Was Palin the Best Republican Investment?
Palin and the McCain campaign survived the debate. I doubt we'll see much of her again, maybe a few softball interviews and one heavily-controlled press-conference just to give her experience with a press conference. I'll be quoting 538 a bit in this blog:
The big question is: putting aside Sarah Palin's final comment about how great more of these debates would be, how much exposure will Steve Schmidt allow her? With the exception of a few short, scripted rally speeches, vis-a-vis the press will she go straight to Dick Cheney's bunker, do not pass go, do not collect $200?I suspect she will. Despite what I view as the correct, hammering demand to have Palin face questioning in a press conference format from the grand old men of the blogosphere, Josh Marshall and Andrew Sullivan, I don't suspect the Obama campaign will much push the issue, and the McCain people have to be scared to death to have any more Couric-style answers out there. They want to lock this performance in and keep it in stasis.
This would be good for Palin. Let her get some learnin' and practicin' in for future battles before facing the tigers again. I imagine she has a host of political handlers putting together plans and getting ready to approach her whenever their impatience finally overcomes their sense of propriety regarding McCain's decaying campaign.
There's still a month to go, but barring a real stroke of fortune, I don't think McCain has any gambles left that won't leave him worse off.
And I get a sense from the Republicans that they feel this way too. They've written McCain off. The last big moment of this election year was seeing Palin make it through the debate okay, and now they're going home to watch football, baseball, or hockey.
538 talks about McCain's ground team in Missouri -- which is listed as a "pink" state on 538's map -- I take it meaning that it's in play but leaning toward McCain.
To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of ((Ed: Obama to McCain)) offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.
All that said, the McCain campaign has accomplished a major feat: it turned Sarah Palin into a star.
This strikes me as a new feature of the political landscape, using the VP pick of a candidate that doesn't have much chance of winning in order to set the VP up for the future.
I think the Democrats accidentally did this in 2004 -- and likely Palin was something of an accident too. But I bet we'll see this done more consciously in the future because it strikes me as very successful.
So, McCain's VP pick can be seen as an investment in the future of the Republican party. Here's someone you're going to give a bunch of attention to.
Who would you have preferred to shine the spotlight on?
Given the last 48 years, I'd have to say that Palin's not a bad pick, tactically. Personal charisma is an invaluable asset, quite possibly a dominating asset, and she's young enough that she can easily run in 2012 or 2016, depending on how much of a lock Obama has on a second term.
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Here.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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)I'm such a slacker...
Thanks for that link. Best read I've had this morning.
And yep; Helen's definitely p'd off.
--Excess on occasion is exhilarating. It prevents moderation from acquiring the deadening effect of a habit. - W. Somerset Maugham
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| parent )Palin on the attack in Florida -- this McCain could undermine what good will she has and damage her career:
Very creepy.
If Palin riling up audiences to the point where they're yelling "KILL HIM" starts making the YouTubes that'll wipe her out except for the Anne Coulter audience.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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)McCain seems startled but simply moves on . . .
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )do you have a longer version of this? Judging from this clip, his last line seemed like an off the cuff quip to the more boisterous members of his audience.
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )of the audience is my understanding.
McCain didn't say it but he allowed it to go unchallenged.
I grabbed this clip via Andrew Sullivan and do not have a longer version at the moment.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Just to help clarify for Elagabalus -- audience member shouts it at second 13.
McCain/Palin needs to get out ahead of this stuff. If some new Timothy McVey shouts stuff like this out at a rally they're speaking at, or some new Weathermen shout it out at a Dem rally, then the speaker needs to pound home the point that this ain't the way we handle things in a democracy. That this sort of outburst gets you put on Secret Service and FBI watch lists.
We should remember that until 9/11 the most serious threat of terrorism was domestic -- and, in my opinion, the most likely source of future terrorist attacks in the U.S. will also be domestic.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )The worst part of your post was the attempt at evenhandedness with the Weathermen reference. Don't worry -- we'll put all the extremists on watch lists! Bipartisan consensus at its finest.
Yep, this is how I see things going.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )I heard that part loud and clear. My question is about his last line in the clip-"Ask a simple question like that and you all you get is a barrage of insults". Was he talking about Obama supporters when asked "who is Barrack Obama?" or was he taking a shot at the guy in HIS audience?
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )there seems to be only hushed silence right after he says it but without a longer clip it's hard to tell ...
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )How long before something even more embarrassing - racially charged perhaps? - gets called out at a mccain or palin rally?
Likely, or an inevitability?
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| parent )And Sarah Palin appears to have simply smiled and declined to kill the buzz . . .
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )Hopefully the news will get some of this crap on tape soon. One month to go. Any of you folks on the right side of the aisle have anything to say about this? Shouldn't mccain say something?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602935.html
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| parent )I saw that one too. Here's the charming story:
If Palin's handlers let McCain establish "Kill Him", racial epithets, and "Sit down, boy" as her national brand, her career won't be so rosy after all.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )"Kill him" and "Sit down boy!" represents straight talk from the maverick kind of folks who like mccain/palin. I hope the media starts getting this stuff on tape ASAP. A whole month to go.
The sick part for me especially was the very loud and clear shout of "terrorist" related to Obama. Mccain paused, and went on. So now it's OK to have your opponent loudly called a terrorist at one of your speeches. I guess the Straight Talker feels he doesn't have to even respond to this garbage. What a weasel.
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| parent )None of her fans have a clue how close she is to going to jail, here. Of course, that's nothing new in a politician, I'm thinking about the William "Freezer" Jefferson thing. So disgraceful to see the Black Caucus rally around that crook. But where's the Republican outrage about Palin's going into her ex-brother in law's personnel folder? Hell, anyone else would need a warrant.
As long as Palin keeps on breathing fire and outrage, nobody will notice what a dirty vindictive little crook we're looking at here. This woman belongs in jail, and may very well end up in one.
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| parent )Always.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )you thought the people who have been calling him a radical Muslim jihadist and a Marxist were just kidding? Or that they'll just quietly concede defeat?
Whether they get riled up enough to overcome their basic cowardice is an open question, though.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )-- it'd make a nice poster too: HATE vs HOPE
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )To see the end of this awful horrid joke, a joke currently being played on all of us who are forced, even for a millisecond, to take her seriously. Or worse, watch people who know better pretend she is something other than she is.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )who will vote for her just to enjoy "screeching from the nutroots" and the types who want to simply cheese-off the libruls. And the ones who will not vote for a black man and will vote for whomever can beat him.
They simply don't care about palin, one way or the other. Plenty of those around, Harley.
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| parent )is there anything left other than pi&^ing off liberals? Except for the pure racism, of course.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Controlling everyone's sex lives.
Other than those three things, no.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )NY Times Op-Ed weighs in:
There follows a bit of a premature (but likely accurate) postmortem on McCain's campaign, then some discussion of Palin quotes that seem to demonstrate her ambition.
Then closes with what could be perhaps McCain's last chance to truly throw the dice high:
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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)How many women would we guess McCain has had in his life?
And now one is having him.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )It's a wash as to her current value. She energized the base, which is a big plus, particularly when your last ditch strategy is to turn this into a base election. But on the other hand, Mitt Romney might've come in handy when the election turned to the economy.
As for the future, we'll be rid of her after the first Tuesday in November. (Either way, actually, but I'm going to assume a positive outcome, for me.) There will be a groundswell of support for a run at the WH in 2012, funded by Fundies. And she'll no doubt make a run.
But then...
This is a woman so lacking in the ability to answer basic questions relating to her competence that she will proceed through this campaign without holding a single press conference. This is not acceptable behavior in a candidate running the primary gauntlet. She'll be ill-prepared for the daily blizzard of opportunities to reveal her basic ignorance. This is a woman so lacking, that her team negotiated her single debate into a canned recital of talking points. Can you imagine Governor Palin attempting to navigate the almost weekly debates that occur during a primary season? She may wink her way out of the first couple. But sooner or later....?
All she'll do is remind the GOP that they in fact have a candidate with basically the same world view but also a functioning brain.
In other words, her run for the WH in 2012 will probably help Mike Huckabee to the nomination.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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)"lacking in the ability to answer basic questions relating to her competence"
...
"ill-prepared for the daily blizzard of opportunities to reveal her basic ignorance"
...
"All she'll do is remind the GOP that they in fact have a candidate with basically the same world view but also a functioning brain."
If any of that were relevant, then GW Bush would have been crushed by Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 04. But that, er, gibbering idiot and his operation pulled it off twice. If this country can elect George Bush (twice!), then there are really no more surprises.
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| parent )I have seen this vehicle sticker gaining in popularity on my recent travels.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Here:
Her appeal is gonna wear off faster than anyone expects.
--To think is not enough; you must think of something -- Jules Renard
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| parent )This may be the one election in US history where a sizable slice of the electorate votes on the basis of the VP candidate and not or perhaps even despite, who nominally heads the ticket. Would standard polling even be able to catch such a dynamic?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I don't think Palin would get beyond the base at this time -- so I do think she'd poll worse than McCain.
She needs to subject herself to serious grilling by the media and move to the center on her abortion views and maybe some other stuff.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )would be one that compared the VP candidate against the head of the ticket amongst the Republican base.
I'd be willing to bet the Obama camp would like to see such a poll conducted and made public too, who might they use as a cut out to hire some Republican polling outfit to get it done?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I doubt there's much mystery there. What dwindling support McCain has left largely prefers Palin -- except the independents, who'd jump ship if Palin was pushed to the front.
That would result in a smaller, but more motivated camp of Republican voters.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )for Democrats to commission a poll, Frank Luntz?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )The translators trying to unmangle her "English" into any comprehensible form for foreign leaders that don't speak English? I'm only half snarking here.
The look of Putin's face would be priceless.
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| parent )But she described Palin as “scary” and said that their running mates matter
Link
John McCain has been throwing too many "Hail Mary" passes and choosing Sarah Palin is one of the biggest of the bunch.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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)Palin excels at lying. If she can learn to tone down her folksiness to an appropriate level and she takes the next couple of years to learn how to appear competent she will be a formidable opponent in 2012. (2016 is too far away for her)
My guess is she will write a book after the election. Do a big book tour to keep her name in the news. Fox News and the wingnuts will go crazy over the book & tour. It will be a best seller easily. She then bides her time in AK until she gets re-elected in 2010 and then she start running for Prez.
In 2011/2012 we will probably be in a recession or just recovering from one. Obama and the Dem Congress will have a lot on their plates in the next four years. The Repubs do very well as a minority party and they will have years to lay the blame for whatever is going wrong in 2011/2012. Palin's superstar status with the wingnuts means she will sail through the primaries. Her lying savant personality will mesh perfectly with whatever the R's decide to lie about in 2011/2012 and she may very well find a way to tape into some type of national discontent.
I hope the troopergate mess leads to Palin being impeached. She scares me a LOT. If she is Governor of Alaska in 2010 she is the favorite to be the R nominee in 2012.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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)I thought successful liars were supposed to be, y'know, popular.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )I look at Palin like a great minor league prospect who gets called up to the majors too quickly. When that happens you don't blame the rookie for not doing well, you blame the organization for moving too fast. If Palin has more time to hone her skills she will be a tough opponent in 2012.
It is easy to see in hindsight, but McCain & Co. failed Palin not the other way around. If Angry John had vetted her at all they would have been prepared for her problems. If Angry John had put Palin in front of the Press since the beginning she would have worked her way through her problems. Instead, Palin was put into a position she wasn't prepared for and her talents were not utilized.
People have short memories. Palin 2.0 could be a very good politician. I doubt she will ever be a competent leader, but look who won the last two Presidential elections.
--But she's a queen, and such are queens
that your laughter is sucked in their brains. -D. Bowie
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| parent )that republicans are looking forward to a president Trig, several decades from now, commissioning a likeness of his momma in the granite mountainside of Mt. Rushmore next to Saint Ron and George.
"They're just like us!"
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)for her to stay in the national limelight(or even the shadows of said limelight) the next 2-4 years should she and her running mate lose. Sure her name will pop up when the yearly National Governors Association Meeting arises, but outside of that.....
Also, a hypothetical, lets say Bush Senior lost to Dukasis (I know, wild wild hypothetical). Does anyone think Dan Quayle would have been at the top, near the top, or even in the middle of the list of possible contenders for the '92 race?
I'd say he would have been on the list. Maybe even in the middle of said list. He was a current US Senator(reelected in '86) so he would have had the necessary national exposure for him to "rehabilitate" his image from the "potatoe" persona that electoral season portrayed him as. I don't think there would be anything to get him to the top of that list or even over the hump of nomination. BUt, at least he would have had 2-4 more years on the national stage dealing with national issues and staying in the public eye.
Palin, OTOH, will go back up to Alaska to enjoy her new born and give testimony to a state congressional investigation that may, or may not, take a turn for the worse.
She will become the Trivial Pursuit answer, the Katrina and the Waves one hit wonder of this 2008 Presidential campaign.....Walking on Sunshine only to go back home to 6 months of darkness.
--~At times like these I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates when he said...."I drank what?"
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)There's no there, there.
It would be one thing if McCain wins and she gets to remain on the national stage as the VP and receive 4 more years of preparation and intensive on the job training. But quite another if McCain/Palin lose, which is beginning to look the more likely. In which event Republicans are looking at a minimum of 4 years in the wilderness with the party leadership again up for grabs and only the Congressional midterms on which to focus their energies, in the context of which Palin largely becomes an irrelevance.
I don't believe Palin has exited the R base with anything of substance intrinsic to herself, or that her popularity will survive the current moribund state of movement conservatism should the two mavericks fail to secure the Presidency. Rather Sarah Palin simply reverts to her pre VP selection status, goes back to AK and is forgotten.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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)That's what the opposition kept saying about Obama.
Obviously I (and all right-thinking people) disagree, but I also think we pretty much had that opinion about GW Bush for the last 8+ years.
I firmly believe even if she cannot survive an interview harder than Larry King, she will be a permanent fixture of conservative politics -- if only by getting some position on TV.
However, if she can get as good on national policies as she is in the Alaska debate on Alaskan polices, then she'll have achieved the Bush threshold.
Video is long but interesting -- I think Palin got her "constitutional right to privacy" idea from Knowles in this debate (somewhere around minutes 10-15 I think in there):
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )How does she do that and maintain a presence on the national stage as the Gov. of AK?
Bush won the Presidency, if he'd lost to Gore we would never have heard from him again either.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )If I were her handler I'd recommend a senate run.
It's a gamble since she'd then have votes that could be held against her -- but the national policy experience and exposure would be valuable and the, ahem, beautiful thing about the senate is that you can be from nowhere and still count.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )I don't doubt she could easily secure a Senate seat, but what is she going to do when she gets there? Do you honestly believe she has the wherewithal to achieve the status and do the heavy lifting of an Obama, a Hillary Clinton or a John McCain to facilitate a run at the Presidency?
I would think that after the experience of Bush, even most Republicans would now realize that it's simply not enough to put all their chips on the candidate of a successful promoter like Rove and nominate someone they merely think can win. The candidate also has to have some demonstrated level of competence on the national stage and be capable of governing. Either a candidate starts out with the inherent qualities to not only run a successful campaign but also govern (Obama, H. Clinton, McCain) and build on that during the campaign or they start with a more or less blank slate (Bill Clinton) and prove themselves on the campaign trail. I don't see either applying to Bible Spice. She's Bush in a dress.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )right now, people can project whatever they want to see onto her, after a term in the Senate not so much.
I just don't see Palin heading a ticket. The neocons and the business wing wouldn't be willing to go with her, and the party isn't going to run a pure culture warrior type. I think she'll always be limited to second banana.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )But I think the benefits outweigh the risks. What she needs in the future is the appearance of legitimacy. She'll make allies amongst the Repubs in congress and likely get put on good committees or sub-committees, sent on respectable overseas missions, and so on, her party will work towards that and she'll repay them by showing up at fund-raisers.
And I agree with catchy on the other part.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )it's worthwhile to notice, though, that prior to this election it's quite rare for a Senator to win the Presidency - only Kennedy and Harding as far as I know. The problem for her is that Alaska is remote enough and different enough that it doesn't make the best governorship to use as a springboard for national office.
Now maybe she'll become a political sensation and sweep the primaries in four years. I doubt it, though, she still has a majority in the polls who feel that she's not capable of handling the office. As much as Dems don't like McCain, Romney or Huckabee I doubt they'd have numbers anywhere near that high. I don't see how she gets that legitimacy without giving up the excitement that the base feels.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Does anyone know about senators who've also been governors?
Though the last time that happened was probably so long ago that it's not relevant to modern elections.
I agree about the competence angle. But she's got base-excitement to spare if she needs to trade that in via moving to the center on social issues and getting some Senate stench on her.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )Was a two-term Governor of Oregon and then went on to a 30 year Senate career, retiring in 1996. There might be others, but he's the one I know.
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| parent )is that it appears the base is shrinking. When I look at electoral maps and see North Carolina and Indiana in play, that tells me that there are a lot more persuadable people out there than I thought there would be.
A lot depends on Obama of course. If he has a successful term or two, that might permanently put those states into the swing state category and remove a couple of current swing states into reliably Democratic.
I just think we're moving past the point where appeals to cultural conservatism are anywhere near enough to win elections anymore. Basic competence may be making a comeback.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )"Do you know the surest way to go broke? Keep getting an increasing share of a shrinking market. Down the tubes."
That's what the GOP is doing now. They're getting more and more white men to vote for them as the percentage of white men in the electorate gets smaller and smaller. This election could be the tipping point, the end of Nixon's southern strategy as a plausible way to win a national election.
--Guard, protect and cherish your land, for there is no afterlife for a place that started out as Heaven.
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| parent )One thing that I think they're really blowing it on is that much of the social conservatism of the GOP would actually be quite appealing to many ethnic groups, especially recent immigrants. The GOP should be able to get better representation there.
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )Eventually they GOP is going to have to decide to move away from catering to their racists. At this point, I don't even think their percentage of the electorate is that high, but even if it's just five percent, losing it will mean a lot of pain for the Republicans in the short term. But they're going to have to take that pain or become irrelevant as a national party.
A similar issue for the Democrats, although not as critical, is gun control. Gun control is a losing issue. Most people outside of the blue urban areas either don't care about it or are vehemently opposed to it. As the Dems move into the mountain west they need to shake the reputation as gun grabbers if they want to win consistently.
--Guard, protect and cherish your land, for there is no afterlife for a place that started out as Heaven.
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| parent )Federal registration supporting local regulation.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )...is that precisely when the concerns of racists become most prominent (a plural society) is when those concerns become a political liability. And in the absence of leaders willing to publicly advocate for the positions, they will find fewer new adherents, leading to a double decline in the voting bloc's power.
That's some brutal game theory.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )...probably lie in illegally arming a terrorist group responsible for gross human rights violations. So far as I can tell, there is no surer way to win conservative hearts and minds.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Neocons = naif easy to manipulate re: foreign policy. Cf. Bush.
business wing = she hates the secular institution that is the federal gov. it's the problem, not the solution. Imagine if we had the government running healthcare, etc. That's exactly the riht attitude.
I imagine they'd be reticent to back her b/c she's a risky investment -- who knows what she might do to discredit herself.
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| parent )I'm pretty sure the neocons aren't too happy about Bush, he kind of took their agenda off the table for the foreseeable future. I'm also not sure if the business types are too comfortable with a populist, even a conservative one.
I agree with you, I think both of them would just see her as too risky, the same as how they look at Huckabee. There are other candidates that are more reliably with the program.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )At this point, she was so paralyzed she wouldn't even name any newspapers or magazines she reads. Obviously someone put some scare in her... I'm sure, no matter how dumb she may seem that she actually has read a few different papers and publications in her 45 years. Why so scared to mention a few?
She's not going to be a senator. Too much stuff she can't deny if that happens.
She'll stay Fox-Urine Scent Barbie of Alaska, Doggone it.
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| parent ). . .of the big story of the day with one of our favorite regular guests--Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska."
Listening to all of the screeching from the nutroots every time her face appeared on the screen would just be a bonus. She might single-handedly finish off Olbermann by triggering the One True Temper Tantrum, and Single Issue Andy would undoubtedly be dragged off raving to the loony bin before the first year was up.
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| parent )well, is there anything besides pi$$ing off liberals?
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )there's a storehouse of saved links to various posts that are just gonna tear the roof offa this place when the time is right! Wait and see!! Wailing and gnashing of teeth and all that.
Just a guess. In the meantime, the word is MUM.
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| parent )
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )Have you ever posted that before? I sure don't remember seeing it prior to this gut-bustingly funny occasion. It's nothing if not original.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )This pic link just might become even more useful in a few weeks.
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| parent )Here's how I see it with my mod hat on: suggesting that much conservative chatter revolves around a mean-spirited desire to spite liberals seems true and worth discussion.
Suggesting (or imputing) that a commenter here is driven by spite and pettiness is right out. Suggesting commenters here might be "sore losers" is out.
Given that I just warned you guys for suggesting Brooks should be on Ritalin, you should both know that either of you could be suspended for the mildest of infractions at this point. Unless you really need the vacation, I'd try being extra super dooper polite from here on out.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )"is driven by spite and pettiness"
Doesn't look like they have to suggest anything. Or did you not notice that the majority of his comment, as usual, was devoted to relishing the fact that something might, paraphrasing his own words, make his political opponents screech, go insane, or just keel over?
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| parent )I was funnin' around but was suggesting the Spite soda pic would apply to democratic-leaning posters... in other words, myself. I still predict, and have publicly here, several times, that mccain/palin will narrowly win.
Also, sorry, mea culpa.
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| parent )as long as it isn't used to suggest a fellow commenter is the one being a sore loser.
Also, it isn't cola. It's a lemon-lime beverage. Sour.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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| parent )You need a 12 Step Program. That made no sense at all.
--Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. -Mark Twain
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| parent ). . .to follow the posting rules regarding not insulting fellow Forvm commenters. Since Jordan's front-paged and stickied diary didn't get the message across, perhaps a week off to ponder the rules will. Of course, you're free to appeal to Tomsyl and Jordan to reverse the decision.
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| parent )based on this definition of a 12-step program, which is just what I thought it was.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )that your comment made no sense at all either as a response to my comment nor in the context of the diary as a whole. Unless you were merely attempting a funny? In which case, ha ha. Nice one.
Having said that, I don't believe I'm qualified to offer medical advice over the intertubes and would not therefore concur with Dr. Spin's attempted diagnosis, nor the treatment he recommended.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )"You need a 12-step program" is not. Pretty simple IMO.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent ):)
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Your last post is like reading a rebus. But not fun. I'll try though!
Category: Palin
Screeching=1
nutroots=1
Olbermann=1
One True Temper Tantrum=??
Single Issue Andy=WTF?
loony bin=1
Score=4???
Maybe sports is a good topic for you to stick with.
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| parent )I could decide to take that last line as a direct insult, given some prior comments over the years on your part, but I won't. However, I'll put you on notice that any *future* comments in that vein from you--or anyone else--will be considered direct insults, with the accompanying consequences.
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| parent )Sarah Palin is a star? I mean, yeah she has a certain amount of charm and charisma, but come on man. Just because she was able to stick to her canned answers and didn't get totally undressed in the Veep debate that doesn't put her on the fast track to national political stardom.
Get back to me when she can give an interview to a reporter who isn't in the tank for the GOP and not embarrass herself.
--Guard, protect and cherish your land, for there is no afterlife for a place that started out as Heaven.
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)I'm reading with bemusement some of the comments comparing Palin to Obama, or insisting that she'll be the next GOP star. If she loses this election, she will not run for national office again. If by some chance she does, she will lose again. That's my prediction.
All the wingnuts currently gushing over her (often in spectacularly creepy fashion) will find other hobbies after Palin returns to the obscurity from which she was so unfairly plucked.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )If she loses this election, she will not run for national office again. If by some chance she does, she will lose again. That's my prediction.
Sarah goes on to host the daytime TV talk show, "Sarah!"
Sort of a conservative version of Oprah. She's a natural, and I think deep down it's what she always wanted to do.
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| parent )She doesn't want to meet + talk to people from different walks of life.
She likes her small, mostly religious circle up in Alaska + has lived there as a big fish in a small pond w/out any serious curiosity re what swims in the ocean.
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| parent )What's unfair about 2 weeks at debate camp? Sounds like a blast.
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| parent ). . .of blocking off the blind alleys that would have been Romney and Huckabee. If McCain loses and the Republicans have to start building up a field of candidates for 2012, Palin will be an obvious candidate, as will Bobby Jindal--and Romney and Huckabee will be the experienced politicians who lost badly to the guy who lost in 2008, and therefore dead dead dead politically. Which is a massive net plus for Republicans, IMO--Romney is an empty suit and Huckabee is an inferior William Jennings Bryan knockoff, and Obama would be leading either of them by fifteen points right now regardless of who their running mate was. No need to give them a second chance to simultaneously suck and blow.
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)Ronald Reagan lost the GOP primary in 1976: we know what happened to his political career. And I remember a terrible speech given in the early 1990's at the Democratic national convention by one William Jefferson Clinton, who didn't do too badly himself later on.
Not that I disagree with your assessment of both Romney and Huckabee; just pointing out that a spectacular failure early on doesn't preclude later success.
As for Governor Palin, I think she's toast nationally if the GOP loses in November. After the last eight years, and given the challenges to come, I suspect that competence will be a much more highly valued quality than "folksiness." That quality didn't help the current inhabitant of the White House out much at all.
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| parent )As for Governor Palin, I think she's toast nationally if the GOP loses in November.
Yes, however she shall remain the sweetheart of the Dr. Dobson brigades and threatens an acrimonious 2012 GOP primary.
Sarah Palin simply is another Mike Huckabee with less substance and FAR more sex appeal.
--Fence post turtles -- They don't get up there by themselves, some moron had to put 'em there.
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| parent )I disagree with most of his views, but Huckabee comes across as genuinely affable and likable as a person... much more so than Palin. Not to mention he seems far more intelligent.
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| parent )Seriously. I like him. Wouldn't vote for him in a million years and memories of childhood and the SBC give me the willies...but he seems like someone who would be able to have a decent and fun time with.
Palin..I know women just like her. Exactly like her, from the school committees to the soccer field. No thanks.
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| parent )he appears to be far less divisive and polarizing, no matter what his actual views may be.
But the Rs seem to hate him. Dodged a bullet on that one, I guess.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Palin's a tool; wind her up and she goes. But she keeps the hooples happy. Huckabee's One Of Them, and he's just too smart and charismatic to be easily contained.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )The true religious fundies in the GOP aren't Christians, they're Club For Growthers. Huckabee is on the record as saying "the poor ain't so bad". No way the solons of the GOP will allow him on the national ticket.
--Guard, protect and cherish your land, for there is no afterlife for a place that started out as Heaven.
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| parent )Brevis esse laboro, obscurus fio.
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| parent )Tho I'm told you have similar chins
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| parent ). . .and--IIRC--got a standing ovation at the convention: not quite the same.
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| parent )little twerp.
Can't get elected as Commander in Chief® being a small little twerp.
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| parent )I used to think that the first black president would be Republican -- well, obviously I'm not thinking that now : )
But, seeing this election, I'm concerned that Jindal (despite his skill and leadership in La.) might have a real problem.
Would he lose West Virginia and Kentucky, recently Republican strongholds, to a Hillary Clinton (or any other Democrat)? If he has troubles there might that be symptomatic of problems elsewhere -- would it just be giving up all those Reagan Democrats?
--Steven Palmer Peterson
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| parent )The thing about Obama is that I'm convinced that any significant "Bradley effect" will be due to poll respondents:
--not being willing to vote for a candidate as liberal as Obama, and;
--not willing to admit that they're not voting for him, because he's black and they're afraid that the pollster will think they're racist.
Jindal already won statewide office in Louisiana--a state that not so long ago gave David Duke over 40% of the vote for a US Senate seat. I'm confident that he can do well in other states, and if he's running against Obama in 2012, the race issue will presumably be a wash.
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