Poppy fields forever.


Living just next to a porous border, I get to meet up with some of our local intelligencewallahs from time to time who are trying to plug a long border to assorted militants extending across four countries.

It was interesting to read Thomas Schweich holding a very similar opinion in the NYT recently (uncannily similar to our local intelligencewallah, who gets information about Afghan poppy cultivation 2500 miles away from his own sources) on the complex and confused mix of narcotics, terror, warlords, intelligence agencies, NATO involvement that is modern Afghanistan.

Mr Schweich is an experienced man in this field.

On March 1, 2006, I met Hamid Karzai for the first time. It was a clear, crisp day in Kabul. The Afghan president joined President and Mrs. Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Ambassador Ronald Neumann to dedicate the new United States Embassy. He thanked the American people for all they had done for Afghanistan. I was a senior counternarcotics official recently arrived in a country that supplied 90 percent of the world’s heroin. I took to heart Karzai’s strong statements against the Afghan drug trade. That was my first mistake.

He makes a strong case for the penetration of narcotics money into the highest levels of Afghanistan's current government.

A lot of intelligence — much of it unclassified and possible to discuss here — indicated that senior Afghan officials were deeply involved in the narcotics trade. Narco-traffickers were buying off hundreds of police chiefs, judges and other officials. Narco-corruption went to the top of the Afghan government. The attorney general, Abdul Jabbar Sabit, a fiery Pashtun who had begun a self-described “jihad against corruption,” told me and other American officials that he had a list of more than 20 senior Afghan officials who were deeply corrupt — some tied to the narcotics trade. He added that President Karzai — also a Pashtun — had directed him, for political reasons, not to prosecute any of these people. (On July 16 of this year, Karzai dismissed Sabit after Sabit announced his candidacy for president. Karzai’s office said Sabit’s candidacy violated laws against political activity by officials. Sabit told a press conference that Karzai “has never been able to tolerate rivals.”)

Mr Karzai, the US's favourite ally, plays a clever game.

Karzai then put General Khodaidad (who, like many Afghans, goes by only one name) in charge of the Afghan counternarcotics efforts. Khodaidad — a conscientious man, competent and apparently not corrupt — was a Hazara. The Hazaras had no influence over the southern Pashtuns who were dominating the drug trade. While Khodaidad did well in the north, he got nowhere in Helmand and Kandahar — and told me so. Karzai had to have known this would be the case.

There is an Afghan Poppy Eradication Force (a name worthy of aireachail), which would be humorous if it just wasn't so unfortunate

The plan was simple. The Afghan Poppy Eradication Force would go to Helmand Province with two battalions of the national army and eradicate the fields of the wealthier farmers — including fields owned by local officials. Protecting the eradication force would also enable the arrest of key traffickers. The U.S. military, which trained the Afghan army, would assist in moving the soldiers there and provide outer-perimeter security. The U.S. military would not participate directly in eradication or arrest operations; it would only enable them.

But once again, Karzai and his Pentagon friends thwarted the plan. First, Anthony Harriman was replaced at the National Security Council by a colonel who held the old-school Pentagon view that “we don’t do the drug thing.” He would not let me see General Lute or Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, when the force-protection plans failed to materialize. We asked numerous Pentagon officials to lobby the defense minister, Abdul Rahim Wardak, for immediate force protection, but they did little.

Consequently, in late March, the central eradication force set out for Helmand without the promised Afghan National Army. Almost immediately, they came under withering attack for several days — 107-millimeter rockets, rocket-propelled grenades, machine-gun fire and mortars. Three members of the Afghan force were killed and several were seriously wounded. They eradicated just over 1,000 hectares, about 1 percent of the Helmand crop, before withdrawing to Kabul.

This spring, more U.S. troops arrived in Afghanistan. They were effective, experienced warriors — many coming from Iraq — but they knew little about drugs. When they arrived in southern Afghanistan, they announced that they would not interfere with poppy harvesting in the area. “Not our job,” they said. Despite the wheat shortage and the threat of starvation, they gave interviews saying that the farmers had no choice but to grow poppies.

At the same time, the 101st Airborne arrived in eastern Afghanistan. Its commanders promptly informed Ambassador Wood that they would only permit crop eradication if the State Department paid large cash stipends to the farmers for the value of their opium crop. Payment for eradication, however, is disastrous counternarcotics policy: If you pay cash for poppies, farmers keep the cash and grow poppies again next year for more cash. And farmers who grow less-lucrative crops start growing poppies so that they can get the money, too. Drug experts call this type of offer a “perverse incentive,” and it has never worked anywhere in the world. It was not going to work in eastern Afghanistan, either. Farmers were lining up to have their crops eradicated and get the money.

On May 12, at a press conference in Kabul, General Khodaidad declared the 2008 anti-poppy effort in southern Afghanistan to be a failure.

Mr Schweich's solution?

That is where we are today. The solution remains a simple one: execute the policy developed in 2007. It requires the following steps:

1. Inform President Karzai that he must stop protecting drug lords and narco-farmers or he will lose U.S. support. Karzai should issue a new decree of zero tolerance for poppy cultivation during the coming growing season. He should order farmers to plant wheat, and guarantee today’s high wheat prices. Karzai must simultaneously authorize aggressive force-protected manual and aerial eradication of poppies in Helmand and Kandahar Provinces for those farmers who do not plant legal crops.

2. Order the Pentagon to support this strategy. Position allied and Afghan troops in places that create security pockets so that Afghan counternarcotics police can arrest powerful drug lords. Enable force-protected eradication with the Afghan-set goal of eradicating 50,000 hectares as the benchmark.

3. Increase the number of D.E.A. agents in Kabul and assist the Afghan attorney general in prosecuting key traffickers and corrupt government officials from all ethnic groups, including southern Pashtuns.

4. Get new development projects quickly to the provinces that become poppy-free or stay poppy free. The north should see significant rewards for its successful anticultivation efforts. Do not, however, provide cash to farmers for eradication.

5. Ask the allies either to help in this effort or stand down and let us do the job.

There is another solution, because this one has a lot of wishful thinking associated with it. "Inform President Karzai", "Karzai should issue", "Karzai must order"...this is the President of a supposedly free and independent nation and an ally of the US. NATO should do a deal with the Taliban and Mr Karzai, and get troops out. The US made a bad policy decision to enter Afghanistan militarily in the 1980s (Edit: bad in hindsight, of course there were Cold War issues then). They should continue intelligence efforts, bribes and the other assorted activities to keep the warlords at each others throats and not let any single entity become over-powerful. And this should be combined with a credible policy in Pakistan to aid the civilian government against the FATA warlords. And yes, try to stop the import and use of opium products in the west. Decrease demand, and watch the supply disappear.
--

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what?! (#106960)
by timothy

There is another solution, because this one has a lot of wishful thinking associated with it. "Inform President Karzai", "Karzai should issue", "Karzai must order"...this is the President of a supposedly free and independent nation and an ally of the US. NATO should do a deal with the Taliban and Mr Karzai, and get troops out. The US made a bad policy decision to enter Afghanistan militarily in the 1980s (Edit: bad in hindsight, of course there were Cold War issues then). They should continue intelligence efforts, bribes and the other assorted activities to keep the warlords at each others throats and not let any single entity become over-powerful. And this should be combined with a credible policy in Pakistan to aid the civilian government against the FATA warlords. And yes, try to stop the import and use of opium products in the west. Decrease demand, and watch the supply disappear.

Your 'solution' is ( very much like Bill White's solution in Iraq) :

1. do the Afghans an emotional favor/flattery by supposedly 'admitting' their free and independent status

Problem with that assessment: they are not free or independent: they are slaves to failure in the guise of religion and dependent on those lies ..to avoid the mere emotional negatives that those in the West might know something they do not. The money is the drug that keeps them in the dreamland of "I'm just as good as.." while false religion rapes them day and night.

You seem to be following the "strategy" of the civil rights template that has never once resulted in true freedom for those who even now support it as if it had. They are still angry, still poor (in the whole truth of what poverty is) for the most part, and still trying to be "as good as" --which means the whole policy FAILED.

True brethren in no way seek to emulate each other in that manner. The whole effort is to make true brethren. The whole model you seem to be advocating only reflects the success of those who prance around as liars advertising themselves and their own lifestyle as a type of Utopia that ought to be copied by anybody and the path there is always emotional as opposed to real. Fake royalty seeks to advertise itself and catches many in that trap. Real royalty seeks to minimize governance and make all true brethren so that none seek to be like others but all are unique and cooperative in that absolute uniqueness they already have rather trying to ditch it in favor of copying another. It is not at all a true success to merely have Afghanis in peculiar hats and clothes doing the lockstep of liars "the Afghani way" and rejoicing in weird language, music and dance steps at having done it. Islam is a failure as social policy in that regard and every regard.

If you really think that is what "the West" wants ..you are quite beside yourself with delusion and have only spoken what you think the West wants as a taunt in that you must think we are despicable people and yet who want to be copied as that despicable character.

2.Keep bribing.. keep paying.

I suppose it a small thing for the indigenous people of ( insert ..anywhere and everywhere ) to know that money comes from somewhere and it ain't free. Paying bribes is the exact thing those in the article you quoted warned about:
it pays the victim of sin for the disease of avarice and greed as if they were not victims of sin but wise for doing evil --as doing what they thought those of the West lived as ideal lifestyle.

We've got people setting us against each other that are not part of the overt "sides" of the war. Your response to the problem of drugs is to pretend those people don't exist and the "sides" are in some existential arena of reality called free will that just happens to coincide exactly with the LIES we are all fighting, yet as if those lies were the path to peace between "sides".

If it were a matter of emotional stuff: you insult the West, you denigrate your own family; you malign being a human being when you use the tools of those who set peoples wrongly against each other as a kind of policy initiative.

Wake up. We're not as evil as you make out. You aren't either and I never thought that about you. I knew you were lost. But I never hated you that I should set you up in some prissy crap of "free and independent" like an ignorant child getting raped as merely handing you off to wicked overlords because it was easy to wash my hands of you and your whole lostness.

You should have a cartoon of a man desperately holding onto another man because he is forced to by God, the other man is dangling off a cliff and people gathered to watch the whole thing are shouting to the man dangling that the other is denigrating him on purpose and ought to either pull him over the edge with him or cut off his arm. If he does it all the people shout "Praise Allah!" ( or Kali) as the man dies on the rocks --as if they celebrate a victory on his behalf merely because they were offended when they saw they had been deceived generations ago as if that were the fault of the man God was using to hold on to the dangling man and they had "got even".

Ecc 4:1-3 And I returned and saw all the oppressions that are done under the sun: and behold, the tears of the oppressed, and they had no comforter; and on the side of their oppressors was power, and they had no comforter. Then I praised the dead who are already dead more than the living who are yet alive; and more fortunate than both is he who hath not yet been, who hath not seen the evil work that is done under the sun.

In the Name of Jesus Christ, Amen

I only skimmed this comment (#107000)
by catchy

but enjoyed the false religion + child rapin' blips on my visual field.

i think my subconscious wants you to keep it comin'.

I suspect (#107004)
by aireachail

(and yeah...I'm goin' way out on a limb here)

that your subconscious is gonna be sated.

stuffed.

packed to the gunwale.

--

Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham

Why the Afghan war has gone badly -- allowing the drug trade (#106686)
by dmbeaster

But once again, Karzai and his Pentagon friends thwarted the plan. First, Anthony Harriman was replaced at the National Security Council by a colonel who held the old-school Pentagon view that “we don’t do the drug thing.”

I have wondered what the rules of engagement are for US forces should a Taliban force attack a drug caravan of one of the Karzai supporting drug warlords. I suspect we would de facto act to protect the drug shipment by protecting the warlord from the Taliban while doing nothing to interdict the drug shipment. Maybe that has changed recently, but what has the policy been over the years since 2002?

It has been obvious since Bush shifted focus from Afghanistan to Iraq that the Afghan situation was headed for failure, for this one reason. Allowing narco-warlords to re-establish themselves in Afghanistan was a sure fire recipe for long-term instability -- it is only a matter of time before the Taliban sees the error of its former drug eradication ways and adopts narco-terroism (it allegedly already has to some extent -- what better way to finance an insurgency?).

How can there be a serious security plan for Afghanistan which allows the drug trade to thrive? It has been a collosal stupidity by the decision makers for the last 6 years. I can understand Pentagon reluctance to involve themselves in it, but how can any serious military thinker concerned about stability in Afghanistan ignore the drug issue?

I suspect that the door has long since closed on the opportunity to do something about it. It seems unclear how Afghanistan can be fixed now.

The problem is that NATO needs the warlords. (#106735)
by mmghosh

We all do. Our country supports Karzai as much as anyone else, more, in fact, since he has close links with here. The problem in Afghanistan is that no one has any other option. No one really wants to enter troops in the cold desert mountains, so that, in a sense, every local and strategic player in that region has to have their own local clients - the US included.

In Praise of Mao,The Devil Did Good, Queen Victoria was a Pusher (#106582)
by Traveller

...the Cultural Revolution, Korea, Mao's promise to Ho Chi Minh to intervene in Viet Nam if the US came north of the DMZ...thus Guaranteeing the defeat of America and the death of 59,000 brave American Soldiers...all of my life has been haunted by China...

But likewise China from the West. It is impossible to read and understand The Opium Wars, (book highly recommended), and not fathom China's deep distrust of the West and everything it stands for.

As the book notes...if Colombia by force of arms compelled the United States to allow in a free flow of Cocaine....how would we feel toward Colombia?

From the reviews of the Opium Wars:

The Opium Wars is a well written chronicle of the shameful period in the nineteenth century when Great Britain sank to the level of an international drug cartel. The British Empire forced China's Qing Dynasty to allow huge shipments of opium into its territories in order to reduce Britain's huge trade deficit. The details of how Britain contributed to the decline of China are astounding but well documented.

and this:

While the British ignore this sorry episode and Americans are largely ignorant of it, the Chinese remember Western aggression and their victimization all too well. Opium plagued China for another century, although most was home-grown by 1900. On the eve of World War II 10% of the population was addicted, with 30% of Hong Kongs population addicted (Not the image of efficient British colonial administration, is it?). Massive opium addiction did not end in China until the Communists brutally cracked down on it after their 1949 victory. The authors conclude, The Great Helmsman just said no.

*******

Which is not to note and admit that Opium is one very fine drug...but England and America were pushers.

Just sayin`

Traveller

I still don't see a problem (#106534)
by HankP

with buying/eradicating the opium crop and paying off the farmers. Let's assume that the dollar figures of the value of the drug are inflated (as they always are) and that we could purchase the entire crop for $2 billion/year. That means for what we spend in one month in Iraq we could eliminate 90+% of the world opium supply for the next six years. That seems like a good deal to me.

Demand reduction is just not going to work. From what I read, there's a serious heroin problem in Iran - if they can't control it, with harsh drug laws including the death penalty for trafficking, I don't see other countries being any more successful.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Mr Schweich puts his finger on the problem. (#106538)
by mmghosh

Payment for eradication, however, is disastrous counternarcotics policy: If you pay cash for poppies, farmers keep the cash and grow poppies again next year for more cash. And farmers who grow less-lucrative crops start growing poppies so that they can get the money, too. Drug experts call this type of offer a “perverse incentive,” and it has never worked anywhere in the world. It was not going to work in eastern Afghanistan, either. Farmers were lining up to have their crops eradicated and get the money.

As for reduction in demand, I don't think Iran is a huge generator of cash for opium - although it is an interesting point about what deterrents work. I don't have exact figures but it would appear most of the money comes from the West. I'll do some digging, though, and get back.

Edit: There has to be a solution to the narcotics demand issue. Using human nature as a reason for the problem surely cannot be enough.

A slightly different solution... (#106630)
by Soothsayer

Instead of paying farmers for eradicating poppies, it might be better to simply pay them a premium for growing legitimate crops like corn and wheat. The premium would probably not be enough to make growing these crops more lucrative than growing poppies, but combined with a zero tolerance policy of eradicating poppy fields and imprisoning those who grow them, the carrot and stick approach might work.

--

"In large states public education will always be mediocre, for the same reason that in large kitchens the cooking is usually bad."~Nietzsche

I like that. (#106639)
by aireachail

I haven't seen that approach suggested before, but it sounds like a good one.

Kind of a bummer though, that I'm going to spend so much time during the rest of the day trying to tease out the flaws to this strategy.

--

Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham

Well, sure (#106553)
by HankP

establish a totalitarian dictatorship and man the border with troops, then test people at random and kill anyone who has even a trace of illegal drugs on them. I'm not willing to take that route, though, and I doubt many people would.

I still think $2 - 3 billion per year is pretty cheap to eliminate 90+% of the world's opium supply. My guess is that if you looked at the direct and indirect costs worldwide it would be pretty close to a wash.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Ha. They recover a lot of drugs (#106731)
by mmghosh

with that approach in Pakistan and Iran - I believe the World Drug Report 2008 says that the highest recovery of drugs is from those two countries.

Do you agree that paying artificially high prices for procurement of wheat will work? Isn't that pretty much bucking the market considerably - plus it will have to be continued for a pretty long length of time.

It may work (#106734)
by HankP

the reason I like my approach better is that it directly targets the poppies themselves, and doesn't depend on a lot of other factors to work in order to see a shift from poppy cultivation to wheat cultivation.

As I linked earlier, that approach doesn't work in Iran, they appear to have a serious heroin problem. It did work in China, my guess is that Iran has a more porous border. Even so, no one has figured out how to destroy demand, just how to manage it to a greater or lesser extent.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Biological approach (#106928)
by Weyland

Introduce pathogens/pests specific to opium poppies to the region.

--

For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin

No, I don't like that one at all (#106935)
by HankP

there hasn't been a good record when it comes to introducing pests, and I don't think our understanding of the grammar of DNA and biochemistry is complete enough to start messing with tailored organisms.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Looks like (#106969)
by Weyland

a biological control program was already underway, and cancelled.

Here

Your example of the problems with an introduced species does not map exactly to mycoherbicides, nematodes, and other biological pest/crop controls which need specific host species or groups of host species.

--

For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise - B. Franklin

True (#106977)
by HankP

it's an example of gross incompetence. I still think there is a chance of many unintended consequences when introducing a non-native species, though. I haven't heard of a program introducing non-native species that worked without serious side effects.

--

I blame it all on the Internet

Curious about that (#106541)
by catchy

it has never worked anywhere in the world.

I'd like to see data.

farmers keep the cash and grow poppies again next year for more cash.

So? If it's cheaper to buy them out this yr. it will be cheaper to buy them out next yr.

And farmers who grow less-lucrative crops start growing poppies so that they can get the money, too.

First, it still might be overall cheaper to absorb some of these costs. Second, many of these farmers didn't have the balls to get into the drug trade in the first place. Even with relaxed enforcement, calling their bluff and refusing to pay for their crop might still keep some farmers out.

Still, 'perverse incentives' does look like a prob. + we'd do better to attack things on legalization end here.

We used to grow the most opium here. (#106544)
by mmghosh

For the Chinese market. From Sun Yat Sen onwards, that market closed, and Mao locked the door. Since then, its not been a major issue here - of course there is always some grown clandestinely.

From my POV, demand reduction worked once, and it could/should work again.

at what cost? (#106546)
by catchy

demand reduction worked once, and it could/should work again

I assume this is demand reduction via law enforcement.

Unfortunatley, we've had signiificant probs when the gov. is given the power to override property + privacy rights in certain circumstances.

And really there hasn't been any proportional reduction given stronger enforcement anyway.

Unsurprisingly, I have little to no qualms w. outright legalization.

Essential reading for all. (#106550)
by mmghosh

The World Drug Report 2008

I'm fairly libertarian about drug use, and I do not think draconian measures work either.

>50% of the world's opiate users are in Asia (9.3 million) - of course, a large part of this is unrefined opium such as we take it here. Next largest is Europe, but here we are getting into heroin territory. Russia contributes 1.6 million and the US 1.2 million. Heroin use is decreasing to stable in Britain, Germany and the US from very highs in 2000. Use in Russia and South Africa is rising.

Its also interesting that the price of street heroin is also falling - is this the result of dramatically increased production? Afghanistan now supplies 90% of the world's product. Production in the Golden Triangle has gone down. The Afghan trade needs to be stopped.

one thing that's interesting about that report (#106581)
by catchy

is that Mexico + Afghanistan have roughly equivalent levels of poppy eradication measured in 1000s of hectares, but Afghansitan's output is 50-60x higher.

also interesting that opium use has fallen off in the US. As a cultural thing, I think heroin use is features less in music + movies than in the late 90s (where's the equivalent of trainspotting or a new kate moss?)

I'm just waxing here, but I bet it's harder to live in NYC + SF as a junkie than it was 10 yrs. ago. Too many of the neighborhoods have been co-opted by office workers/fully gentrified. These are trendsetting areas of the country. And if you want to pay rent, you better try uppers.

LA is still nice and wide open for yer herion types tho. Go LA!

I can answer this one pretty quickly (#106563)
by catchy

Its also interesting that the price of street heroin is also falling - is this the result of dramatically increased production?

Demand is stable overall...

Global opium production ... reached record levels in 2007.

So, yep.

Deleted (#106555)
by catchy

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