Obama reverses position on Iraq?


Per the McCain campaign:

"Since announcing his campaign in 2007, the central premise of Barack Obama's candidacy was his commitment to begin withdrawing American troops from Iraq immediately. He campaigned in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country reaffirming this pledge to the American people.

Today, Barack Obama reversed that position proving once again that his words do not matter. He has now adopted John McCain's position that we cannot risk the progress we have made in Iraq by beginning to withdraw our troops immediately without concern for conditions on the ground. There is nothing wrong with changing your mind when the facts on the ground dictate it. Indeed, the facts have changed because of the success of the surge that John McCain advocated for years and Barack Obama opposed in a position that put politics ahead of country.

"Now that Barack Obama has changed course and proven his past positions to be just empty words, we would like to congratulate him for accepting John McCain's principled stand on this critical national security issue. If he had visited Iraq sooner or actually had a one-on-one meeting with General Petraeus, he would have changed his position long ago."

I'm just not seeing it folks.

Nothing in Obama's two press conferences yesterday leads me to believe that he has abandoned his stated goal of removing all US combat troops from Iraq over a period of sixteen months, in favor of adopting McCain's open ended commitment to maintaining the current troop strength come what may to continue GW's elusive search for 'victory' in Iraq. The statement is irrefutable proof that Republicans don't do nuance (a situation unlikely to change under a McCain administration) and confirmation that the press are incapable of reporting nuance in the face of counterfactual information fed to it by Republicans.

Please make it stop!

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

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Spartacvs, First, I want to (#101850)
by Brooks and B Ra...

Spartacvs,

First, I want to be clear on what exactly your position is.

The other day, Obama said "I have always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed. When I go to Iraq and have time to talk to the commanders on the ground, I'm sure I'll have more information and will continue to refine my policies."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR200807...

Are you saying:

1) that Obama's explicit position, both previously (throughout the campaign) and now, is that he is absolutely committed to withdrawing all combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months of his taking office?

OR

2) that Obama's explicit position, both previously (throughout the campaign) and now, is that if withdrawing all combat brigades within 16 months of his taking office would jeopardize stability in Iraq (during the withdrawal or thereafter), he would abandon his 16 month timeline?

I find either view to be delusional, quite frankly, but I'd like to be clear on which you're contending.

Please see my comments here http://theforvm.org/diary/bird-dog/obama-more-waffle-this-time-super-siz... and here http://theforvm.org/diary/bird-dog/obama-more-waffle-this-time-super-siz... . And if you can produce quotes from Obama over the course of the competitive portion of the primary campaign taking the position that "the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by...the need to maintain stability", please do. (and I've addressed in my second comment at link above the closest I've seen that Obama has come).

I can't emphasize enough that "the need to maintain stability" is essentially the McCain/Bush/conservative rationale for rejecting the "we're leaving per this timetable no matter what" policy expressed by Obama throughout the primaries. In other words, the primary rationale of those (of us) who reject the "announce that we're leaving ASAP no matter what and then do so" position is that they (we) don't want to do so if (1) Iraq would be likely to descend into chaos and full-blown civil (or possibly regional) war (the opposite of "maintining stability"), and (2) there is a reasonable chance that we can avoid or substantially mitigate such an outcome if we continue to maintain a large force there, at least for now. If Obama is now making the pace of withdrawal contingent on ("dictated by") our need to maintain stability rather than NOT contingent on such a need, that is obviously a fundamental shift in position, and a big move in the direction of the position of McCain/Bush/conservatives.

I think if folks are just going to reflexively and absolutely defend their guy and attack the other side's guy no matter what, the value and quality of discourse is diminished. Better for all to be reasonable, to try to avoid double standards, etc., and to concede a point when the facts and common sense point strongly in that direction. Otherwise, all we have is the blog equivalent of CNN's Crossfire and similar programs, in which folks on each side hurl talking points and related arguments at each other without seriously considering what the other "side" is arguing and without making a serious effort to be reasonably objective. And that's much less interesting, informative and worthwhile than debate/discussion among people who are really listening and seeking to be reasonable.

Perhaps it's less emotionally satisfying for some to acknowledge the valid points made by the other "side", to concede/admit/acknowledge your guy's mistakes/failures/weaknesses or the other guy's strengths, or to do the same on policy matters or philisophical matters (perhaps for some it feels much better to keep things more black & white, which one and one's side being the good guys, of course), but I'll take reasonable disussion/debate over that kind of Crossfire stuff any day.

16 months is not a policy (#101853)
by Spartacvs

its simple math.

The policy is one of withdrawal and the abandonment of the previous administrations goals (permanent bases, military confrontation with Iran, exploitation of Iraqi oil) and the use of coercive military force absent meaningful regional diplomacy, the same goals and methods proposed by John McCain.

As a side note on debate here at the forvm. You would do better to make your arguments and allow them to stand or fall on the merits rather than maintain the annoying habit of asking questions narrowed to elicit the only answers you want to hear.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Spartacvs, As a side note on (#101867)
by Brooks and B Ra...

Spartacvs,

As a side note on debate here at the forvm. You would do better to make your arguments and allow them to stand or fall on the merits rather than maintain the annoying habit of asking questions narrowed to elicit the only answers you want to hear.

If you (and some others here) cannot appreciate the relevance, appropriateness and usefulness of legitimate questions from me seeking clarification of your views or challenging the premises or logic of your arguments, then you can refuse to engage substantively with me. Not my problem. I'm seeking intelligent, rational, substantive, interesting discussion/debate. If you don't recognize approaches to such dialogue when you see them, or are reluctant to engage in such a manner because you are uncomfortable with an approach that may reveal weaknesses in your arguments, I suppose you'll insist on keeping a safe distance from such questions, although THAT is what is "annoying", not the questions I ask.

I state my positions and arguments plenty, and I've done so here on Forvm. Sometimes, though, I ask questions either (1) to better understand someone else's argument or confirm that my understanding of it is correct, or (2) to challenge that argument by testing if the premises are valid and the logic is correct. It's hardly an approach I invented. Been around for literally thousands of years. Check out "Socratic method". And you should note that such a method is very often superior to two people simply stating their respective positions and arguments, because the latter often never gets around to a proper exploration and evaluation of the merits and validity of either position and related arguments (rather, people just talk past each other). Additionally, sometimes the person asking the questions doesn't even have a firm position, and is trying to elicit the best arguments on one side or both to consider in forming his own opinion.

I don't always use the Socratic method, but sometimes I consider it the most useful, and I'm more than willing to be on the other side of the questions when I've made an argument or stated a position and someone wants to take that approach with me.

I think most people who are resistant to answering such questions -- and who are "annoyed" by it -- are really just fearful that if they engage via such an approach some weakness in their argument (particularly some self-contradiction) will be revealed, and they'll be faced with the choice of either conceding some point (or perhaps even much of or the whole position), which they really, really don't want to do, or finding some way to be evasive to avoid such a concession/admission even though they have found that they cannot defend their argument/position.

And as for my questions being "narrowed to elicit the only answers you want to hear", I don't narrow questions inappropriately. Sometimes matters of principle (not the case in my questions to you re: Obama on this thread, but was the case in the "torture" discussion) can and should be looked at in isolation rather than mixing in extraneous variables. That may be something that one either gets or doesn't get, or perhaps I just lack the patience or ability to effectively explain it to someone who doesn't get it. As for my questions above re: Obama, I thought about adding a third option of "Something else", but given how hard it is to get a direct answer out of some people (including you, apparently), I chose to limit it to the two most likely arguments, and I assumed that if it were "something else", you would explain that to me.

As a note, my questions to you above were not an application of the Socratic method, but merely an effort to determine which of those two (or something else) is your argument. But if you are uncomfortable or afraid to answer a simple, straight-forward question seeking clarification of your argument, obviously I can't force you to do so. I see absolutely no legitimate reason, though, why you would refuse to answer my question.

Having said Allllll that, I realize that it's possible that I'm right re: all of the above, but that taking such an approach on some occasions may be annoying to some, most, or maybe even all folks here (although I know at least a couple of commenters here who have an appreciation for the Socratic method and of my use of it). And I say, ok, if some folks are "annoyed" by my efforts to engage them in a sophisticated form of discussion/debate, and even some (even most, if that's the case) find me "annoying" as a result, I can live with that. What I won't do is dumb down my comments to the least common denominator just to avoid "annoying" people with such an approach. I realize that may come across as arrogant, but you suggested I cease an "annoying" practice, and I'm responding frankly, not with the intent of being insulting, but just to respond clearly.

Just my opinion (#101872)
by Spartacvs

which you don't have to agree with.

Such questioning will always elicit the "Something else" response from me, because I will not be boxed in by someone else's framing of the issue under discussion, just sayin'.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Seems like you're actually (#101873)
by Brooks and B Ra...

Seems like you're actually giving yourself credit for being evasive. Plus, even if you think that a yes/no (or multiple choice) question is not phrased exactly as you would phrase your answer, you can still answer as directly as possible while still expressing your views completely accurately and fully. You haven't even done that much in response to my question regarding your assertion regarding Obama's position. Apparently you just don't feel comfortable with the type of challenge posed by questions seeking clarification of your positions/arguments or questions that challenge the premises or logic of your arguments. Such questions -- and to an even greater extent, hypothetical questions such as those I posed on the "torture" thread -- create a sense of insecurity in some people that is not created by explicit counter-arguments, because it's unclear where the questioner is headed, because such questions may reveal that your reasoning is not internally consistent (i.e., that you are being illogical by disagreeing with yourself), and because you cannot shift the debate to the other persons position and arguments rather than defending your own when the going gets rough. I'm not saying all of the above necessarily apply to you, but I think as a general rule they apply to people who are very resistant to answering questions about their arguments (particularly, but not limited to, hypothetical questions, which my Obama questions here were not).

In any case, since you brought up that you thought my questions were "annoying", let me say that I can think of nothing more annoying in a forum of political or philisophical discussion/debate than when someone makes an argument and then refuses to give direct answers (to the extent possible) to direct questions about that argument.

16 months is not a policy (#101874)
by Spartacvs

its simple math.

The policy is one of withdrawal and the abandonment of the previous administrations goals (permanent bases, military confrontation with Iran, exploitation of Iraqi oil) and the use of coercive military force absent meaningful regional diplomacy, the same goals and methods proposed by John McCain.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Huh? And you're actually (#101878)
by Brooks and B Ra...

Huh? And you're actually copy & pasting your prior response as if it was an actual answer to my question?

I can copy & paste, too, so I'll do so with my question, but I see no sense in doing another lap beyond this point. If you wish to actually answer my question at some point, great. If giving straight answers to straight questions about your arguments ain't your thing, so be it.

If this helps, the key (obvious) distinction between #1 and #2 is that #2 makes his withdrawal timetable contingent upon such a timetable not jeopardizing "stability", and #1 is not. See?

My original question pasted below dotted line.
-------------------------------------------------

First, I want to be clear on what exactly your position is.

The other day, Obama said "I have always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed. When I go to Iraq and have time to talk to the commanders on the ground, I'm sure I'll have more information and will continue to refine my policies."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR200807...

Are you saying:

1) that Obama's explicit position, both previously (throughout the campaign) and now, is that he is absolutely committed to withdrawing all combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months of his taking office?

OR

2) that Obama's explicit position, both previously (throughout the campaign) and now, is that if withdrawing all combat brigades within 16 months of his taking office would jeopardize stability in Iraq (during the withdrawal or thereafter), he would abandon his 16 month timeline?

Both of your questions (#101889)
by Spartacvs

are tied to the 16 month timetable.

The sixteen months are not as important or as substantive as the change in mission from an indeterminate commitment under Bush/McCain to one of responsible withdrawal of combat forces under Obama's plan. In other words 16 months is the best case estimate for the withdrawal of combat forces which Obama has committed to achieving, but its only an estimate - a target, not the last word.

Other elements, including the safety and security of US troops both those withdrawn and the residual force, and yes maintaining sufficient stability in Iraq are more important than sticking to an exact 16 month schedule. Semantics aside, I don't accept the framing of your second question that any adjustment to the 16 month schedule proposed would amount to an abandonment of the change in policy Obama is advocating.

Perhaps the better question that might reasonably be asked of Obama is - would a return to instability cause you to suspend or revise your timetable to remove combat troops from Iraq? As far as I can tell however, no one in the media or on the right is asking this question, preferring instead to make the ludicrous claim that Obama is inching toward the Bush/McCain plan.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

To quote a frequent commenter, (#101907)
by Bird Dog

I'm scoring this as unresponsive.

When Obama says, "[m]y guiding approach continues to be that we’ve got to make sure that our troops are safe and that Iraq is stable," Obama has just forged new ground because he added the conditional "that Iraq is stable" and it directly conflicts with he's said in the past. Just a year ago, he said he would withdraw all troops even if there was genocide.

Also, right there on Obama's website, in a section titled "Barack Obama's Plan", comes these words: "Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months." By Obama's own words, this isn't math, it's a policy, and it's tied to a 16-month timetable. Why are you denying that it's not a policy when his website explicitly says that it is?

--

"I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead." -- Paris Hilton

The policy is withdrawal (#101926)
by Spartacvs

and eliminating the element of direct military coercion along with the demands on Iraq implicit in the old policy. The estimate, target, timetable for withdrawal, call it what you will, is 16 months.

Spot the difference?

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Look, as I've been saying, (#101891)
by Brooks and B Ra...

Look, as I've been saying, this boils down to two very simple questions:

Is Obama's plan to withdraw all combat brigades per -- roughly -- a 16 month timetable contingent upon our doing so NOT jeopardizing "stability"?

And is his answer to that question essentially the same now as it was during most/all of the primary phase?

I'm asking YOU for YOUR answers to those questions, and my patience is dwindling, which perhaps is what you intended (a battle of attrition to avoid giving a direct answer).

Yes (#101946)
by Spartacvs
Indeed (#101854)
by M Scott Eiland

If he were to continue doing that--say, by saying things like "don't bring up the Butler Report"--that might annoy people. We can't have *that*.

--

You lost me (#101855)
by Spartacvs

Is there a link you forgot or a point you were trying to make?

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Nope (#101859)
by M Scott Eiland

Just counting on the memories of the readers. If that fails, using the site search function using the search term "butler report" should be enlightening.

--

Why so coy? (#101863)
by Spartacvs
That's All Right (#101922)
by M Scott Eiland

I have supreme confidence in the ability of the commenters here to search their memories or to use the search function to discover what it is I am referring to.

--

I wouldn't. (#101929)
by Punditus Maximus

Selective memory seems to be a recurring theme.

--

It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.

Hey, I've Certainly Got no Problem (#101374)
by AndrewSshi

Acknowledging that Obama's plan always has been and always will be to throw Maliki et al. overboard come 20 January 2009. I certainly wish that he wouldn't, but complete unconditional withdrawal, consequences be damned, is what the Democrats (and to be fair, most of the American voters) want.

Maliki needs to be thrown overboard, he wants to swim. (#101382)
by BlaiseP

As I see it, as long as the Americans are propping him up, he's seen as a stooge, a mere procurator. The reality on the ground in Iraq, as I understand it, is this: the Americans are in the back seat, and they like it that way. The more the Iraqis push back against us, the more viable they seem. We want them to push back. CENTCOM and State are acutely aware they won't get a pro-American regime in Iraq. At best it will be neutral and probably somewhat hostile. Iraqis have every reason to be sick and tired of the Americans at this point: we've overstayed our welcome for at least four years.

So yeah, we will withdraw from Iraq, and fairly quickly as these things go. Our new priorities are in Pakistan, where they should have been since 9/11.

Okay, I agree with Just About Everything You've Written (#101396)
by AndrewSshi

We need I MEF in Helmand, and we need it there yesterday. I just think that "We're gone no matter what" is a less effective way of getting extricated than withdrawal that still offers air and logistical (and some artillery) support provided that the government doesn't do anything grotesquely horrible or stupid.

Hell, if Obama were to promise, say, 20 to 30k support troops in Iraq to keep it from going all to #@$% plus a massive redeployment of assets to Afghanistan, I'd more than happily vote for him. Hell, I'm close to holding my nose and voting for him in spite of my misgivings about too quick an Iraq withdrawal.

And I'm still bothered by the fact that Obama's withdrawal was formed as part of a "declare defeat and get out" plan. I wish that he would at least acknowledge that things have changed somewhat since 2006 when they were finding 30 to 40 bodies a day throughout Baghdad and the western half of the city was a collection of mini-Ba'ath republics and Al Qaeda emirates. I don't like that his policy is a mirror of McCain's, i.e., that the plans don't change regardless of what's going on in Iraq.

Ecch, by any measure, this isn't a war to be won or lost. (#101403)
by BlaiseP

Most battles aren't. We Americans are used to big winnable-or-losable wars, Iraq doesn't conform to this model. It never did. There's a reason why Nation Building is to be abhorred: armies don't build nations. Eventually even the Romans left Britannia. Look what followed them, a bunch of warlords styling themselves as Dux and Rex and wearing the purple. This isn't a battle where Winning or Losing are even possible outcomes.

Clausewitz tells us never to go to war without understanding the war we're about to fight. Sun Tzu tells us there's no winning a protracted war. The only people "winning" this war in Iraq are the hordes of contractors. Get them out first. Get them out tomorrow.

Let's face a few facts here: I'm a Progressive, a Liberal Democrat, a veteran, and an ex-Republican who thought Reagan was a traitor for selling arms to Iran and dealing with terrorists. I was tarred and feathered by my fellows, and I have an abiding hatred of the current Republican Party.

I had a grudging admiration for John McCain, long ago, he seemed to have a pair of testicles. I didn't like his positions, but he was a man of honor, such as it was. Sure he'd made mistakes, Keating Five, his personal life isn't anything to write home to Mother about, but hey, he was a tough old dude who got angry at the right people. He exhibited bipartisanship when it wasn't cool.

Why would any sensible Republican ever vote for McCain? That's what intrigues me. There was a day when the Republican Party still had a place for the individual, before they started in on all these loyalty tests. That used to be anathema to Republicans. Conservatives always had a natural fissure in their ranks: on one side was a quasi-Libertarian and on the other a neo-Burke-ian. Where's McCain on these issues? Everyone accuses Obama of being a tabula rasa, but McCain's coyly avoiding answering any questions about his Conservative credentials, and that fissure has not gone away. Especially on the matter of Iraq, the old-line libertarian camp says we shouldn't be nation-building and the old-line Burke-ian would say we ought cut the Gordian Knot of occupation. Neither side of the fissure should be supporting this war. Why do they do it?

Oh, There are Definitely Ways to Lose (#101491)
by AndrewSshi

Izzat al-Douri marching triumphantly into the Green Zone would be a nice, clear cut loss. So would, say, the establishment of AQ emirates throughout Anbar, Diyala, and Ninevah. And I tend to think that Obama should try to finesse our pull-out in a way that keeps the above two from happening.

There's a difference between "Hooray, we win, everything is puppies!" and "We need to get out in a way that doesn't cause even more death and mayhem than the last five years have." I would just like to see Obama distance himself enough from his base to adopt a position that is closer to the latter.

Izzat al-Douri is a nobody. (#101501)
by BlaiseP

He has about as much pull as the old Cuban expatriates in Florida. Ba'ath Party politics are being run from Syria, not from his little hideout in Lord knoweth where, probably Khartoum in Sudan. Should he stick his head up in Iraq, the Shiite SCIRI mukhabarat will fix his little red wagon. The Ba'ath Party is banned in Iraq and the Tikriti clans are woefully sunk. al-Douri's the least of your worries. Far more interesting and sinister figures roam the landscape, and they lead the Sons of Iraq. They will not allow that old monster into their leadership circles.

You can stop reading from the Neocon playbook any day now. It was always stupid, right from the get-go. Wolfowitz and those ignoramuses -- whatever they say, believe the opposite.

There will be no AQ emirates anywhere in Iraq. The big clans will take over the newly discovered oil and gas fields in al-Anbar Province, notably the al-bu Fahad clans of Ramadi. The Shammar of Mosul are their enemies, and of late, we've been part and parcel of a round-up of Shammaris for the benefit of the Kurds and al-bu Fahadis.

The death and mayhem was inevitable, as inevitable as the collapse of the Balkans on the death of Tito. These things do straighten themselves out, given time. It was a simple application of Boyle's Law of Gases: Saddam kept a small minority in power by setting many sides against each other. Once he was gone, the pent-up rivalries were again allowed out into the open.

Here's more likely what's going to happen. The Kurds in the north aren't terribly united right now, and they've been oppressing their Turkomen. They control one set of oil fields, but can't extend much further south. They'll probably have to do deals with the Shammari. In the west, the new oil and gas fields will enrich the previously destitute Sunni tribes. In the south, the port of Basra will become a bone of contention: Iran will make its hardest push for influence among the Basrans and make very considerable headway there. But Baghdad won't stand for it: they'll keep Iran at bay. The Shatt al-Arab will again become an armed standoff. Don't forget, Khorramnshahr is still in ruins: that was once Iran's chief oil port. The Arabic Iraqi mullahs will sit in the catbird seat: they own the holy cities and they'll achieve some rapprochement with their Farsi brethren through the good offices of Marja Sistani.

Don't worry about Al Qaeda. They'll be extirpated or absorbed into the Iraq-to-come. It's almost here: once the Americans get out, and we will, then Iraq will have some measure of peace. Oil and gas production out of Iraq will probably quadruple: these new oil and gas fields are completely undeveloped. They will inject money by the truckload into the wretched Sunni towns, and Iraq will become a reasonably prosperous nation with Shii and Sunni interests well-watered by the rain of oil money soon to descend on them all.

"Why do they do it?", Blaise? (#101459)
by Jay C

Simple: the idea of promulgating a new round of wars in the Mideast - with the Great National Freakout over the 9/11 attacks as a handy all-inclusive excuse - was just too good to pass up. For a number of reasons, IMHO: but the main and overriding one wrt Iraq seems to have been its marvelous exploitability as a political issue domestically.

In one fell swoop, Republicans could earn themselves bonus political brownie-points by trumpeting their own patriotic virtuousness in "supporting the Commander-in-Chief", and "supporting the troops"; and - a vastly more important factor, IMHO - being able to paint any opposition (Democrats) as wimpy sellout loser-defeatist DFH peaceniks - whose "radical" and "anti-American/pro-terrorism" views would swiftly lead to their immediate marginalization, and the cementing of the Permanent Republican Majority for the rest of our political lives.

IOW, partisanship over principle (and/or philosophy). Shouldn't be a surprise, really.

Are Maliki et al. (#101381)
by Spartacvs

Iraq's best chance for peace and stability going forward and who should be making that determination in consideration of whose interests?

As long as we remain in a position to deny AQ a base of operations in Iraq, I say let the chips fall.

--

GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.

Nonsense - John Cole lays this piffle to rest (#101376)
by Bill White

Open Thread
By: John Cole July 3, 2008 at 4:23 pm

Sorry, I am just not feeling it today. I suppose I am supposed to be hyperventilating about this Obama statement:

“I’ve always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed,” he said. “And when I go to Iraq and have a chance to talk to some of the commanders on the ground, I’m sure I’ll have more information and will continue to refine my policies.”

But, since that is what he has said all along, I guess I just can’t find it in me to freak out. I guess I suck at being a Democrat.

--

Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.

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