Apparently, the Minority is going to roll out
an interesting response to the current financial troubles. They will emphasis a new insurance regime, changes to the tax code and the mark to mkt accounting rules amongst the changes.
Require the Treasury Department to guarantee, at up to 100 percent, bank losses resulting from failed mortgage-backed securities originated prior to the plan's enactment. Such insurance, supporters say, would provide immediate value to the securities and a foundation for which they could then be sold. The Treasury Department would finance that insurance by assessing a premium on outstanding mortgage-backed securities.Allow companies to carry back losses arising in tax years ending in 2007, 2008, or 2009 back five years, generating a tax refund and immediate capital
Allow a "repatriation window" for profits earned by U.S. firms overseas. Such repatriation amounts would not be taxed if invested in distressed debt (as defined by Treasury) for at least one year.
Allow banks to treat losses on shares of preferred stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as ordinary losses, not as capital losses
Suspend the capital gains tax rate for two years
Limit backing of high-risk loans by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Schedule Fannie and Freddie for privatization
Suspend "mark-to-market" accounting until the SEC can issue new guidelines that will allow firms to mark these assets to their true economic value
Stabilize the dollar by repealing the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act, which alternative bailout supporters say diverts the Federal Reserve's attention from long-term price stability to short-term economic growth
Require the Treasury to write rules prohibiting excessive compensation or golden parachutes to executives of failed companies
Task the SEC with regular, annual audit reports of entities the federal government has brought under conservatorship or now owns.
The economic concept of "price stability" is a very powerful tool. All in, this is an exceptional plan and it should be fully vetted.
--
"Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much." Ob
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References -

Put to bed by Thomas Frank in the WSJ.
GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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)of themselves caused the meltdown. That is not the case. The circumstances under which people who didn't qualify for conventional loans obtained subprime loans is relevant to whether any of those people should be bailed out at government expense, an entirely different issue that was snuck into the bill that failed to pass on Monday.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )The piece was written to knock down the argument that subprime defaults of themselves caused the meltdown, as would be clear if you read the accompanying link. This is a growing article of faith within the wingnut community, as witnessed here at theforvm in Timmy's recent diary on the subject.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I did read the article; short, with a number of misstatements and depended on an interview with someone who I don't think is at the forefront of these issues. But anyway, reread my lede and comment to see your error.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )...for pointing out what is, in all probability, the stupidest thing that even the egregious Thomas Frank has ever written.
It's not ever day that one is privileged to witness such idiocy, so completely divorced from reality, so straightforwardly expressed.
Unless, of course, one visits the Forvm every day.
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Thomas Frank is an ideologically-motivated liar, and Razib has the goods on him.
Period. End of story.
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )you linked to a rant that linked to other rants with no substantiation. Razib should stick to genetics.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/kansasqjps06.pdf
Whatever.
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )First time I've had the liberal and conservative positions in the US so clearly explained. (Table 2 of the paper).
Also Dr Bartels in another paper
Anecdotally, much of this is mirrored here too (we don't have scientific polling data).
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| parent )Razib Khan pretty much knows everything worth knowing, and is happy to summarize it for you, and/or to provide a link.
This was a particularly good, data-rich, link.
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )Excellent. Some people disagree. Talk about smackdowns on the intertubes!
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| parent )to saying that Franks was incorrect on certain particulars, you'd have a point. But where is the evidence that he's an "ideologically-motivated liar"? There is none, just an emotional rant.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Franks was incorrect on "certain particulars."
Which "particulars" happened to include pretty much all of what he took to be his major points.
I suppose it's at least *conceivable* that his errors were innocent.
Heh.
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )Hank, the tech dude whom I appreciate so much,
Please help here http://theforvm.org/diary/jordan/consider-yourselves-warned#comment-125773 It seems to be screwing up formatting on much of the thread.
Thanks man. You da' man. Man, you're just the greatest.
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| parent )and quit grovelling.
Seriously, though, the mods can fix that sort of stuff too.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Thanks, mang. Good chit.
(that was my Tony Montana voice)
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| parent )actually critiqued the points he made. But why bother, after all that's never the point is it?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )n/t
--God help the while, a bad world I say.
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| parent )Why not do it the Scandinavian way and act like vulture capitalists circling an ailing company?
Here's how it should be done: the govt. takes controlling shares in any company it helps out. the shares are held in trust, and a committee run by Congress, not Treasury, decides when to sell them. All proceeds go into the SS trust fund and/or as direct refund via checks payable to taxpayers (no checks to people who don't pay taxes). The last bill draft I saw had what amounted to a general fund FIFO scheme, giving the taxpayers no control whatsoever w/r/t where the funds went when some profit was realized.
Insurance instead of shares is a terrible idea; the taxpayers only step in when the loans or other assets are so devalued that the insured can't deal with them. Meaning by definition they are virtually worthless by the time the insurance is drawn on.
Congress and the admin. need to study how hard-nosed, remorseless vulture funds treat companies that need cash infusions.
I don't understand your m-t-m point - I thought that's exactly what m-t-m is supposed to accomplish now, under present rules.
Another point to include: a tax on excess corporate compensation. The money spent on golden parachutes is treated as a payout of dividends rather than a deductible expense. California provides a model.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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)That sums up my own thoughts on the bailout, in a much more coherent fashion. I think you are right on the money. I also think that the plan which actually passes will combine the worst aspects of Paulson's bill and the House Republicans'.
--The other day I heard that ignorance and apathy are sweeping the country. I didn't know that, but I don't really care.
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| parent )They'll get roasted alive. Raise unemployment, windfall for outsourcing profits, 100% tax cut for the companies that got us in this mess, triple the SEC's oversight duties making it even less able to do its current job, firms get to set "true economic value" for their assets while ignoring actual market value (extending the problem that got us in this mess), and the whole thing will cost a hell of a lot more than $700 billion.
--Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. -JH
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)That 20% was a tax, a $140 billion earmark, and a crystal-clear indicator that Congress's piggery hasn't abated one wit. The second draft had residential mortgage "relief" hidden in plain sight like The Purloined Letter, giving Treasury incredibly broad power over anyone who can't make their monthly payments. It even allowed one of the several new departments crated by the bill to actually reduce principal due on the underlying loan, at the will of the federal govt.
All three bill drafts suck.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )to attempt some relief on foundational mortgage debt before it hits the multiplier and spirals out of control on Wall St. as it has? Obviously different rules and solutions need to apply between underwater 1st mortgages resulting from ARM's or those simply attributable to falling house values over underwater HELOC's. But what's wrong with accepting some loss while trying to keep the more responsible mortgage holders capable of making some level of payment, in their homes?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )The only way I know of to fix a loss on a defaulted residential mortgage is to foreclose. Even if that foreclosure results in a recovery of less than the full amount of principal, the loss has been fixed, written off as a bad debt, and gone. I would be in favor of writing in a non-recourse provision so that banks could not pursue borrowers for any shortfall w/r/t the foreclosure sale vs. the principal still due on the underlying mortgage, but no one has explained why keeping people in homes that they can't pay for will help one whit. Also, it is totally inequitable, for reasons that are apparent imo. There is no Constitutional right to own a home.
Finally, the depressed home sales market that will result from the foreclosures (it already has in many places) allows new families to buy into homes and inject new money into the banking system by making their monthly mortgage payments, something the people you want to help aren't doing by definition.
What is the basis for your premise that keeping people in their homes who aren't making mortgage payments will have any positive effect on anything except perhaps votes?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Are we in a crisis? Give money to rich people.
Are we out of a crisis? Give money to rich people.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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)that would be disappointing. You should have the most of any of us to say that helps understanding, not the least.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )standing-by in our green room.
Bernard! Can you hear me?
Bernard, there's one question I've been meaning to ask you! What's your View on the bailout? Should we act now or put this baby on the back burner?
--I had discovered a great secret. That everyone loves themselves more than they love anybody else. And if I wanted them to love me, I better be like THEM!... Ken Nordine
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| parent )The bill is irrelevant to the crisis.
--It's impossible to debate if people simply hold beliefs that have no grounding in reality.
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| parent )At least until someone in Congress or Treasury can credibly argue otherwise.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )The insurance scheme is like having a patient being wheeled into the O.R. for an emergency quadruple bypass, and saying "stop! Let's get a blood donation from you first so you don't bleed out."
And practically everything else is just a corporate giveaway that doesn't address the problem at all. This addresses neither liquidity nor solvency problems, and the "mark-to-market" repeal just increases uncertainty.
--More Wagster!
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)paying medical insurance, then stepping in when he needs it, paying the hospital exorbitant rates without bargaining, and giving him a two-week recuperation in Ibiza at our expense, with an open bar and all the coke he can stuff up his nose.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )1. We already effectively nationalized AIG, not sure what this plan does that they weren't doing when they got into trouble. I'm also not sure how charging a premium on an asset of unknown value would work and it would seem that would deplete capital rather than raise it. The problem is if you charge too little it's a bailout and if you charge too much you weaken the company. Since no one knows what the value of the assets are it's hard to see how you'd avoid either one except for blind dumb luck.
2. Yeah, that would generate immediate capital but I'm guessing most of it would go to fund #1.
3. If it's limited to distressed debt I'm not sure how much profit will be involved.
4. Not a bad idea, looks like they shouldn't have zeroed out Fannie and Freddie preferred stock in the first place.
5. Stupid and irrelevant
6. I doubt they're originating much risky stuff, but I'm guessing they're buying it as a sort of silent bailout. This may cause additional liquidity problems with mortgage loans.
7. Unwind them and let them expire. It won't happen for at least 3 or 4 years anyway.
8. Horrible idea. If there's no market how will the SEC come up with "true economic value"? Getting rid of mark-to-market is like punching the doctor when he tells you you're sick.
9. Stupid wingnut wish fulfillment. Repeal will do absolutely nothing one way or another.
10. I agree that excessive compensation looks bad, but I'm not sure how one could write rules that limit compensation without causing other unintended consequences. It's much simpler to just tax high incomes at a much higher rate.
11. I'm actually kind of surprised at this one, aren't all large (as in multi-billion) companies audited annually?
Some good ideas and some wingnut wetdreams. I'm sure some will find their way into the final bill. I still don't see how it solves the problem of determining the value of the assets, that seems to be what has to happen for things to start clearing.
So Timmy, I'll ask you - since one of the complaints about CMOs is that "no one knows what's in them", why not start with the mortgage servicers and just trace where the payments go? That would help to resolve the uncertainty about what they're actually worth, right?
One other thing, what does this do to the international situation - what happens to China and the Gulf States? Do we just tell them "Too bad about those assets you purchased"?
--I blame it all on the Internet
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)as to be laughable, insulting and suggestive of mental illness on the author (of the bill, not Timmy). Good analogy on "punch the doctor when he tells you you're sick"
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| parent )so I'd agree with the mental illness part.
A couple of the non-insane/harmless bits will be added to the real bill to get some votes. You know, the way they let the "special" kids participate.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Is potentially workable.. the gov't needs a piece of the upside but it could potentially be a good way to help stabilize the markets.
But the soundbites today? "The Republicans respond to this crisis by, get this, calling for a suspension of capital gains tax and regulating even less on wall st!"
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| parent )and lots of them. Insurance is for suckers IMO.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Taxpayers end up on the hook for trillions of potential losses purchased by what, perhaps a few hundred million in premiums? How is that a good deal for taxpayers? and probably more likely that any immediate value provided to securities would be in their value as claims submitted to recoup anticipated losses from taxpayer largess.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )And how can a failing company pay cash for them? The whole concept sucks. Who hired these clowns?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )time to pay the piper.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )Both of Hawaii's Representatives voted against the bailout. How about yours?
Speaking of which, what the hee do you mean by saying "you did"? It's "we did", Sparti, unless you are still following the ridiculous meme that everything bad that happened to the economy is the fault of Republicans.
Have you a shred of evidence for that? One that doesn't involve the Senate Banking Committee, or the gang of idiots who ganged up on Chris Shays and beat up the auditor for the Two FMs four years ago? An explanation for the cash FM/FM poured into the pockets of Chris Dodd and Barack Obama, among others? Do you believe Dodd's dumbsh!t act w/r/t not knowing he had received a $75K bribe from Countrywide? Schumer's explanation of his destruction of IndyMac? When do you start taking responsibility for the New, Improved Dem Congress you elected two years ago? 2012?
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )#1 on Timmy's shopping list, what did you think we were talking about? Do you know how Hawaii's Representatives feel about this provision or any of the other House GOP proposals?
I would say that the current financial meltdown is a result of bipartisan efforts, using the same definition of bipartisan that you and BD adopted in attempting to defend the House GOP's vote on the recent bailout bill, but with the respective parties and their influence reversed ie. Mostly a consequence of the deregulatory fervor of Republicans in the Administration and Congress, with an assist from a few noted Democrats.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )I would say that the current financial meltdown is a result of bipartisan efforts, using the same definition of bipartisan that you and BD adopted in attempting to defend the House GOP's vote on the recent bailout bill
Wow, that's a tricky one, particularly since I am opposed to all of these bills on the grounds stated elsewhere. First, the point made by Bird, me and others on Monday's vote against the EESA was not a defense against anyone's vote; it was simply a response to the innumeric, partisan argument that only Republicans were to blame for the fact that the bill did not pass. Second, I am not "blaming" anyone; I did not want the bill to pass either. Whether my two Dem Reps understand what they were or are doing I irrelevant, but it is highly unlikely that they do. Of the two, Neal Abercrombie is smart and shows some signs of independence now and then. Mazie Hirono is a pet poodle, and it was very unusual for her to vote against party leadership.
BTW, you will appreciate that I called each of their offices ans specifically said "I will not vote for his/her reelection if he/she supports this bill." An entirely true statement as far as it goes.
What steps, if any, did the New, Improved, Dem-run Congress take in the last two years to correct the "deregulatory fervor" you describe? Or is two years too soon to expect results from them? After all, it's only the end of the first term for the Dem newbies, and there's been a lot to learn, particularly for the slow ones.
Do you think only your "few noted Democrats" were responsible for calling off the auditors on FM/FM, which ultimately will cost the taxpayers $200 billion over and above the $700 billion Congress is trying to spend now? Is Chris Dodd one of the bad ones in your eyes? Can you explain why there was zero party pressure on him to step down after that $75K bribe from Countrywide came out? Do you believe Congressional Dems should avoid the appearance of impropriety?
Finally, an appeal to the tech side of your brain: What results would you expect if Congress took a mere one-tenth of that $700 billion and invested it in a crash program to develop clean oil gasification, 30% efficiency solar cells, an efficient battery storage system for solar, spent nuclear fuel disposal, or some combination of these? Keeping in mind that about $700 billion leaves the country each year to purchase oil.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )Nobody looking to fix the structural and regulatory problems in the credit markets would have stood any chance prior to the bursting of the housing bubble and the 1st signs of trouble in the credit markets, which happened around this time a year ago. That and the fact that the healthy Democratic majority in the House since '06 faces a still evenly divided Senate and then of course there's the recalcitrant Bush administration we have all come to know and love.
I have a lot more faith and confidence that Chris Dodd will do the right thing regardless of his unfortunate experience with Countrywide, than I have in that scheming hick who sits as his Republican counterpart on the Senate Banking Committee and who regularly pollutes the airwaves with his slack jawed drawl while being incapable of keeping anyone informed about anything, least of all himself.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )A lot of the problem is that nobody knows where the bad mortgages are, therefore all mortgage securities are worth garbage because you can't tell the difference between a good one and a trash one.
We're in a situation where 1% of homes are in default, which is a huge number but it's on the order of a few hundred billion at most even assuming 0 payback for the bank after foreclosing/reselling the house. However, they've polluted a much larger group of securities, on the order of trillions, that nobody wants to touch with a 10 foot pole. So the market value for most of these securities is far below what it should be, because nobody wants to play russian roulette with them, even though many will turn out fine.
That's what makes insuring their value worth considering, and it's what provides the impetus for the TERRIBLE "eliminate mark to market accounting" idea, which would to my mind mean that instead of slow failure over the course of a year like we've seen, we'd get banks hiding their bad paper and an even bigger speculative bubble which pops all at once, boom, when the checks no longer clear.
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| parent )and each of them is essentially a one-on-one contract between the homeowner and the lender he/she met with and borrowed the money from. The CMOs and other MBSs are assignments of the right to receive the income via monthly payments by the mortgagee, meaning there is nothing to unwind to get back to the underlying loans and dealing with defaulters. just a lot of boring accounting, which we should make the government do.
Banks are addicted to CMOs because it gives them interest income spread across a broad spectrum of mortgage loans from across the country. They have to drop that model and go back to servicing the loans they originated as their primary source of interest income. Adjustments to the FDIS/OTS required ratio of cash on hand to money lent out can be adjusted as needed by those agencies; we don' need no steenkin' new bureaucracies.
M-t-m provides a dose of reality and prevents fraudulent asset markups at the time of purchase for, e.g., tax avoidance. There is no conceivable reason to change that policy AFAICS. Doing so clouds the entire picture w/r/t the actual net worth of a given banking institution.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )the best explanation I've read about why throwing out M-T-M accounting is the stupidest thing that could be done right now. It will continue to obscure the extent of the problem and increase the chances for prolonging the crisis and picking the wrong solutions.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )Does anyone know and isn't this at root of the problem?
Does anyone else imagine that left to their own devices, companies struggling to re-capitalize will assess their "true economic value" at some arbitrary level that ostensibly re-floats their boat which simply gets us back to square one.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )due to the lack of an open market, but FDIC requires that some sort of detailed mathematical test be applied, updated to take into account actual performance between bank examinations. So you may be able to fool them once, but if the housing market goes down, your model better reflect that in similar proportion. IOW, it would be hard to come up with an arbitrarily high market value to mark to that passed mustard, particularly today, when the federal govt. essentially makes the market.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )or I should say, it's based on a model rather than a market, and we can see where that approach got us.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )would these be arbitrary or realistic and who gets to decide?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )values, which narrows the BS-ability w/r/t the numbers. FDIC and OTS get to decide for the banks and S&Ls; I assume the SEC does for the so-called investment "banks". It would be difficult to apply pressure to FDIC and OTS on behalf of specific institutions; however, bank exams are highly confidential (Chuck Shumer notwithstanding) so viewing the actual audit review results on a specific institution would be hard.
--Even a dead midget is far from light. - Confucius
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| parent )or hysterical?
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )probably better in fact. I have absolutely no idea what that term means, how it will be determined and how it will be implemented. The cynic in me says that it will be nebulous enough to allow shoveling money at the largest political contributors.
--I blame it all on the Internet
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| parent )with a scheme that re-capitalized the system, giving value to these securities by purchasing them at some nominal value with taxpayer funds, but insured taxpayers for any consequent losses on their investment with a call on the future earnings of anyone partaking in the scheme.
Wall St. doesn't want to look too deeply into these securities, afraid of what they might find. So the government will have to do it for them and provide some working capital to get the credit markets up and running again. But we should levy a charge for that service and indemnify the taxpayers against any ultimate losses.
[edit]
The House Republican shopping list achieves none of that and basically says that if we take a hands off approach and hold our breath, the ship will right itself. Complete garbage.
--GW Bush, leading contender for worst President ever.
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| parent )