This election can't come soon enough
With a pen and not a sword, Russia has managed to destroy a large part of the US strategic energy plan in Central Asia, the Middle East, the Caucuses and Europe. They have managed to make the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline a pipeline in search of gas to transport. They have put Iran in a much, much stronger position as a supplier of gas to the west. Oh, and also:
Without getting into details, China Daily merely took note of the talks as "a good beginning" and commented, "It seems that a shift of Russia's energy export policy is under way. Russia might turn its eyes from the Western countries to the Asia-Pacific region ... The cooperation in the energy sector is an issue of great significance for Sino-Russian relations ... the political and geographic closeness of the two countries would put their energy cooperation under a safe umbrella and make it a win-win deal. China-Russia ties are at their best times ... The two sides settled their lingering border disputes, held joint military exercises, and enjoyed rapidly increasing bilateral trade."
and it gets even better:
Besides, Russia is taking a renewed interest in the idea of a "gas cartel". Medvedev referred to the idea during the visit of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Moscow last week. The Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on Friday that "Moscow finds the idea of coordination of gas production and pricing policy with other gas exporters to be too tempting to abandon". The daily quoted Miller as saying, "This forum of gas exporters will set up the global gas balance. It will give answers to the questions concerning when, where and how much gas should be produced."
Eating our lunch, drinking our milkshake, call it what you will but the US just got left out in the cold. The Russians aren't even planning to make much money on the deal, but they are positioning themselves as the sole distributor of gas to Europe and China. They are looking ahead to scarce energy supplies and planning accordingly.
I'm tired of seeing the US get outplayed because of a willfully ignorant administration that sees military action as the preferred form of negotiation and diplomacy and compromise as weakness. As the old saying goes, Americans play checkers and Russians play chess. We haven't been checkmated, but we're down a few pieces and our King is close to being threatened.
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Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. - Deep Throat
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Iran will have trouble exporting anything within the next decade. JFTR
Europe and the PRC weren't engaged in any armed conflict but according to you they were still played by the Russians. Please explain the logic of your diary. if you can.
BTW, Russia has no problem supporting dictators in Central Asia. Are you suggesting that we change our foreign policy accordingly?
In any event, Al Gore says we won't need carbon based fuels at the end of the next decade. Is Al making misleading statements?
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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)1. makes no sense at all
2. not all strategic wins require armed conflict, another shortcoming of the current administration's approach to foreign policy
3. We have no problem supporting dictators in the Middle East, what's the difference?
4. Gore laud out a goal, unfortunately with the usual Republican obstruction it's doubtful it will be reached.
You're slipping, Timmy. Better (or at least comprehensible) arguments, please.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )1. Iranian reserves and domestic consumption. You need to keep up..
2. I believe you need to reread your comment and expand your understanding on geopolitics.
3. The Bush Doctrine, the move towards democracy. Apparently, you prefer oil.
4. What obstruction are you referring to? You also need to read up on grid dynamics.
Slipping, not at all, just less snark (out of practive but my game will pick up).
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent )1.
I don't see any problem there.
2. I believe you need to explain yourself (again)
3. The Bush doctrine? What exactly is that but a post facto excuse for the mess in Iraq? What other countries is it being applied to?
4. You've made excellent progress in using a subject, a verb and an object in your sentences. Now you need to work on making a logically consistent argument.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )1. Your analysis needs to moveout about six to seven years. Nice graph but please note it is a "Short-Term Energy Outlook" and dated.
2. Not at all. You lament about a region in which liberals (American Democrats) required that we pull out of.
3. Actually, it is about a doctrine which is actually working out very nicely. You do understand that Iran lost and that a Republic of Iraq will put additional pressure on Iran.
4. So you understand that Al is a moonbat. There is hope for yet.
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent )(headquartered in Tehran) and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (also headquartered in Tehran). Both groups have been Iranian financed since the Iran-Iraq war. Both supported the Iranian revolution. SCIRI is led by an Ayatollah, currently Ayatollah Abdul Aziz al-Hakim
Meanwhile Dawa's platform is theocracy city, baby:
- Absolute sovereignty belongs to God.
- Islamic injunctions are the basis of legislation. The legislative authority may enact any law not repugnant to Islam.
- The people, as vice-regents of Allah, are entrusted with legislative and executive powers.
- The jurist holding religious authority represents Islam. By confirming legislative and executive actions, he gives them legality.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )nt
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent ).
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )I think all that about DAWA and Islamism is true, and I know that Timmy and others will instinctually deny it. It's clearly better for Iran to share a border with these Shia Islamists than Saddam, but how is this a loss for the US? Obviously the dream of an Iraq which shuns Iran and embraces Israel was always foolishness.
If I were Iraqi I suppose I would have a lot of problems with the theocracy, but not as an American. Pakistan, Israel, Sri Lanka, pre 9/11 Afghanistan, and even the UK are nations that have much closer church/state ties than Americans would tolerate, yet they all have enjoyed cordial relations with the US.
--Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just
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| parent )nt
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent ).
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )Iran has huge reserves and are the second largest oil producer, if their production declines the world price will rise - how exactly does that hurt them? The oil will still be in the ground, appreciating every year. They can always look to Russia for technology to increase production, since we've pretty much excluded the US from consideration. They haven't lost anything, they have the equivalent of an ally in Iraq that we installed for them. You don't see Ahmadinejad sneaking in and out of there the way our top officials do. I'm guessing you're dreaming of another US coup - dream on.
I never said China and Europe got played, I said the US got played. Try reading what I wrote.
I asked for any other country that the Bush doctrine had been applied to. Once again, no response.
As to Al Gore, he's a moonbat hahaha. Too bad he's been right on so many issues and you and your party have been so wrong. My guess is that if the 50% who voted for Bush were asked who they would vote for given the chance to do it over, Gore would win in a landslide.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )should have been the subject of your diary.
Your underlying premise was false and it went downhill from there.
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent )...energy supply and dominance. The question is, Is the US even in the game any more? Does it even know HOW to play?
There is a large article in Asia Times on this, here, with an excerpt:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JG19Ag01.html
In sum, the past week's flow of events in places as far apart as Prague, Hokkaido, Tbilisi, Harare, Tehran and the Arctic underscored that after a brief respite, the rivalries over energy security have revived with a ferocity that can rock the equilibrium of overall US-Russia relations. The situation will likely be exacerbated in the coming period. The geopolitics of energy security are a highly sensitive subject for the Bush administration, whose profound links with Big Oil are legion. It is a tremendous loss of face for the Bush-Cheney-Rice combine that Moscow is outwitting the US on the energy front.
The very real question is, Who do you want to be friends with, the US or Russia? We are making the answer of this question more difficult for many countries by playing the game...so badly?
It is possible as Mac asserts that the hand the US has been dealt is being played as well as possible....but I sense that this is not the case.
In too many places, in too many ways...the US is losing out, (see also China's new push into Nigerian Oil this week...everybody is there but us).
Traveller
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)I've been following Bhadrakumar's essays on Russian gas predominance for at least a couple of years now, and they seem to be reaching a peak in stridency.
I linked to and quoted from this article a few days ago in thread that bemoaned the Iraq war, what with over a million dead, and bugger-all to show for it. I pointed out the marvelous news that after 36 years of Saddam imposed exile, US oil companies were once again doing business in Iraq, home of perhaps the world's largest reserves of high quality oil. Not only that, but Russian, Chinese and Indian companies were completely shut out of the new contracts. Dullards here cried "conspiracy theorist" and I was forced to apologize for having the temerity to point out these happy facts.
--Nothing resembles virtue more than a great crime. Saint-Just
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| parent )The hits keep on coming.
We can keep playing this game -- and keep losing, since as, Macallan notes, the playing field isn't level -- or we can try our luck at a different game.
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)I thought that was a Diplomacy link.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Is front page quality?
Geesh.
--“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
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)is a quality comment on the diary?
I just wrote it, I didn't vote for it.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )…or even intending to criticize the diary itself. Diaries are for this kind of steam venting, so I see nothing wrong with this diary (well besides the illogicality of the notions it is primarily based on, but that's another subject all together).
I'm just surprised at some of the spleeny type diaries that are getting green lighted – that's all. Nothing directed at you.
--“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
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| parent )but reflects poorly on the general population.
--“Let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”
John F. Kennedy
January 20, 1961
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| parent )...allow me to explain:
I flip by this site once or twice a day, and of late I've noticed that the front page is often three or four days old. That's eternity in the blogosphere.
Since I don't have as much time as I'd like to make thoughtful comments here, at least I can keep the front page current. So I sometimes vote for less-than-grade-A topics just to keep the site moving.
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| parent )cuz somebody has to!
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )then what's your take on this article from Bloomberg?
and
Gazprom now supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas. Do you think some sort of leverage doesn't come with that? Check with the Ukraine: they might disagree.
And as for Senator McCain's stated goal of kicking Russia out of the G8? That just dropped stone dead in the parking lot.
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| parent )“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
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| parent )regardless of partisan perspective.
Oil & gas pipelines and resource power politics are a critical topic and since chest thumping ["These colors don't run!"] or ["Bush is a moron"] appears to trump nuanced geopolitical analysis in the MSM anything that attempts to place such issues on the radar screen should be encouraged.
In this instance, the Administration has indeed been seeking to execute a comprehensive but not well publicized plan seeking leverage over Central Asian natural resources.
And yes, Putin drank our milkshake. I blame pre-occupation with Iraq for our paying insufficient attention to such issues. Both the media and the Administration.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )a discussion of the issue and a critique of the diary rather than the voting habits of the site members.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )The notions the diary is based on make little sense. Structurally, the US (under *any* administration), the EU, and the various energy public entities, can't even begin to "compete" with a quasi-fascist state tool like Gazprom on something like this, nor should they ever.
Sorry, this is just a tantrum blaming Bush with zero basis in reality. Failing to recognize that the legal and political barriers to any administration doing "something" in a situation like this have long been in place, should stay in place, and are kind of the entire foundation of this country and the rest of the liberal democratic world undermines the entire thing.
--“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
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| parent )- why can't we compete on these terms
- why shouldn't we ever want to compete on these terms
- why aren't there areas that we can compete in that would give us a chance at influencing the former SSRs
I never claimed to be an expert on Central Asian energy policy, but from what I read we sure as hell were pushing for a different outcome. I'd be interested in the specifics of why I'm so wrong about this.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )interests while acknowledging the realities of how Gazprom operates.
Six or seven years ago, our so-called foreign policy experts foresaw yet another "American century" of global dominance even while critics saw an Administration going "All In!" while holding two measly pairs.
Yes, America remains the strongest individual nation, however we haven't the strength (hard power, soft power or economic power) to go it alone. Therefore we CANNOT dismiss what the Europeans want, we cannot dismiss what the Russians or Japanese or Chinese want, and so on.
Six or seven years ago the American chest thumpers were predicting the demise of the European Union and the collapse of the Euro. How did that work out?
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )“I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”
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| parent )I comment on. A lot get FP'd, which makes it easier to navigate replies to.
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| parent )our hallowed F-P is not your play thing!
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| parent )He's moved the term "user" to an entirely new level!
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )much of the time, and I'm often away for more than a few days at a time in places where even dialup isn't available. That said, I think this diary is about an important aspect of the energy debate which is important at so many levels.
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| parent )But I was expressing admiration for your ability to work the site to your best benefit, not criticism.
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )1. Russians make a lucrative move with their abundant natural gas supplies;
2. ??????????
3. IT'S DUBYA'S FAULT!
Well, now I know what the Underpant Gnomes have been doing since their appearance on South Park--they've been writing logic textbooks.
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)meaning Putin of course.
Maybe Dubya did the best he (or anyone) could do concerning Central Asian policy. In any event, we may well need a better Central Asian strategery or we need to acknowledge growing limits on our status as the world's sui generis super-power.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )How could W "get beat" by Putin. Don't you remember -- Bush "got a sense of his soul" during their first meeting early on in W's administration. No one could pull the wool over the eyes of ol' Dubya.
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| parent )Don't you know that Step 2 doesn't matter??
Kossan.se
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| parent )that the US has been pushing for a pipeline to bypass Iran and Russia for years? And that many observers of the region (pdf) have decried the lack of engagement of the current administration? This is one of the bases of long term security and influence for the US, it might be a good idea to take it a little more seriously.
You also didn't read the article, the move isn't lucrative at all in the usual meaning of the term (i.e., they are not going to make much money from the deal). It is strategically important, as it makes Russia the near exclusive distributor of energy to Europe and China. I don't understand your response, if it doesn't include a military response it isn't important? Or is any criticism of Bush misguided?
--I blame it all on the Internet
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