#132650)

Submitted by BlaiseP on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:00pm.

and 69. You'll be able to see the fires from the moon.

Thank goodness nobody lives in those things anymore.

(#132741)

Submitted by Bernard Guerrero on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 6:32am.

Not that it matters much. The net effect of the '68 riots appears to have been burnt-out hulks I was still passing by in Newark as of 1999 (and were finally bulldozed because of the Bubble!) and some stories from a couple of super-old-timers in my Guard unit.

No, they never will learn. You just can't teach a Sneetch....

Bernard McMonkey McBean

-“It is unwise for the government to tell people how they can spend their money” - Barney Frank, Chairman House Financial Services Committee, on on-line gambling, 2009

It had more of an effect than that

(#132791)

Submitted by HankP on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:11pm.

I remember visiting my grandparents in Jersey City as a kid, it would have been in 1968 or 69. They lived in an apartment on Grand St., you could see the beginnings of the World Trade Center towers going up across the river. I was sitting on the front stoop with my younger brother and my older cousin when a black kid who was about our age walked by. I don't remember the conversation exactly, but I do know that my cousin called the black kid a nigger, which was a word I wasn't familiar with at the time. The kid came back with his father about five minutes later, and he asked to talk to our parents. My Dad came out and talked to him for a few minutes, then called my brother and me inside. He asked if we had used "that word", and we both said no. I do remember, very clearly, having him tell us "Don't you pay attention to the news? There are riots and cities being set on fire over things like this. Don't ever say something like that to a black person."

So looking back, I'd have to say that there was some respect born out of fear. Certainly not the way we would want things to happen in an ideal world, but we don't live in an ideal world.

I blame it all on the Internet

To be fair, I do buy the theory.

(#132608)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 2:16pm.

I think it's worth about three points on average, up to about six in some states. Diebold is worth another one or two where Republicans are governors. Hence my narrower call.

But I don't think it's enough to turn the tide. Unless something pretty dramatic happens, I don't see how McCain can pull through. And I'm definitely convinced that Palin is a net drag on McCain. Perhaps two points, maybe three.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

What is the mechanism

(#132610)

Submitted by stillnotking on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 2:46pm.

by which Diebold can deliver votes for McCain in states with Republican governors?

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Well...

(#132622)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 3:44pm.

...the machines are hackable, do not generate a real-time paper trail, and generally not secure. The source code is proprietary. Nothing some well run auditing and sampling could not detect, but with a Republican governor this is less likely.

Will it happen everywhere the GOP has the statehouse? I wouldn't say that. But it will happen somewhere, maybe somewhere important.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

What guarantees Dems won't hack voting machines

(#132631)

Submitted by tomsyl on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:21pm.

besides your belief in their everlasting goodness, honesty and belief in What Is Right? And do you know of any significant degree of election fraud being committed by republican-affiliated agencies?

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

Lots of voter suppression efforts across the country

(#132739)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:32am.

Summarized here:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/republican_voter_suppression_a.php

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Well the guy who ran Diebold was not exactly a Dem.

(#132637)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:39pm.

Just for starters.

Blackwell was an active Republican who stated in public he would do everything possible for the GOP to win in Ohio. This was in 2004, and he has since resigned. But the company remains in conservative hands.

Since you share my mistrust of the other side, would you agree that only a voting system that creates a human-readable paper ballot the voter can look at after voting is acceptable? Paperless electronic voting is simply impossible to audit.

Also, would you agree that voting software, and the full stack it sits on should be open source, and thus a part of the public record?

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

What percentage of voting machines aren't made by Diebold?

(#132643)

Submitted by tomsyl on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 4:46pm.

I agree with all of your questions on paper versus electronic ballots. Other than Florida 2000 and ballot boxes found floating in San Francisco Bay, what proof was there that the old paper ballot system needed improvement?

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

None

(#132652)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:03pm.

Paper ballots should be standardized to no more than two or three well-designed federally approved templates across the whole country.

There is no justification for digital voting machines. It is a huge capital outlay for equipment that becomes obsolete rather quickly and after very few uses. At the same time, they add a layer of complexity to recount and auditing, so more cost. I don't see the point.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

We certainly agree about e-voting

(#132746)

Submitted by stillnotking on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:13am.

but, pardon me, asserting that Republican governors (why governors?) will be able to deliver votes comes perilously close to tinfoil-hat territory. The allegations of vote fraud in the 2004 election were pretty conclusively debunked -- Polls can be wrong! Who knew? -- and there is simply no evidence to support the idea.

IMO the entire country should adopt Oregon's system of mail-in voting. The concept of a single nationwide "election day" is an anachronism, like letting schools out for the summer so the kids can work on the farm.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

Votes can be delivered by disproportinate

(#132748)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:21am.

distribution of voting machines.

For example, deploy 1 machine per 300 registered voters in favored precincts and 1 machine per 1,000 registered voters in disfavored precincts.

Votes are also being suppressed by caging.

Nope, its not Diebold techs re-writing code but rather more old fashioned methods.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

None?? ES&S claims it's the largest voting machine manufacturer

(#132670)

Submitted by tomsyl on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:43pm.

in the country, with its machines in 43 states. Link.

I think if we looked closely at the mysterious push to switch to electronic vote tallies in many states, we'd see big money changing hands. And like you said, nothing was broken in the first place; the last time there were serious allegations of paper ballot voter fraud genuinely affecting a Presidential election was back in 1962.

Politicians spend our money like a pimp with only a week to live. CJ Boxx

I was answering the "what proof" question!

(#132678)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 7:24pm.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

I thought

(#132668)

Submitted by DNR-DC on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 5:36pm.

That almost all the touch screen machines were gone, and that paper ballots that were optically scanable were the standard in a vast majority of voting locations.

All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.

I voted on a Diebold touch screen machine

(#132751)

Submitted by Bill White on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:26am.

which printed a paper ballot on something that looked like over-sized cash register tape.

I could see the tape through a glass window and had to press "confirm" to get to the next screen.

I preferred the "darken the oval" ballot used in prior cycles but I'm not terribly fearful in my County since intramural GOP politics can be hotly contested and if there were voter fraud it wouldn't be only against Democrats and sooner or later some disgruntled GOP primary candidate would have to know about the conspiracy.

I am firmly convinced EVERY vote needs a paper trail however unless someone explains why I am wrong, that register tape idea seems to provide that paper trail.

The proper balance between defense and welfare are the tectonic plates that lie beneath our political discourse.

Two Conflated Issues

(#132754)

Submitted by AndrewSshi on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:37am.

One thing that I find so problematic about the Diebold business is that it takes a legitimate issue, that electronic voting (that stores the votes on Microsoft Access!) is kind of a wretched idea, and folds it into a left-wing myth: Of course Kerry won in Ohio, but they used Diebold machines to change the outcome and the conspiracy has stayed completely tight lipped about it.

Taking a good critique and grafting it onto a myth tends to make reasonable people dismiss the critique. Kind of the way in which all of the crazy that the McCain campaign is drawing in is sinking McCain the candidate.

For the record...

(#132757)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 9:19am.

...I don't think Kerry won in Ohio.

There was fraud, but not enough to cover the difference, which was rather large. I did the math at the time and gave up on the fraud theory. That said, the behavior of the GOP at the time was hardly transparent and invited accusations of fraud. There were also reports of long lines to vote in minority districts.

Florida in 2000 was definitely fraudulent. It wasn't just the butterfly ballot getting retired Jews to vote for Pat Buchanan. It was a lot, some claim 20,000 (but note that even 1/20th of that claim would have flipped the result), eligible black voters turned away at the polls using no-vote lists made in Texas for people with matching names.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

'Matching'

(#132773)

Submitted by Spartacvs on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 11:11am.

being very broadly defined to include 'sounds like' or 'similar to' and different 1st name but same surname.

"Something I think most liberals don't understand is exactly how stupid many conservative leaders are." - Matt Yglesias

Nope

(#132736)

Submitted by Username on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:04am.

WV, for example, is still using the machines, and the touchscreens are already registering straight-D choices as straight-R votes.

http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/7a6fr/to_the_guy_who_programmed_this_voter_system_fuck/

http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200810170676?page=2&build=cache

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q9NSVUu8nk

You are incorrect

(#132600)

Submitted by HankP on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:32pm.

not only is it worth reading in full, the comments are worth their weight in comedy gold.

I blame it all on the Internet

I stand corrected

(#132603)

Submitted by stillnotking on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:42pm.

the comments are very funny indeed. Let's hope they all head over to InTrade and buy up McCain at 10:1.

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

I'm open to the idea

(#132599)

Submitted by Sulla on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:27pm.

that people lie to pollsters for all sorts of reasons, race among them, but I think Dan would be better off to reconcile himself with President Obama and the opportunities that affords rather than living in denial.

"We should not tie the hands of law enforcement in the effort to bring these terrorists to justice"- Leon E. Panetta

Hmmm

(#132569)

Submitted by Harley on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 10:34am.

Obama - 310
Senate Dem 59, Rep 41
House Dem 260

“Two clichés make us laugh but a hundred clichés move us, because we sense dimly that the clichés are talking among themselves, celebrating a reunion." - Umberto Eco

I'll take O for the win, Alex

(#132567)

Submitted by Spin Doctor on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 10:26am.

Obama: 364 EV
Senate: 59-41 Dems
House: 255-180 Dems

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain

lock nt

(#134024)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:19am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Ok ....

(#132564)

Submitted by Davinci on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 10:24am.

379 EV
Senate Dem 59- Rep 41 McConell survives as does Saxy B Chambless
House Crap shoot .... Dems +27
Cal prop 8 fails
SD 11 fails....

Biggest upset Omaha gives Obama 1 EV....

If it is a tidal wave it could be 61 in the senate and who know in the house....
I did see a poll that had Arionia within 4 points...

looks like my best case here was off.....

(#134471)

Submitted by Davinci on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 7:37am.

Missouri is still out but McCain has 6000 vote lead...not sure on what vote is left?
Montana did not fall for me
North Carolina is still out but with Obama up...
prop 8 looks to pass sadly for the country..... Still do not understand why it does not take a super majority to amend the constitution?
SD 11 did fail

Not sure on Georgia but I would bet the chambless gets his seat even in a run off...Georgia has almost a millon votes to count.....

Smith should lose OR if the counties out are the ones they seem to be

Not sure on Stevens he is out one way or another.. Just heard they have about 100,000 early votes to count....

The Frankin race in minn is to close to calll

lock nt

(#134025)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:19am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Short & sweet

(#132555)

Submitted by stillnotking on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:42am.

- Obama
- 353
- 58/42
- Dem +19

The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.

lock nt

(#134026)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:20am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Fun!

(#132547)

Submitted by hobbesist on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 8:42am.

Obama wins
364 EV (O loses MT, IN, ND; wins NV, CO, MO, OH, FL, NC)
Senate: D +7 (Dem 58 - Rep 42; Dems pick up AK, NC; Reps hold MN)
House: D +17 (Dem 252 - Rep 183; Reps take PA 11 & 12)

Game 5 of the World Series ends sometime Saturday.

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

Also

(#132556)

Submitted by hobbesist on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 9:46am.

... the winner should be able to strip Kimmit (a/k/a PM) of his now-stale title, if the winner so chooses. Maybe we could also arrange a heavily-ritualized defrocking ceremony (a/k/a a free trip to Hawaii).

Bene vixit, bene qui latuit

OK

(#132544)

Submitted by M Aurelius on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 8:32am.

Obama - 291 EV (loses OH, or PA, but not both.)

Senate Dems - 57 (D +6)

House Dems - 260 (D +25)

Those I'll stand by all the way to the election.

For the Senate, here are my total guesses (I won't back these up even in the next five minutes), for sport:

Stevens hangs on. Coleman is out. McConnell stays.

My country, right or wrong is a thing no patriot would ever think of saying... It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.' -Chesterton

lock nt

(#134027)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:20am.

I blame it all on the Internet

OK

(#132542)

Submitted by BChurch on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 7:57am.

O- 353 (loses MO, IN, MT, ND but wins NV, NC, OH, FL)
Senate-- D +9
House-- no idea

lock nt

(#134028)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:20am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Well, if I had to guesstimate...

(#132525)

Submitted by Walsingham on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:32am.

The next President of the United States will be Robert Barr of Georgia!

Or not.

Obama - 333 EV.
Senate - Dem 60 Rep 40
House - Dem 250 Rep 185

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'll get back to my Sour Apple Mogen-David and Prozac.

lock nt

(#134029)

Submitted by HankP on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 2:21am.

I blame it all on the Internet

Predictor bodictor

(#132521)

Submitted by catchy on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 12:21am.

O = 348EV

Sen = 59 - 41

House = 263 - 172

So Hank, 378 means you think Obama wins ND or MT? I say he wins neither and not IN or MO.

Well

(#132524)

Submitted by HankP on Wed, 10/29/2008 - 1:16am.

I'm on my sixth beer, so I don't remember the exact state configuration I put together. I'm just getting the feeling from the early voting and turnout figures that it's gonna be a big one this year, and I don't see a lot of enthusiasm on the R side.

I blame it all on the Internet